Could Springfield see a white Christmas? Farmers' Almanac predicts stormy, glacial Midwest winter

In the midst of southwest Missouri's summer drought, the 2023 edition of The Farmers' Almanac predicts a "stormy and cold" winter for Missouri and much of the Midwest.

"The first bite of winter should come earlier than last year’s. December 2022 looks stormy and cold nationwide with an active storm pattern developing and hanging around for most of the season over the eastern half of the country," reads a press release announcing the 2023 Almanac edition.

The Farmers' Almanac, not to be confused with The Old Farmer's Almanac, has been published annually since 1818 and its predictions are developed with weather patterns and meteorology in mind, according to the publisher.

In the latest edition, the Almanac predicts heavy snow in Midwestern states like Missouri, including the possibility of snow during the Christmas holiday.

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"Snow lovers will be happy in the (Midwest) as they will see a fair share of storminess during the winter season, which should mean plenty of snow for winter enthusiasts to enjoy (maybe even in time for a White Christmas?)" reads the press release.

The Almanac suggests the group of states may have snow "in time for a white Christmas" even in areas where such a holiday treat is unlikely.

They predict the heaviest snow will march across the inner United States the first week of January 2023, with a "good potential for heavy snow" as far south as Oklahoma and Texas and followed by a sweep of bitterly cold air.

"The big takeaway for our winter season forecast is that frigid temperatures should flow into many areas nationwide—especially in the North Central region, where readers will certainly be shaking and shivering!"

But local meteorologists at the National Weather Service urged skepticism for The Farmers Almanac and similar publications.

"The Farmers' Almanac really doesn't take into account anything dynamically going on. So it's really kind of looking at past events to try and predict the future," said meteorologist Gene Hatch.

"I would use it as one piece of information. But the more information you can get, the better. Not saying that it's not accurate because ... a lot of times they're pretty close. But I don't know if I would use that as my single source."

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But The Farmers' Almanac is sworn to by its many adherents and they claim an 80 percent prediction track record.

"Neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy," according to the Almanac's website — qualifying that "our results are often very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent."

It's too far out to accurately predict what this winter's weather will look like, Hatch said, but Springfield has an average of 13.7 inches of snowfall each year. According to NWS data, that means the city has an 11 percent chance of a white Christmas each year.

Also, the one-time downpour Springfield saw last week is not enough to get the grass green again, he said.

"We'd really need to have some good soaking rainfalls. Not just like spotty showers, kind of like what we had the other day in Springfield."

Andrew Sullender is the local government reporter for the Springfield News-Leader. Follow him on Twitter @andrewsullender. Email tips and story ideas to asullender@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Springfield News-Leader: Farmers Almanac predicts stormy, very cold winter in Midwest