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Could the Packers get eliminated from the playoff chase during the bye week? Plus other tiebreaker questions

jr radcliffe, milwaukee journal sentinel
·4 min read
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Aaron Rodgers went 25-5 against the Bears during his 15 years as starter of the Packers from 2008-22 and Jordan Love is looking to sweep Chicago in his first season as the starting quarterback. Head coach Matt LaFleur takes a 9-0 record against the Bears into Sunday's matchup.

The Packers won't be eliminated from the playoff chase during their bye week, but it's possible that Green Bay gets one step closer to being knocked out.

The Packers cannot catch Minnesota for the NFC North title and would need one of the three wild-card spots to get into the playoffs. The Dallas Cowboys (9-3) currently hold one of those spots, and with a win at home against the Texans on Sunday, the Cowboys would be guaranteed to finish ahead of Green Bay, leaving two possible spots for the Packers.

Teams ahead of Green Bay for a wild-card spot

  • Dallas (9-3, current No. 5 seed)

  • New York Giants (7-4-1, current No. 6 seed)

  • Seattle (7-5, current No. 7 seed)

  • Washington (7-5-1)

  • Detroit (5-7)

Division leaders: Philadelphia (11-1), San Francisco (8-4), Minnesota (10-2), Tampa Bay (6-6)

Dallas will clinch a better record this year with any win or any Packers loss, so it seems likely that the Packers would only be in contention for one of the last two spots, currently belonging to the Giants and Seattle.

The Packers (5-8) are tied with Atlanta, but presently own a tiebreaker on the Falcons.

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If the Giants or Seahawks win this week, it's almost a done deal

Seattle hosts Carolina and the New York Giants host Philadelphia this week.

If the Giants beat the Eagles, New York moves to 8-4-1, and the Packers can still catch New York on record alone, but it would require New York losing its final four games (with no ties, either) and Green Bay winning its final four. The Giants close the season against Washington, Minnesota, Indianapolis and the Eagles again, with only the Colts game at home.

If Seattle beats Carolina and moves to 8-5, the Packers can still bypass the Seahawks on record alone if Seattle loses out and the Packers win out.

If they tie (Packers win out, Seattle closes the year at 1-3), Green Bay in our scenario finishes the year 7-5 in NFC games (first tiebreaker). Seattle already has six wins with this week's win over Carolina, so Seattle would need its one win to come against the 49ers or Rams to activate the next tiebreaker: common opponents.

Seattle stands at 3-1 vs. teams on the Packers schedule with games still to play against the Jets and Rams. The Packers are 1-3 against common foes but have games remaining against the Lions and Rams. We're already assuming the Packers win out, so they'd be 3-3 in our scenario, but if that one Seattle win comes against the Rams, then the Seahawks get the edge on this tiebreaker.

If that win is against the 49ers instead, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory. Right now, the Packers have the better percentage, but the Seahawks would have the opportunity to upgrade with wins over the 49ers or Chiefs.

What about the Commanders and Lions?

Washington joins the Packers on bye this week and closes the year with the Giants, 49ers, Browns and Cowboys. As with the Giants, two wins or the package of one win and one tie guarantees the Commanders a better record than the Packers. The complication is that in the remaining faceoff with the Giants, one of those teams will get the outcome they desire.

In other words, the Packers need Seattle to incur the most damage in the home stretch of the season and hope one of the Commanders or Giants also goes ice cold to open up a path. Preferably for Green Bay, the team that loses the next Giants-Commanders game loses the rest of the way, too.

Even if Detroit beats Minnesota this week, the Packers can draw even with the Lions' record thanks to their head-to-head meeting still on the docket. In the scenario where both teams win out (with the exception of Detroit's loss to Green Bay), they finish deadlocked at 9-8 and have identical marks in the next three tiebreakers (division games, common opponents, NFC record). Next up is strength of victory. As it stands, Green Bay would have an edge in that department, but it's by the slimmest of margins.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Green Bay Packers slim playoff hopes remain. Here are the scenarios.