Countdown to Election '24 | Between now and Nov. 5, I wouldn't be surprised to see ...

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With the race for 2024 now officially underway, we asked a supersized panel of as-seen-on-TV political insiders to finish this sentence:

GEORGE WILL, Champaign native and Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist

"Between now and November 5th, this columnist wouldn't be surprised to see, concerning the president, what is delicately referred to as 'an actuarial event' — not necessarily a disabling or life-threatening incident, but another stumble by him might be seismic.

"Although the current president's predecessor wants people to believe that the Republican nomination contest is over, I wouldn't be surprised to see his aura of insufferable inevitability punctured by a Nikki Haley defeat of him in South Carolina."

CHARLIE COOK, founder, the Cook Political Report

"I wouldn't be surprised to see this election turn out to be the opposite of what the conventional wisdom is today. Within the elite class, the consensus is that the 2024 presidential election will end up being a referendum on Donald Trump, not on Joe Biden. Most see this to be about Trump as a person, his character, his legal challenges and everything that goes along with that big package of Donald Trump. That he will be the focal point of what the election will be about.

"I don't think it will.

"When a sitting president is seeking re-election, the election almost inevitably becomes about that presidency and the last four years. Do people want to renew that president's contract for another four years or not?

"Barring an adverse health event that takes either President Biden or former President Trump out of contention, this will be the first election since 1892 pitting back-to-back presidents. While 90 percent of voters, in equal proportions, are locked into supporting one party or the other, for the remaining tenth of the electorate, the temptation will be irresistible to compare the two presidencies side-by-side.

"That 10 percent will be asking themselves the question: 'Was I better off before January 20, 2021, or since that time, am I better off now?' I am not suggesting that Trump did anything right or that Biden has done things wrong, but both national polling and surveys conducted in swing states show that far more people believe things were better off before that date.

"Whether pollsters ask voters who did a better job as president, or whether they personally benefited or were hurt by the policies under Trump, and under Biden, or who do they trust more to do a better job, the numbers are not what Biden or Democrats would want to see.

"It's not my job to say who was a better president, who deserves to win, who would the country be better off with, but it is pretty clear that this election is turning out to be more about Biden than about Trump, and the perception among swing voters is that Trump did better.

"While that could change, I am not seeing any signs that this has or is happening and it is not clear to me what could change that."

BRET STEPHENS, columnist, The New York Times

"I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Biden drop out of the race just before the Democratic convention and (Michigan Gov.) Gretchen Whitmer become the party's nominee."

SARAH LONGWELL, executive director, Republicans for the Rule of Law

"I wouldn't be surprised to see polling between Trump and Biden start to tighten rather quickly because a consequential number of swing voters have yet to internalize a Trump-Biden rematch.

"Right now, these voters know what they don't like about Biden but when Trump is back front and center, they will remember all the reasons they disliked him."

AMBER McREYNOLDS, co-author of 'When Women Vote' co-author, U.S. Postal Service governor and 2023 winner of UI Alumni Achievement Award

"I wouldn't be surprised to see further deterioration of our civic health and voters faced with a convicted felon — ineligible to vote — as an option on the ballot to be president. I anticipate the former president will see more accountability from the various court proceedings and voters will need to react to that reality.

"I also anticipate we will continue to see more bad information spread about the election process — as we see today coming from influencers with large followings who know nothing about the election process.

"The simple fact is that democracy is in the ballot."

ERICK ERICKSON, former CNN and Fox News contributor hosts nationally syndicated radio show

"I wouldn't be surprised to see further Middle East and global instability cause oil prices to skyrocket and push inflation back up, thereby sending Democrats into a panic over Trump's polling and Biden's viability, potentially pushing Biden to step aside."

KEVIN MADDEN, Republican strategist, Romney for President senior adviser in 2008 and '12

"I wouldn't be surprised to see what I would call a 'holy (blank) moment' from both candidates related to their age.

"Campaigns are tough, grueling and physically taxing. With concerns about both candidates' ages, as well as an ever-present media ready to catch every misstep, we're practically assured of some event related to age that creates a major news cycle."

DANIELLE PLETKA, distinguished senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute

"I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the principal candidates keel over dead."

BRIAN KILMEADE, co-host, 'Fox and Friends'

"I wouldn't be surprised to see the majority of charges melt away against the former president and a major confrontation with Iran before the summer in the Middle East."

JONATHAN ALTER, Emmy-winning documentary filmmaker, presidential biographer

"I wouldn't be surprised to see the emergence of the 'nose-holder voter' — Democrats, independents and Republicans who don't like President Biden at all but are so rightly afraid of what Donald Trump will do in office that they commit to holding their noses and voting for Biden.

"When prominent nose-holder voters go public literally holding their noses in ads, it brings other reluctant Biden voters into their ranks."

S.E. CUPP, who hosted 'S.E. Cupp: Unfiltered' on CNN

"I wouldn't be surprised to see Donald Trump go to prison."

DAVID CORN, winner of George Polk Award for political journalism, D.C. bureau chief for progressive Mother Jones magazine

"I wouldn't be surprised to see political violence triggered by Donald Trump's extreme rhetoric.

"It could be aimed at prosecutors, judges or others involved in the criminal cases against Trump or targeted against Trump's political rivals or critics.

"This wouldn't be surprising because we already know there's only one candidate in the race whose supporters in the past have resorted to violence for his benefit. It could well happen again."

JONATHAN LEMIRE, White House bureau chief, Politico

"I wouldn't be surprised to see this become the most expensive and dispiriting presidential campaign in modern American history.

"Polls suggest that it will likely be a rematch that most Americans don't want, one sure to feature deeply personal attacks and one candidate running, in part, to stay ahead of criminal prosecution.

"And yet despite the ugliness, it will also offer the most stark choice the nation has seen in decades and the stakes couldn't be higher."