Could NC see a white Christmas this year? A roundup of experts explain our chances

Martha Quillin
·4 min read

It’s as predictable as a change of heart near the end of a Hallmark holiday movie: Every year about this time, we start to imagine what it would be like to have snow on Christmas.

We can thank Charles Dickens and Irving Berlin for our frosted fantasies. Between the snowy London streets of “A Christmas Carol” and the radio ubiquitousness of the song “White Christmas,” it’s nearly impossible not to get nostalgic for that postcard-perfect scene that few of us have ever actually experienced.

But setting emotion aside and focusing on math and meteorology, what are the actual chances of having snow in North Carolina on Christmas?

The parameters: To hedge our bets, we’re including the whole state; flurries count, not just snow that sticks; and if snow falls in the days before and is still on the ground Christmas Day, that’s a white Christmas.

Snow in NC? The Farmers’ Almanac weighs in

Most meteorologists won’t look farther than 10 days into the future with any specificity, but forecasters at the Farmers’ Almanac stand out for the confidence they place in their prognostications months in advance.

Here’s the Almanac’s forecast for the Christmas season, which applies to all Southeastern U.S. states, including North Carolina:

▪ Dec. 20-23: Cold rains from the Gulf Coast through the Carolinas, with some snow in the mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina.

▪ Dec. 24-27: Precipitation lingers into the start of the Christmas holiday, followed by a slow clearing (which means whether it snows or rains in the morning, we can go outside in the afternoon to play with our new toys).

▪ Dec. 28-31: A storm slides north along the Atlantic Seaboard, bringing a threat of precipitation. (We’re including this in case by “precipitation” The Almanac means “snow,” and if so, we can hope they’re off by a few days. Also, a white New Year’s would not be a bad consolation prize.)

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

The website BetCarolina, whose writers are looking for odds to calculate while they wait for the N.C. Lottery Commission to announce a date in 2024 when sports betting will be legal in the state, has come up with some snow stats. The probabilities are based on weather data from 1991 to 2020.

The site came up with the percent chance of nine N.C. cities’ getting at least a tenth of an inch of snow for Christmas, and ranked them in order. They are:

▪ Asheville 11.56%

▪ Winston-Salem 6.34%

▪ High Point 5.88%

▪ Greensboro 5.11%

▪ Raleigh-Durham 1.94%

▪ Charlotte 1.04%

▪ Fayetteville 0.74%

▪ Greenville 0.71%

▪ Wilmington 0.36%

The National Weather Service

Nick Petro, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Raleigh, told us the same thing when we inquired about the chance of a white Christmas that he told the mother of the bride who called to ask if she should reserve rain tents for a wedding next September.

“It’s too early to tell.”

The best Petro could do, he said, is:

  • look at historical weather data (not promising)

  • factor in trends expected to influence the weather in the Southeast this winter (hello, El Niño)

  • hope for the best (Petro likes snow)

“I would say that if you want a white Christmas this winter, maybe move to the North Carolina mountains,” is his advice.

Because of the El Niño that developed this year, the Southeast can expect a wetter-than-normal winter. And while any extra rain in the state would be welcome to counter the effects of this year’s drought, it isn’t expected to arrive until January and February.

Based only on historical data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration dating to 1981, most of North Carolina has less than a 10% chance of having a white Christmas in any given year. But it has happened.
Based only on historical data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration dating to 1981, most of North Carolina has less than a 10% chance of having a white Christmas in any given year. But it has happened.

However, on average, temperatures are now expected to be a bit warmer than normal this winter, so the extra precipitation might not fall as snow.

Meteorologists say that while an El Niño is expected to bring higher-than-normal amounts of precipitation to North Carolina this winter, there also is a 30% to 40% chance that temperatures will be warmer than normal. The occasional winter storm still could bring snow, but it’s too early to say whether N.C. could get a white Christmas.
Meteorologists say that while an El Niño is expected to bring higher-than-normal amounts of precipitation to North Carolina this winter, there also is a 30% to 40% chance that temperatures will be warmer than normal. The occasional winter storm still could bring snow, but it’s too early to say whether N.C. could get a white Christmas.

The non-profit scientific group Climate Central notes that from 1970 to 1922, winters have warmed an average of 3.8 degrees in 233 locations across the U.S. Cold snaps are shorter and the coldest winter days aren’t as cold, according to the group’s research.

We’ll take anything

The best chances of snow in December — or anytime this winter, Petro said — likely will come with storms that pop up relatively quickly because all the right ingredients came together at the same time. Especially if a couple of storms come in quick succession, bringing clouds that keep temperatures down, there is an increased chance that one will produce snow.

But those are especially difficult to predict until just before they arrive, Petro said.

Ski slopes in the N.C. mountains all should be open by Christmas, so even if there isn’t natural snowfall, it might be possible to rent a chalet near a slope or park yourself in a resort ski lodge and stare out the window at mechanically made fluff. GoSkiNC.com has regular snow reports on each ski destination in the state.