Could the Texans’ Davis Mills be the next Josh Rosen?

In 2018, the Arizona Cardinals took Josh Rosen with the 10th overall pick. Coming from UCLA, Rosen was considered a consensus top-10 selection and a rock star pick for the Cardinals. In his rookie campaign, he would start 13 games and throw for 2,278 yards, 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

Despite the troves of articles written on how poor Sam Darnold’s landing spot was with the New York Jets, taken seven spots ahead of Rosen, the talent level of that Arizona team in 2018 has been largely forgotten. That team was atrocious. The Cardinals finished 3-13 and Rosen was only 3-10 after taking over as the starter in Week 4.

In less than one calendar year, the floor was pulled out from underneath the previous 10th overall selection. Arizona earned the right for the No. 1 overall pick in 2019, and hired a new head coach from the college ranks, Kliff Kingsbury from Texas Tech. Rosen certainly hadn’t lit the world on fire during his rookie campaign, but the deck was stacked against him.

It’s hard for a new regime to pass on the No. 1 quarterback on their board in favor of the fourth-best quarterback from the draft prior. Kyler Murray was selected first overall and Rosen was shipped to the Miami Dolphins for a second-round pick.

The story acts as a cautionary tale for bad teams that are looking to develop a quarterback. You may very well end up in a better situation the following offseason to upgrade the position. The short-term vision ignores the long-term likelihood.

Today, that is very potentially where the Houston Texans sit. They have their own Pac-12 quarterback from California, recently selected Davis Mills from Stanford.

Houston is projected at o/u 4.5 wins according to most sportsbooks, one of the lowest totals in the league. It would be a surprise to no one if, between the talent deficient roster and first-time head coach David Culley, Houston lands a top-3 selection after having no picks within the top-60 this past draft.

It’s certainly possible Mills will outperform rookie season Rosen; that bar isn’t very high. However, unless the Stanford product plays completely lights out, it will be very difficult for Houston to say no to an elite, polished prospect at the top of the first round.

The most optimistic of Texans fans would love for Mills to blow the team away and inspire confidence as the Texans move on from Deshaun Watson. General manager Nick Caserio would look like a genius if he managed to solve the team’s most important position in the third round of his first draft.

The odds are certainly stacked against it though. Mills will need good luck, great play, and an over-performing 2021 Texans team to avoid a possibly similar fate to Rosen.