Could Republicans and Democrats split Wisconsin's two big election contests for governor and US Senate?

In these partisan and polarized times, it would feel very strange for the two major parties to split Wisconsin’s big races for governor and U.S. Senate.

The norm in this state for more than two decades has been for one party to sweep the top election contests on the same ballot, whether it’s a good year for Democrats (2018, 2012) or a good one for Republicans (2016, 2010).

But in the last two polls by Marquette Law School, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers has led the race for governor and Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has led the race for U.S. Senate.

While some of those leads have been tiny, the polling suggests that a partisan split at the top of the ticket this year is a very real possibility.

In an era where voters have mostly abandoned ticket-splitting, it takes a special set of conditions for this to happen.

One is an evenly divided electorate, which Wisconsin has had for a long time. Split outcomes are more likely to happen in purple states than in red or blue ones.

Another is an election cycle where there are cross-cutting political forces, some favoring Republicans and some favoring Democrats. In other words — no “wave.”

That seems to describe 2022. Republicans have the advantage of being the out-party, running against a tumultuous economy and a president, Joe Biden, with negative job ratings. But this edge is at least partly offset by other factors. Democrats have mobilized against the Supreme Court’s unpopular abortion decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and against an unusually active and unpopular former president, Donald Trump.

If these conditions produce a set of close, competitive races, then even a small amount of ticket-splitting can lead to a split outcome.

A new Marquette poll released Wednesday illustrates how this could work. Johnson leads the Senate race by 6 points among likely voters and Evers leads the governor’s race by 1 point.

Only 3 percent of people who plan to vote Republican for Senate plan to vote Democratic for governor. And only 1 percent of the people who plan to vote Democratic for Senate plan to vote Republican for governor, according to this survey. That’s not a lot of ticket-splitting.

Yet the two races are close enough that a small amount of ticket-splitting can still produce different partisan outcomes.

I am not making a prediction here about who wins these two Wisconsin races. I’m just saying we shouldn’t be shocked if we get a split result — even though it has been a very long time since contests for major office in Wisconsin (president, Senate, governor) went to different parties in the same election.

Here is the recent history of Wisconsin elections with two major offices on the ballot:

• In 2018, Democrats won both races — for governor and U.S. Senate.

• In 2016, Republicans won both races — for president and U.S. Senate.

• In 2012, Democrats won both races — for president and U.S. Senate.

• In 2010, Republicans won both races — for governor and U.S. Senate.

• In 2006, Democrats won both races — for governor and U.S. Senate.

• In 2004, Democrats won both races — for president and U.S. Senate.

• In 2000, Democrats won both races — for president and U.S. Senate.

In some of these cases, there was so little ticket-splitting that the outcomes of the two contests were almost identical. The GOP wave of 2010 is a great example. Republicans won the race for governor (Scott Walker) by 5.8 points and the race for Senate (Ron Johnson) by 4.8 points. The voting patterns were uncannily similar down to the ward level.

In other cases, there were significant differences in the winning margin, but the same party still won both contests.

That happened in 2018, when Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin won her Senate race by 11 points over Republican Leah Vukmir and Democrat Evers won the governor’s race by just 1 point over Walker, the GOP incumbent. About 10% of the people who voted for Walker also voted for Baldwin, according to exit polls.

Nearly a quarter century since last split

You have to go back 24 years in Wisconsin, to 1998, to find a split result at the top of the ticket. That’s when Republican Tommy Thompson won his fourth term for governor by 21 points and Democrat Russ Feingold won his second term for Senate by 2 points. According to the exit polls, almost one in four Wisconsin voters split their tickets for the two top offices.

Over the course of the next two decades, however, ticket splitting plunged as voting patterns became more party-line and elections became more nationalized. In 2010 in Wisconsin, only one in 14 voters split their tickets for governor and senator, according to exit polls.

In recent U.S. elections, states have overwhelmingly voted the same way for Senate as they do for president or governor.

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This year, however, polls suggest we could get a split outcome for governor and U.S. Senate in several states, including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia.

I am not sure this points to voters becoming less partisan. Other factors are in play. One is the quality of the candidates. In some states, the GOP in the Trump Era has nominated very flawed candidates that in the polls are underperforming other Republicans on the same ballot (such as Senate candidate Herschel Walker in Georgia). In some states, the Democratic candidate for governor has proved to be more effective than the Democratic candidate for Senate, or vice versa.

Another factor is that this election cycle is turning out to be more competitive than you would expect in a mid-term with a president suffering from poor job ratings. Biden is at 43% approval in Wisconsin in the latest Marquette poll.

Historically this would sink the party in power and lead to a sizable turnout gap between voters in the president’s party and voters in the “out” party.  But polls right now aren’t picking up a huge difference in motivation between Democratic and Republican voters, partly because the Supreme Court’s abortion decision served to mobilize Democrats.

The result of all this is that the polling and political history are telling two different stories.

Based on history alone, Republicans should be in the driver’s seat in both big Wisconsin races. The president's party has lost the last seven races for governor in Wisconsin, dating back to 1994. A Democratic win by Evers over Michels would buck this trend. And the president’s party hasn’t defeated a senator in the “out-party” since 1962. A Democratic win by Barnes over Johnson would buck this trend.

A Republican sweep of these two races in Wisconsin is still quite possible.

But a competitive election cycle in a 50/50 state creates all sorts of possibilities, including one (a split outcome) we haven’t seen here in decades.

Craig Gilbert provides Wisconsin political analysis as a fellow with Marquette University Law School's Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education. Prior to the fellowship, Gilbert reported on politics for 35 years at the Journal Sentinel, the last 25 in its Washington Bureau. His column continues that independent reporting tradition and goes through the established Journal Sentinel editing process.

Follow him on Twitter: @Wisvoter.

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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Democrats, Republicans could split top races in Wisconsin election