This county is key to winning just about anything statewide in Michigan

Oakland County is one of the wealthiest and most populous counties in Michigan. It’s also a hub of independent voters shifting increasingly left — making it key for Democrats in this year’s gubernatorial and U.S. House races.

The county is home to all or part of five House races, two of which — the 7th and 10th Districts — are considered swing seats in November, while hotly contested August Democratic primaries will be determinative in two others — the 11th, where incumbents Reps. Andy Levin and Haley Stevens face off, and the 12th, where Rep. Rashida Tlaib faces a well-funded challenger in Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey. 

Former President Donald Trump has endorsed the leading Republican in each of the three House races that are either toss-ups or likely Republican. But if recent election results are any indication, his support could be more of an anchor than a boon, at least in the general election in the 7th and 10th Districts.

Hillary Clinton won the county by 8 percentage points — a margin of roughly 54,000 votes — over Trump in 2016. Trump lost by 14 points, or nearly 110,000 votes, against President Joe Biden in 2020.

Long considered a bellwether for the state’s — and country’s — voting preferences, Oakland County has become more reliably blue over the past decade. That’s in part because of an influx of Black, Asian and Pacific Islander and Latino voters to the area, moving in heavily from its neighboring Wayne County which encompasses Detroit. The county is also home to a large and growing population of college graduates, another trend that’s boosted Democrats’ fortunes. Five of the six countywide elected positions are now held by Democrats.

Independent suburban women are an especially influential slice of the county electorate. The Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision, as well as K-12 education and high inflation, are expected to loom large, said several former officials from both parties.

Oakland County will play an especially critical role in the outcome of this year’s gubernatorial race. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is set to face a tough reelection battle, even as Republicans have tripped lately in their efforts to seize the opportunity in the swing state.

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The winner of the past nine gubernatorial elections has carried Oakland County.

“There’s almost no way to win statewide,” said Dave Woodward, a Democratic county commissioner and former longtime chair of the county party, “without carrying Oakland County.”

— Julia Forrest