Who Could Replace Boris Johnson As U.K. Prime Minister?

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson leaves Number Ten of Downing Street on Wednesday, July 6, 2022. Credit - Stuart Brock—Getty Images

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Thursday that he will step down after a wave of resignations by at least 50 lawmakers and government officials over the past 48 hours.

The resignations followed the revelation that Johnson had known that a Conservative lawmaker, Chris Pincher, was being investigated for allegations of sexual misconduct in 2019 before he was appointed to a senior role responsible for party discipline. Pincher resigned last week after facing fresh accusations that he groped two men at a work event on June 29.

Read More: Boris Johnson Has Resigned. Here’s How He Lost His Government

Those events are the latest in a string of scandals surrounding the beleaguered British leader, after an official investigation uncovered a series of illegal parties at his Downing Street office that took place during nationwide COVID-19 lockdowns. Although Johnson survived a subsequent no-confidence vote on June 6, more than 40% of Conservative lawmakers declared they had lost confidence in his ability to govern the country.

Bookmakers are speculating over who could replace Johnson. Below, his likely successors, and what comes next:

Ben Wallace

According to the averages of various bookmakers’ predictions, defense secretary Ben Wallace is tipped as the favorite successor at 3/1. Wallace has experienced a recent surge in popularity thanks to his approach to the Russian war in Ukraine—a poll by right-wing blog Conservative Home found he was the favorite among party grassroots.

A former army captain, Wallace has mostly stayed out of the limelight as a junior minister for former leaders David Cameron and May. While he displayed his loyalty to Johnson by arriving alongside the leader at last month’s no-confidence vote, he has so far kept himself relatively free from scandal.

Rishi Sunak

Former finance minister Rishi Sunak is another favorite to take over the British premiership, with odds at 4/1. Sunak was one of the most senior cabinet ministers to step down on Tuesday. “The public rightly expect government to be conducted properly, competently, and seriously […] I believe these standards are worth fighting for and that is why I’m resigning,” he said in a resignation letter to Johnson.

Johnson plucked former hedge-fund manager Sunak from relative political obscurity when he appointed him as finance minister, known as chancellor of the exchequer in the U.K., in February 2020. His first full cabinet role was dominated by the fallout from the pandemic—the tens of billions of pounds of government support Sunak distributed to workers and businesses alike once made him the clear favorite to succeed Johnson.

Despite having to increase public spending in response to the global health crisis, Sunak is a low-tax, small-state conservative. Since being in the public eye, Sunak has cultivated a savvy social media presence and polished persona that sets him apart from older, traditional wings of the Conservative party. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, he supported the Leave campaign.

Sunak’s popularity has waned in recent months. The ex-finance minister was criticized for being slow to react to the cost-of-living crisis affecting Britons, and controversy over his millionaire wife’s non-domicile tax status has further alienated voters.

Dominic Raab

Deputy prime minister and justice secretary Dominic Raab has odds of 11/2 of succeeding Johnson. He temporarily assumed the role in 2020 when Johnson was in hospital with COVID-19.

Although Raab has remained loyal to Johnson during his premiership—publicly defending the decision to promote Pincher—his move from foreign secretary to justice secretary was seen as a demotion, after he failed to cut short a holiday when the Taliban took control of Kabul in August.

Some Tories are arguing for someone—likely Raab given his role as deputy prime minister—to take over as interim prime minister while Johnson’s replacement is chosen.

Read More: Here’s How a New U.K. Prime Minister Will Be Selected

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt, the most popular contender not to hold a cabinet position under Johnson, is another favorite to succeed him at 6/1. The former defense secretary is a staunch supporter of Brexit but has been vocal in her criticism of Johnson over the “partygate” scandal.

Currently an international trade minister, Mordaunt has spearheaded efforts to establish commerce deals with U.S. states, and is considered a strong speaker in parliament. She is currently the only female lawmaker who is in the Royal Navy reserves.

She is popular among Conservative loyalists—coming second in the recent Conservative Home poll of potential Tory leaders.

Sajid Javid

With odds of 8/1, former health secretary Sajid Javid has held several senior roles within cabinet and vied for party leadership in 2019. He previously held Sunak’s former position as Johnson’s finance minister, but resigned in 2020 after refusing to fire some of his most senior aides. He was also home secretary under former prime minister Theresa May. He was the first senior minister to step down on Tuesday, explaining that the problems in government “start at the top”.

