Could party-switchers make the difference in CD1 race? Here's a look at the numbers

PROVIDENCE – In a congressional race so crowded a candidate could win the Democratic Party's nomination with a tiny sliver of the vote, there's been a not-insignificant amount of party switching.

In the 60 days leading up to the Aug. 6 deadline for potential primary voters to switch their party affiliations, nearly 500 voters in Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District switched from Republican to "unaffiliated."

Perhaps harder to explain: 1,522 voters switched from Democrat to "unaffiliated" during the same 60-day stretch.

As "unaffiliated" (aka independent) voters, these party-switchers have the option of voting in either primary on Sept. 5, in a race where a dozen declared Democratic candidates and two Republicans are competing for their party's nod to run in November for the seat that U.S. Rep. David Cicilline resigned mid-term.

An ad campaign by the conservative, GOP-leaning R.I. Center for Freedom & Prosperity openly encouraged Republicans to disaffiliate so they could jump into the Democratic primary to potentially swing the vote away "from one of the radically-woke front-runners."

No one has offered up a theory yet on why so many Democrats disaffiliated when most of the action in this off-year contest is in their court.

What difference could an influx of Republicans make in the Democratic primary, or vice versa?

There have been no independent polls. In fact, the only polling numbers that have gone public were those circulated by Sabina Matos' campaign in early June, before the candidate lineup had firmed up, the debates had begun and controversies had sprouted around Matos, the state's current lieutenant governor, former Rep. Aaron Regunberg and others.

But no other candidate has chosen to make their internal polling numbers public, so Matos' numbers created an early perception that she and Regunberg were the front-runners among the Democrats competing, in all but a handful of cases, to be seen as the most "progressive."

Matos did not release a full survey, only select numbers showing her with 22% of the potential vote, Regunberg with 9% and 43% undecided. All of the others named in her poll were in the middle to low single-digits.

But early June was an eon ago in the evolution of this summer's off-year congressional race.

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How small a vote could win this race?

Asked Monday his sense of how small a vote could decide the crowded Democratic contest, veteran Rhode Island political analyst Joseph Fleming told The Journal "my guess would be someone could win it with 10,000 votes or less if no one breaks away from the group. Might be able to win it with 25% or less."

A year ago, 1,416 voters statewide went from being registered Republicans to "unaffiliated" in the same 60-day period leading up to the 2022 primary, according to Faith Chybowski, a spokeswoman for the secretary of state's office.

But there were many more races statewide in which to leave a mark, from Congress to governor to a legislative seat.

How many Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters in 1st Congressional District?

What do the most recent numbers show?

The 1st Congressional District, which runs from Social Street in Woonsocket to Sakonnet Point in Little Compton, currently includes 338,233 registered voters, including 15,461 Democrats (44%), 147,995 "unaffiliated" voters (44%) and 39,777 Republicans (12%).

Between June and August, the overall number of registered voters in the 1st Congressional District grew from 337,764 to 338,233. The subset of unaffiliated voters grew by 1,483, from 146,514 to 147,997, at the same time the overall number of registered Republicans and Democrats dropped.

Some were newly registered voters. But more than a third of the new independents – as many as 504 – were former Republicans in the 1st Congressional District who disaffiliated and became independents between June 7 and Aug. 6.

A breakdown provided by the secretary of state's election division showed 26 GOP-to-independent party-switchers in Barrington; 33 in Bristol; 5 in Central Falls; 45 in Cumberland; 41 in East Providence; 15 in Jamestown; 34 in Lincoln; 3 in Little Compton; 15 in Middletown; 34 in Lincoln; 18 in Newport; 30 in North Providence; 22 in North Smithfield; 37 in Pawtucket; 41 in Portsmouth; 51 in Providence; 25 in Smithfield; 20 in Tiverton; 13 in Warren; 30 in Woonsocket.

For reasons that are even harder to explain, 1,522 voters went from Democrat to unaffiliated in the same 60-day period, with the breakdown as follows: Barrington (52), Bristol (62), Central Falls (25), Cumberland (96), East Providence (138), Jamestown (26), Lincoln (70), Little Compton (7), Newport (59), North Providence (98), North Smithfield (33), Pawtucket (171), Portsmouth (41), Providence (382), Smithfield (59), Tiverton (35), Warren (50), Woonsocket (100).

(Of note: Providence – which is split between the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts – was the one community where elections staff were unable to readily extract numbers for the 1st Congressional District alone.)

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Voters switching parties in RI; will it influence CD1 primary election?