Could Oregon Republicans win more House, Senate seats in the 2022 midterm elections?

Oregon Republicans are eyeing more legislative seats in the Nov. 8 election.

Several factors could mean the GOP pick up a seat or two in the House and Senate in November, election watchers say.

It's a midterm election year, and the party that lost the White House two years prior can often pick up momentum in state legislative races, said Republican strategist Rebecca Tweed.

And legislative district boundaries have just been redrawn, leaving some voters with new-to-them incumbents.

Many incumbents have stepped down or aren't running again.

It's also the first time since 2010 that the governor's race is "open," or not occupied by an incumbent, since Gov. Kate Brown was appointed initially in Feb. 2015 after her predecessor, John Kitzhaber, resigned.

Tweed believes the three-way race to the governor's mansion will motivate voters to participate.

"To have three really powerhouse women running, it's engaging," Tweed said. "You want to vote in this election."

In the Oregon House, Democrats hold 37 of 60 seats; in the Senate, 18 out of 30 seats.

That means the Democrats have what’s known as a “supermajority" in each chamber where there are enough of them to pass bills that raise revenue without needing Republican support.

Dru Draper, political director of the House Republican Caucus, believes “the days are numbered” for the Democrats’ supermajority in that chamber.

Some watchers believe that Republicans could win enough Senate seats to split the chamber in half between Democrats and Republicans, or at least break the "supermajority," and perhaps pick up another seat or two in the House.

Jim Moore, associate professor and director of political outreach at the Tom McCall Center for Civic Engagement at Pacific University, says that six Senate seats are in play — two each that lean Democrat, lean Republican or are a toss-up between the two parties.

"Looks to me like it's going to end up being 16 to 14, but we'll see," Moore said, with Democrats still holding the majority.

Moore said Senate races to watch are in Senate District 3 in Southern Oregon, Senate District 20 around Oregon City, Senate District 26 in the Hood River area, as well as the race between Republican Kim Thatcher and Democrat Rich Walsh in Marion County, and the coastal district formerly held by Betsy Johnson.

Republicans also are setting their sights on Senate District 10, where Republican Raquel-Moore Green, who is in the Oregon House, is trying to beat Sen. Deb Patterson, D-Salem.

That district, which includes south and West Salem and spans southwest to Monmouth and Independence, has an estimated Democratic vote share of 56%, according to the Princeton Gerrymandering Project.

Another race to watch is between Democratic Sen. Janeen Sollman and Republican challenger Carolina Malmedal in Washington County, Tweed said.

Draper said his caucus is targeting more House districts this year — around seven to nine as opposed to two in 2020 — but declined to name them, saying it would become apparent as campaign spending ramps up in the next two months.

He described Salem as “ground zero” for Republicans seeking to pick up seats in this year’s election, pointing to Kevin Mannix’s run for House in the Salem-Keizer area and Tracy Cramer’s bid for the House in the Woodburn area.

Tweed pointed to House District 31 on the Oregon Coast, currently represented by Democrat Brad Witt, who is not running for reelection after losing a primary bid here in Salem, as another district that's in play, as well as House District 40 in Clackamas County, between Democrat Annessa Hartman and Republican Adam Baker.

Draper pointed to crime, homelessness, inflation and education as issues that voters will have in mind as they fill out their ballots.

“It’s just an issue set this year that I think is a lot different and plays in our favor than it has in the past,” Draper said.

But issues such as abortion and gun control also may motivate voters this November.

Tweed said in order to be successful, Republicans will need to be aware of the impact of the overturning of Roe v. Wade earlier this year and of discussions around gun control.

The election is still two months away and a lot can change in that time.

"I don't think we've seen that narrative hit the campaign cycle yet," Tweed said. "We've been talking about them for months, we're aware of how significant these issues are, but campaigns are emotional before they're logical. And I think that there will be a lot of national money and national pressure and the Democratic campaigns in the state are really going to hone in on those two issues and make it challenging for Republicans to overcome that."

Claire Withycombe covers state government for the Statesman Journal. You can reach her at 503-910-3821 or cwithycomeb@statesmanjournal.com

This article originally appeared on Salem Statesman Journal: Election 2022: Could the GOP flip some Oregon legislative districts?