Javid is a renowned Thatcherite—a portrait of the Iron Lady Margaret Thatcher reportedly hangs on his office wall—and a fan of American philosopher and writer Ayn Rand’s views around free market capitalism, individualism, and small-state government.

Javid returned to cabinet as health secretary in June 2021, shifting the government’s approach to COVID-19 away from mass restrictions and towards individual responsibility.

Jeremy Hunt

Former health and foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt lost out on the Conservative leadership to Johnson in 2019, and has since cast himself as the strait-laced antidote to the prime minister. Hunt aligns himself more closely with the center of the Conservative party, having campaigned in support of Remain in the Brexit referendum.

He has been a vocal critic of Johnson’s handling of the pandemic and the “partygate” scandal. Bookmakers put him on 11/1 odds.

Liz Truss

Foreign secretary Liz Truss has long been tipped as a potential future leader of the Conservative party, having won support among the party grassroots for her ardent Brexit support while a cabinet member and tongue-in-cheek social media presence. Bookmakers put her on 10/1 odds. In her current role, she has been a prominent figure in the U.K.’s response to the Russian war in Ukraine and coordinated post-Brexit talks with the European Union.

Although Truss was quick to display her loyalty to Johnson following Sunak and Javid’s resignations, she has for months been laying the groundwork for a future leadership contest, hosting “Fizz with Liz” drinks parties for Conservative lawmakers and inviting comparisons with Margaret Thatcher.

Despite her left-wing upbringing and foray into student politics as a centrist Liberal Democrat, Truss has since pivoted to champion small-state, conservative values.

Nadhim Zahawi

Relative political newcomer Nadhim Zahawi, who also has odds of 10/1, first gained popularity as vaccines minister, overseeing the U.K.’s successful rollout of COVID-19 shots. His loyalty to Johnson has paid off—Zahawi was promoted to education secretary in September and now, following Sunak’s resignation on Tuesday, to finance minister. He backed Brexit in 2016.

But just two days after being appointed to the new role, Zahawi joined calls for the leader to resign. “You must do the right thing and go now,” he said on Thursday.

Zahawi came to the U.K. as a child refugee from Iraq, fleeing Saddam Hussein’s regime. Although he has kept a relatively low profile in recent years, in 2013 he admitted to using taxpayers money for his heating bills at his stables, and in 2017 The Guardian revealed he had failed to declare his connection to two companies based in a tax haven.

Priti Patel

Home Secretary Priti Patel is a wildcard candidate to replace Johnson, with odds of 40/1. Patel has established a reputation for her hardline stance on immigration, having secured the roundly criticized deal to send refugees entering the U.K. to Rwanda.

The daughter of Indian migrants from Uganda, Patel famously admitted in 2020 that her own parents wouldn’t have been allowed into the U.K. if they had been subjected to her points-based immigration policy.

What happens next?

In a statement to the British public today, Johnson said that he would step down as leader of the Conservative party but would continue as prime minister until a replacement can be found. He said a timetable for the hotly-anticipated party leadership contest would be announced next week, although some MPs are calling for him to leave office immediately and have a caretaker prime minister brought in. Johnson’s resignation comes only a day after he pledged he would “keep going” in office.

“In the last few days I’ve tried to persuade my colleagues that it would be eccentric to change governments when we are delivering so much,” Johnson said. “I regret not to have been successful in those arguments.”

Labour party leader Keir Starmer said that while it was “good news for the country” that Johnson was stepping down, “it should have happened long ago.”

The race to the coveted leadership position is expected to heat up in the coming weeks. Johnson’s successor will be the fourth Conservative prime minister in 12 years—neither Johnson nor his predecessor May lasted a full five-year term in office.

The new Conservative leader may decide to call a general election after being appointed—both Johnson and May did the same after assuming office. However, in his statement to the public Johnson rejected the idea, saying it didn’t make sense when the Conservatives are “delivering so much and [with] such vast mandates, when the economic scene is so difficult domestically and internationally.”

Opposition leader Starmer backed the possibility of an election on Tuesday. “We need a fresh start for Britain. We need a change of government,” he said. But it’s unclear whether that could materialize, or what the outcome would be. Recent polls show Starmer with high unfavorability ratings, though a poll by BMG Research taken just before Sunak and Javid’s resignations put the Labour party with a 10-percentage point lead.

This story was updated on July 7 following Boris Johnson’s resignation announcement.