Could Russell Wilson be the next Panthers QB? Here’s a trade market cheat sheet

Playoff football can change everything.

That’s how some in the NFL feel about a veteran quarterback market that keeps flirting with the idea of an offseason of musical chairs, just as it did last year.

Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers lost Saturday at Lambeau Field to Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers. Green Bay was the No. 1 seed with Super Bowl aspirations, and yet for a third straight season the Packers failed to reach the Big Game.

Where will Rodgers play next season? What about Garoppolo? His postseason story isn’t over yet, but the 49ers have plenty of reasons to move on from him even if they win the Super Bowl. More on that later.

Other top quarterbacks could be on the move too. Russell Wilson made it public he’d accept a trade last offseason. He’s likely available again. Then there is Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins and, of course, the embattled Deshaun Watson.

The Panthers need a quarterback. There is little doubt Carolina will bring in some level of competition for Sam Darnold, giving new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo more options.

If the Panthers decide to trade for a veteran, here are several they could consider. We’ll break them down into tiers, and explore the likelihood each quarterback switches teams, what it would cost to acquire them, and ultimately if it’s worth it.

Let the musical chairs begin.

Tier 1 studs

Russell Wilson | Seahawks

Seahawks’ savings if traded: $11 million

2021 QBR ranking: 12th (54.4)

Wilson seems destined for a second act outside of Seattle. His no-trade clause allows him to pick exactly where that will be if the Seahawks decide to trade him.

Despite suffering mallet-finger tendon damage, a dislocation, and two fractures in his right middle finger, Wilson put together an on-brand season and is still considered an elite quarterback.

He’d command multiple first-round picks (a theme among all these Tier 1 options), especially because Seattle should be desperate to recoup the picks it dealt to acquire safety Jamal Adams from the Jets. New York holds picks No. 4 and No. 10, the latter coming via Seattle.

Carolina has the ammunition for Wilson. It should help that Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer played a major role in selecting Wilson in the 2012 draft and spent nearly eight years with him in Seattle before coming to Carolina.

But would Wilson wave his no-trade clause to come to Charlotte? That remains unknown. Also, any team that trades for him will likely have to restructure his current contract, which has two years remaining. Wilson is used to being one of (if not the highest) paid quarterback in football. He’ll probably push for his current APY (average per year) of $35 million toward $40 million, joining Dak Prescott, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

It’s a lot to consider.

Aaron Rodgers | Packers

Packers’ savings if traded: $19.3 million

2021 QBR ranking: 1st (68.9)

Rodgers’ beautiful mystery continues. Following the Packers’ 13-10 loss to the 49ers, Rodgers said he is going to take some time away to contemplate his future, but will let Green Bay know his plans before free agency.

Which means by March, the league should know if Rodgers is available. He’ll cost several first-round picks as well.

It’s difficult forecasting a better situation for Rodgers other than Green Bay. He’s expected to win his second-consecutive MVP and fourth total after another dominant season. If Rodgers wasn’t a Packer, people across the league would be pitching he sign in Green Bay.

But sometimes its more about a change of scenery than being in the best situation. Regardless, there is too much unknown circling Rodgers for him to be considered a realistic option.

If he’s made available, then Carolina would do its due diligence and make calls.

Deshaun Watson | Texans

Texans’ savings if traded: $24.2 million

2021 QBR ranking: N/A

There is not much to say here that hasn’t already been written, podcasted about or discussed ad nauseam.

If Watson’s legal troubles are resolved, then Carolina will be a major player for him. He’ll cost multiple first round picks — which would likely include the Panthers’ No. 6 selection in the upcoming draft — plus future picks.

Considering the Panthers are working with less fire power than teams like the Eagles or Dolphins, Carolina would have to be comfortable parting with a few first-rounders, and probably a young asset from its defense.

Watson also would have to waive his no-trade clause and have his very serious legal situation resolved. There is a lot of unknown and little certainty he’s worth mortgaging an already cloudy future.

Tier 2 upgrades

Derek Carr | Raiders

Raiders’ savings if traded: $19.9 million

2021 QBR ranking: 14th (52.5)

Carr is entering the final year of a five-year, $125 million contract he signed in 2017. Back in October, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Carr and the Raiders would not work on an extension until the season concluded.

Of course, that was before all the in-season drama the Raiders endured. Now Las Vegas is searching for a new GM and head coach. It’s also been reported that his future in Vegas will be tied to who the next coach is.

