Could Sam Stone beat the odds and win a Phoenix City Council seat?

Corrections & Clarifications: An earlier version of this column gave an incorrect first name for U.S. Rep. Greg Stanton.

Runoff or special elections in Phoenix generally favor establishment candidates and issues.

Voter turnout drops off precipitously, which means money, name recognition and special interests play a more outsize role than usual.

Could the March 14 runoff in Phoenix City Council District 6 prove an exception to the rule?

The race is between moderate Kevin Robinson, a retired Phoenix assistant police chief who teaches at ASU, and conservative Sam Stone, the former chief of staff to term-limited Councilman Sal DiCiccio.

Notably, it pits a political newbie fronted by powerful Democratic interests – Robinson is backed by Mayor Kate Gallego and several former mayors; his campaign chair is Rep. Greg Stanton – against a policy wonk fresh off a stint as policy adviser to failed Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.

Robinson is well funded, but is he the favorite?

Robinson raised an eye-popping $530,000 leading up to the Nov. 8 election, Stone about a fifth of that. Robinson spent a bulk of it on multiple campaign fliers and door-to-door efforts; Stone relied mostly on text messages and Facebook ads.

The eight-candidate field scattered the votes, with no one getting more than 50% to win outright. (The top four each finished with more than 10,000 votes; Robinson finished first, shy of 12,100.)

Robinson still commands about a 5-to-1 money advantage over Stone for the runoff. But it’d be a stretch to say he’s the prohibitive favorite.

Finance:Council races raise over $1M, more than half to one candidate

Robinson survived a challenge last summer over whether he in fact lived outside the district at his wife’s home in Scottsdale.

The candidate who filed the challenge, conservative Moses Sanchez, finished third. And fourth-place finisher Joan Greene, who also questioned Robinson’s residency, is backing Stone because he would provide the checks and balances on the council.

"He will bring another perspective to solving the pressing problems that have increased over the years, and he has experience within the community as Sal Diciccio's chief of staff," Greene noted in an email.

While there’ll be a sizable dropoff in ballots – district turnout in November was 74%, even though those who actually voted for a candidate was more like 50% – District 6 voters turn out at the highest percentage among the eight districts.

They’ve shown historically that they’re more vested than their counterparts across the city.

Will Stone's ties to Kari Lake hurt him?

Stone unquestionably benefits from having served more than five years as DiCiccio's right-hand person. DiCiccio and Stone often have been a thorn to the side to the City Council and staff, notably in futile efforts to halt the expansion of light rail and to force dramatic reforms on the funding of city pensions.

They regularly criticize spending proposals, including water and trash rate increases, and staunchly defend police against community activists.

Stone has a leg up on Robinson regarding issues in the many neighborhoods that span the district – Ahwatukee, Arcadia, Sunnyslope and north central Phoenix – which include a growing homeless problem spilling beyond the central city.

Robinson brings a wealth of insight from his three-plus decades with Phoenix Police but otherwise is running on a broad platform that includes water sustainability, affordable housing and to start up one of Mayor Gallego’s key projects, an ethics commission overseeing the City Council.

Stone’s biggest obstacle may well be changing demographics. The electorate in the district has become more Democratic since DiCiccio was first elected. He won his 2017 reelection by 4 percentage points, a fraction of his winning margin four years earlier, against a newcomer despite greater name recognition and a much larger campaign coffer.

And while Stone severed ties with Lake following the November election – he says Americans hate sore losers who won’t stop contesting the past instead of looking forward – the association could hurt him in the runoff more than it helps.

The race is no less a test of Gallego’s reach in her efforts to galvanize a more solid voting bloc. (The other runoff election on March 14 in south-central District 8 is the other litmus test. Gallego is backing challenger Kesha Hodge Washington, a Phoenix attorney, against the incumbent, grassroots organizer and activist Carlos Garcia.)

A win by Stone (or Garcia) would go a long way in challenging that assumption.

Reach Abe Kwok at akwok@azcentral.com. On Twitter: @abekwok.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Will Sam Stone beat the odds and win a Phoenix City Council seat?