It could be weeks before we learn Medina Spirit’s Kentucky Derby fate. Here’s why.

Following the bombshell dropped by Bob Baffert that his Kentucky Derby-winning horse Medina Spirit had been flagged for a medication violation, racing has been waiting to find out what the re-testing would show.

Well, Baffert and everyone else may have to wait weeks more.

Testing the “split sample” taken from a horse that is flagged for a positive routinely takes three to four weeks.

How is that possible in the Horse Racing Capital of the World, when officials in Maryland were able to say Medina Spirit tested clean at least three times before the Preakness last Saturday?

Short answer: Different kind of testing.

Dr. Mary Scollay, the executive director and chief operating officer of the Racing Medication & Testing Consortium, headquartered in Lexington, explained the difference. Scollay was the equine medical director for the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission from 2008 to 2019, when she joined the RMTC.

Testing done ahead of the Preakness was screening, which takes far less time than the confirmatory analysis testing that will be done on the split sample taken after the Kentucky Derby, she said.

“That kind of quantitative, rigorous testing can take weeks,” Scollay said.

In fact, according to Craig Robertson, the attorney who is representing Baffert, that testing has not yet begun.

“Given its importance, everyone wants to make sure this is handled properly. I expect it to be shipped this week,” Robertson said Monday, 16 days after the Kentucky Derby was run. “We don’t have a firm commitment on a time frame, but I anticipate it taking at least a couple of weeks.”

Testing timeline

▪ When Kentucky stewards get a report that a potential prohibited substance has been found in the blood of a racehorse, they have three days to notify the trainer, who can request the split sample be analyzed.

▪ Once the request is made, the state’s equine medical director, currently Dr. Bruce Howard, puts out the call to RMTC-accredited labs: “We found betamethasone in blood at this amount and here’s how old it is. Who is willing and able to test?”

▪ The split is never sent to the same lab as the original testing lab and it can take up to five days to get replies. The trainer selects from the list of potential testing labs, sometimes in consultation with an attorney and other experts who may advise on which lab to use.

▪ The refrigerated sample can be sent overnight to a lab anywhere in the U.S., or even overseas if necessary.

▪ But first shipping has to be organized: The trainer or a representative, often the lawyer, is legally allowed to observe when it is packed. Robertson said he and a representative from Baffert’s barn plan to be in attendance.

▪ Samples are only shipped on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, Scollay said, just in case something happens and it takes two days. “That can add almost a week to the process, even though it hasn’t left commission control yet,” she said.

▪ Once the sample gets to the lab, the timing could depend on the existing workload, Scollay said. Normally, split samples would get in line. “I would say in this particular case, everyone in the testing community is well aware of the implications, so the whole queue could get bypassed to run it in as timely a fashion as possible,” Scollay said.

▪ Testing will probably take up to a week, she said. Even though they will be testing for a known therapeutic substance in this case, rather than something obscure, they will have to follow a strict guideline on how that testing is conducted.

Racing commission ruling

The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission’s role won’t begin until the results of the split sample’s test is completed.

“If the split does not confirm the findings, the case is over, there is no complaint filed,” Scollay said.

If the finding is confirmed, “the rule is very clear that it calls for disqualification,” Scollay said.

As for Baffert’s assertion that Medina Spirit was treated with a prescribed ointment for a skin condition, it doesn’t matter how the betamethasone got into the horse, she said.

“A violation mandates a disqualification and I don’t believe that the stewards or the commission has the authority to negate that.”

And what about the pre-race drug testing that Medina Spirit and the other Derby horses went through? Why didn’t that turn up the medication and possibly prevent this from happening?

Because Kentucky racing regulators didn’t look for it.

The state tests for substances like anabolic steroids, growth hormones, EPO, snake venom and other toxins but not permitted therapeutic medications.

Under “a gentleman’s agreement” reached with Kentucky trainers, who were leery that regulators would use out-of-competition testing to gather intelligence, the state agreed in 2009 not to, Scollay said. “Kentucky has honored its agreement not to over-reach.”

It is unclear if the samples taken before the Derby will be re-tested; it will be up to Baffert to request that.

NYRA suspends Baffert

On Monday, the New York Racing Association temporarily suspended Baffert from entering any horses or even occupying stall space at three New York tracks until the results of the split-sample test come back.

“In order to maintain a successful Thoroughbred racing industry in New York, NYRA must protect the integrity of the sport for our fans, the betting public and racing participants,” said NYRA President and CEO Dave O’Rourke. “That responsibility demands the action taken today in the best interests of Thoroughbred racing.”

Will the results come in time for the Belmont Stakes on June 5? It will be a race to the finish.

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