Could the Israel-Hamas conflict spark a world war? | GARY COSBY JR.

With the recent attack by Hamas on the nation of Israel, the specter of a serious war emerges. While I do not think we are on the brink of a third world war, if there were to be one, it would begin in the Middle East.

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My mother called me deeply worried about my two sons who are in the U.S. Army. I assured her it was unlikely that we would be sending any ground troops. I don’t think Israel needs the help as they have proved repeatedly throughout their short history, but the possibility exists that America and other powers allied with the nations of the Middle East could become entangled in a growing conflict.

I know many people fear China, but China and the U.S. are not going to war over Taiwan. If we do, it will be a brief conflict waged mostly by the navies of the two nations. It would not likely involve ground forces since the United States will definitely not be landing troops to invade China and the same is true of China invading the U.S. Therefore, there is little likelihood that anything other than a naval conflict could erupt over Taiwan.

Other than the United States, China is the only nation even attempting to build a military of global significance. To do so, they have thrown their own economy into a turbulent, even perilous situation. That was what ultimately doomed the Soviet Union. While China has the largest naval force in the world in terms of the numbers of ships, they are still a regional power rather than a global one.

Russia, the other supposed world superpower has been badly exposed by the debacle in Ukraine. The Russians have not been able to win a border war, much less project real military power. The Russian nuclear arsenal is formidable, but nuclear arms are political weapons. They allow a second-rate country to rattle a sword, but it is a sword that cannot be used for conquest.

A nuclear attack on another country renders that country’s territory uninhabitable and guarantees a reprisal attack that would do the same to the aggressor, so strategic arms are meaningless in terms of military conquest. The only real use of a nuclear weapon is as a vengeance weapon.

This turns us back to the Middle East, the only region where a vengeance attack would even be attempted. Due to the pure hatred between Jews and Arabs and all the military and economic alliances between those nations and the world powers, that is the one spot on the globe where one must have worries in regards to another bloody global war.

The greatest hedge against global war is the global economy. The world economies are tied together so tightly that a major disruption in the economic health of one nation can create a tidal wave across the economies of other nations. Given this, apart from a madman arising in an unstable government with plenty of military power, the likelihood is that money speaks and people want money far more than they want the conquest of foreign lands.

During World War I, the wealth of nations was still mostly held within national borders and in the hands of a political and economic elite within those countries. Economies were not well-integrated even in Europe where countries shared borders but not economic policy or currency. Even in that time of limited economic integration, a major event did have global impact.

The Great Depression shows that devastation to a major world economy, the United States in that situation, could and did spread globally. Can you even imagine the impact of an economic catastrophe of that magnitude today?

By the time World War II began, world economies had integrated to a greater degree, but it was that war that really brought the world into one enormous economic basket with the United States emerging as the world’s wealth generator if not its banker.

The post WWII world is so tied together that a war of any size causes hardship and disruption across the world. This was especially clear at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the economic disruptions that small conflict caused.

Economic integration could also be seen in the flow of money and military equipment into Ukraine, a move that is equal parts the desire to stop a dictatorial leader as it is an effort to maintain the economic stability in the region since Ukraine is a huge producer of food, heavy industrial products, and natural resources.

The Middle East remains the most likely flashpoint for a global war. Unstable governments are more plentiful across the region and some possess enough military power to be disturbing.

In Iran, where religious zealots hold power, there is a real threat to world peace, which is why you see an international effort to keep nuclear arms out of the hands of the Iranians. They are one of the few nations that might actually use nukes as a vengeance weapon, an act that would certainly spark a global military response.

Gary Cosby Jr. is the photo editor of The Tuscaloosa News. Readers can email him at gary.cosby@tuscaloosanews.com.

This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Israel-Hamas conflict becomes a world concern | GARY COSBY JR.