Could the shooting outside Lee Zeldin's home become a campaign issue?
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Rep. Lee Zeldin has been reminding voters throughout his campaign for governor that crime is at their doorstep. And then it came to his.
Zeldin was headed home from a Columbus Day parade in the Bronx Sunday when word came that his 16-year-old daughters had locked themselves in an upstairs bathroom after hearing gunshots outside their Long Island home.
A home security camera captured two men shot and lying near his porch while a third was walking away. A bullet was found some 30 feet from the kitchen table where the teenagers were doing homework.
“I’m standing in front of crime scene tape in front of my own house,” Zeldin told reporters hours later while his wife and daughters stood nearby. “You can’t get me more outraged than right now.”
Outrage has been the centerpiece of the Republican congressman’s bid to unseat Democrat Kathy Hochul in the Nov. 8 election.
In July, after he was confronted onstage at an upstate rally by an Iraqi war veteran holding a pointed self-defense device, Zeldin railed against state bail laws that set his alleged attacker free hours later.
One of Zeldin’s “Take Back Our Streets” TV ads includes a montage of shootings, smash-and-grabs, and beatdowns that end with the tagline, “Lee Zeldin for Governor. Because it’s time our families feel safe again.” As the video ends, a masked thief appears on the porch of a home in what appears to be a home surveillance video.
Sunday’s shooting, which dovetailed neatly into a narrative Zeldin has tapped into time and again, offers Zeldin another chance to make the case that New Yorkers are not safe in a state run by Hochul. But will it make a difference in a race pollsters say now appears to be Hochul’s to lose?
SUNY Cortland emeritus professor Robert Spitzer doesn’t think so. Spitzer has written six books on guns and public policy, including the latest, “The Gun Dilemma.”
“Obviously, this incident does highlight Zeldin’s campaigning on the problem of crime,” Spitzer said. “But from the accounts, the incident was not directed at him or his family, but on the three people who just happened to be passing by who were attacked.”
'Extraordinary irony'
Veteran Republican strategist Bill O’Reilly said he could think of no similar incident in a modern political campaign. But he said it gives Zeldin an opportunity to highlight the tough-on-crime measures he’s been talking about throughout the campaign.
"Congressman Zeldin has been laser-focused on street crime for more than a year, and now it's literally landed on his front porch,” O’Reilly said. “It's an extraordinary irony, and one that will likely factor into the final weeks of this gubernatorial campaign."
Suffolk County police say they don’t believe the shooting was linked to Zeldin or other families on the block in Shirley.
Police say three teenagers were walking along St. George Drive West around 2:20 p.m. when they were shot at by a passenger in a dark-colored vehicle. Two 17-year-olds – one from Mastic, the other from Mastic Beach – hid in the yard. A third ran away.
Their injuries were not life-threatening and police are still looking for whoever carried out the shooting.
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Zeldin faces obstacles
Over the past decade Long Island has been dealing with an uptick in violence linked to the international street gang known as MS-13. Gun-related violent crimes were up nearly 17% in Suffolk County last year, from 269 in 2020 to 313 in 2021, but down significantly from a high of 443 in 2015, according to state Division of Criminal Justice statistics.
In a statement issued Sunday, Zeldin praised his daughters for acting "swiftly and smartly."
"Like so many New Yorkers, crime has literally made its way to our front door," he added.
Hochul said she was "relieved to hear the Zeldin family is safe and grateful for law enforcement's quick response."
Spitzer said he doubts the incident will make much of a difference in the waning weeks of the campaign.
”Politically, I’d make two predictions,” he said. “This story will rapidly fade, and it will have no effect on the 20-plus points Zeldin trails Hochul by in the final weeks of the campaign. Any sane candidate in his position would indeed use it to advance the candidate’s agenda, but Zeldin has many obstacles to overcome to change the current dynamics in the gubernatorial race.”
Utica University political science professor Luke Perry says the shooting could allow Zeldin to show voters he’s been personally impacted by the crime and public safety issues he’s made the centerpiece of his campaign.
“Having his daughters at home during a drive-by shooting adds a unique and compelling personal dimension to Zeldin's advocacy for public safety, enabling him to speak directly about his own experiences rather than exclusively speaking on behalf of others,” Perry said.
But, Perry noted, the approach might work best among supporters, “particularly white, male, suburban conservatives, like himself.”
“The incident will likely translate less with New Yorkers who live in less affluent areas than Suffolk County where the dynamics of crime, race, and policing differ,” Perry said.
Perry is the author of “Donald Trump and the Midterm Battle for Central New York,” published in 2019.
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This article originally appeared on New York State Team: Shooting near Lee Zeldin's NY home fuels crime message on Hochul
