Could a Republican Senate candidate make it to the November election? New poll shows it’s possible

Republican Steve Garvey has moved into second place in a new U.S. Senate race poll — and if he can maintain that showing in the March 5 primary he’ll qualify for the November runoff.

The race for the California Senate seat currently held by Sen. Laphonza Butler after the death of Sen. Dianne Feinstein is shaping into a scramble for second place behind frontrunner Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank., according to a new poll from Politico and Morning Consult.

The survey of 858 likely California voters between Dec. 15 and Dec. 19 shows Schiff with 26% support, putting him firmly in the lead.

Moving into second place is former baseball player Garvey with 15% support, putting him just ahead of Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, who has 14%. Both were well within the poll’s 3% margin of error.

Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Oakland, was fourth with 12%. Another 19% were undecided. No other candidate got double-digit support.

California has a “jungle primary” system, whereby the two candidates with the most votes advance to the November general election, regardless of political party. This can lead to two members of the same party showing up on the same ballot.

This isn’t the only poll showing Garvey in second place — a SurveyUSA poll from earlier this month also shows him behind Schiff and slightly ahead of Porter and Lee.

Christian Grose, academic director of the USC Schwarzenegger Institute, said he was hesitant to call Schiff’s lead commanding.

“Even among these leading candidates, you’ve still got these people who are undecided,” he said.

Grose said that it will matter for Garvey, a Republican running in a deep blue state, whether those undecided voters lean more Democratic or more Republican. No Republican has been elected statewide since Arnold Schwarzenegger won the governorship in 2006.

With Garvey and Porter in a statistical tie, Grose said it’s still more likely that it will be Schiff and Porter who emerge from the March 2024 primary and move on to the November general election.

“I don’t think (Garvey has) a serious campaign. If he somehow squeaks through til November, he’ll get destroyed by Adam Schiff,” Grose said.

Other polls, including the most recent one from the Public Policy Institute of California, show Garvey still in third place behind Porter.

PPIC’s Mark Baldassare said that Garvey, who has not yet mounted a visible campaign in the state, is banking on name ID, particularly with Republican voters.

“There is not one candidate who has run for statewide office before, so name identification as well as resources matters a lot,” he said.

Baldassare said Garvey’s best chance at making the November runoff is to lock up most of the Republican-leaning voters in the state, who make up a bloc of about a quarter of the voting base.

“Therein lies the challenge for Steve Garvey,” Baldassare said.