If Carr or the Raiders decide its time to move on, it’s believed he could be acquired for less than a first-round pick. Precedent suggestions he would command more than what the Colts paid for Carson Wentz (a conditional first-round pick and a third-rounder).

But Carr has battled a “we’re not 100% happy he’s our guy” stigma since he entered the league eight years ago. However, he’d be an upgrade in Carolina, and that’s all the Panthers can ask for.

Plus, the Panthers have better offensive weapons than Carr has with Vegas. The problem is Carolina does not have a single Day 2 pick in the upcoming draft to offer. Recouping some mid-round selections and then deal for Carr makes sense.

Signing him to an extension is what could become tricky.

Kirk Cousins | Vikings

Vikings’ savings if traded: $35 million

2021 QBR ranking: 15th (52.1)

The Vikings’ bill on Cousins is finally coming due. The past few seasons they’ve extended the quarterback to soften his cap hit and theoretically maximize their Super Bowl window.

Instead, Minnesota missed the playoffs for consecutive seasons and fired both GM Rick Spielman and coach Mike Zimmer. Once the Vikings hire a new regime, Cousins’ future will become more clear, but his $45 million cap hit this season is unlikely to change.

If the Vikings trade Cousins, they’ll probably have to pay a portion of his 2022 salary. The more they pay, the more attractive he’d become to potential suitors.

He’s a clear upgrade over Darnold. But even with a loaded roster in Minnesota, Cousins never pushed the Vikings over the top. He’ll need a contract extension, as well.

Cousins needs adequate protection to produce. Carolina cannot provide that yet. Until they do, adding Cousins doesn’t move the needle enough.

Tier 3 question marks

Jimmy Garoppolo | 49ers

49ers’ savings if cut or traded: $25.6 million

2021 QBR ranking: 13th (52.9)

Garoppolo’s value around the league seems tied to his postseason production. The 49ers are 2-0 and a win away from their second Super Bowl in three years, but are winning without quality quarterback play.

Garoppolo hasn’t thrown a postseason touchdown or eclipsed 200 passing yards. His two interceptions are most among playoff quarterbacks still alive. He has been inconsistent all season. Some around the league wonder if he’s capable of producing outside Kyle Shanahan’s system.

He’s due more than $25 million in 2022 but none is guaranteed. It’s a bad contract. Considering the 49ers traded future picks for rookie QB Trey Lance last offseason, holding on to Garoppolo doesn’t make sense.

Darnold continues to play poorly but Garoppolo should be considered a lateral move, if not a downgrade.

Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins

Dolphins’ savings if traded: (-$1.5 million)

2021 QBR ranking: 18th (50.0)

A Tua Tagovailoa trade would signal the Texans are trading Watson to Miami, thus making him available. If Houston isn’t interested in him, then he becomes an interesting young option.

However, don’t expect Carolina to be that interested. Tagovailoa still has a lot to prove in the league. Can he overcome his smaller stature and consistently stay healthy? There is too much unknown around his potential to invest more than a second-round pick, if that.

The Dolphins tailored their offense around Tagovailoa’s strengths. He needs a heavy RPO scheme predicated around quick, short throws. When schemed well, Tagovailoa can carve apart a defense, as Carolina experienced in Week 12. He completed 87% of his passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-10 win over the Panthers.

But when the Dolphins needed a critical Week 17 win at Tennessee, Tagovailoa went 18 for 38 and threw a pick. Miami lost 34-3.

Losses like that linger and don’t instill confidence in a front office to trade for him.

Gardner Minshew | Eagles

Eagles’ savings if cut or traded: $965,000

Acquiring Gardner Minshew shouldn’t cost nearly what all the other quarterbacks on this list do. However, the Eagles notoriously run a tough bargain and no team wants to be the one that overpays for a QB some consider a “poor man’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.”

He should be available for a later-round pick. And he deserves interest as a guy who could bring energy and excitement to a quarterback room. There isn’t much belief in his 17-game, full-time starter capabilities but he would provide affordable value to Carolina.

What we learned

There are other veterans who could be available this offseason who are worth mentioning. Jamies Winston (Saints), Nick Foles (Bears) and Matt Ryan (Falcons) all carry unknown futures.

Carolina will have options to improve its quarterback room via trade. Finding an ideal fit — at an affordable price — is where the front office gamesmanship comes in.

The Panthers better make sure the music doesn’t stop without a preferable quarterback sitting in their QB 1 chair.