Could Ukrainian forces cut off Russian supply lines in the south?
Following a suspected strike on a bridge at Chongar, between Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea, NV talked to an expert to mull over the implications of the attack.
Melnyk explained how the interruption of communication between Crimea and the mainland will affect the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and suggested why Russian Telegram channels claim that the strike was carried out by British Storm Shadow missiles.
Read also: Chonhar bridge attacks will impede Russian logistics – expert opinion
NV: This morning, "bavovna" (Ukrainian pun on Russian euphemism for explosions -ed.) occurred in Chonhar, on the border of occupied Crimea and Kherson Oblast. Not on one bridge, but on two at once. Can you explain what happened there? Why does it matter?
O.M.: Indeed, there is very detailed video evidence of the damage from this strike. Both bridges were damaged. One seems to have been unused, but in any case, it could theoretically be employed as a backup.
Even if we believe the optimistic statements from the so-called occupation leader, gauleiter Vladimir Saldo, that they will be able to restore it, it will take hours, even if we are talking about temporary measures. But for today's main task, the counter-offensive, even a few hours' interruption to the supply chain is extremely important.
Read also: Russian invaders start panicking after strike on bridge to Crimea, says official
NV: How significant could the consequences be?
O.M.: Even before this, the issues with the land corridor were quite serious. You can see online a live stream of truck drivers being redirected to avoid the Crimean bridge. Even without the destruction of the bridge at Chonhar, this trip took several days, possibly even weeks of waiting at checkpoints with various roadblocks.
Today, to put it roughly, these problems will be at least 50% worse. If we hope that the remaining connection points between the Crimean Peninsula and the mainland will be damaged in the coming days, then at the very least the possibility of reinforcing the group of Russian troops currently stationed in southern Ukraine from Crimea will be cut off. And there are serious logistical issues for the peninsula itself.
Read also: Russian invaders claim bridge between occupied Crimea and Kherson was attacked
NV: The occupiers claim these bridges were hit by Storm Shadow missiles. Some opinions say that after such strikes nothing would remain of the bridges, as opposed to just holes in them. Do we understand what they're claiming and why the occupiers would make such statements?
O.M.: It's difficult for me to judge technically — specialized experts should assess what ammunition hit the bridge. Based on the range, it could hardly have been HIMARS. It could have been Storm Shadow or another missile... The result is most important. But immediately calling it Storm Shadow may relate to recent statements by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who literally announced such strikes.
Accordingly, strikes in retaliation may aim to pressure Shoigu. Because in the Russian information space, every other comment targets Shoigu: "What about your threats?" Apparently, Russia identified the missile as Storm Shadow to encourage Shoigu or Russian political/military leadership to take another serious escalation.
NV: Russian propagandist (Vladimir) Solovyov is already calling on Shoigu to answer for his words and strike the "decision-making centers" behind this bridge attack. Is there really a connection? Shoigu makes a statement and the next day there's an (attack). Was it a response to his statements, or did Shoigu know about it?
O.M.: I don't think there is a connection in either direction. Why would Ukraine strike in response to Shoigu's statements? Probably, this is the task of Western politicians, who have to respond immediately and convincingly to certain statements of the Russian leadership. To say the attack aimed to undermine Shoigu's authority in front of his superiors, I don't think such a connection exists.
Read also:
Some 1,500 houses flooded in Kherson Oblast, bridges destroyed in Mykolayiv Oblast
Russia sending first responders to northern Crime for training
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