Coup in Niger: what Prigozhin is showing Putin

There has been a coup d'état in Niger. Pro-Western President Mohamed Bazoum, elected in 2021, was removed from office.

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Colonel General Amadou Abdurahman, who headed the "National Council for the Defense of the Homeland," became the new "leader" of the state. Notably, the coup took place against the backdrop of the Russia-Africa 2023 summit, which Niger's representatives defiantly did not attend.

The second peculiarity of the situation was the demonstrative neutrality of some of the warlords operating in the east of the country. Finally, PMC "Wagner" has been implicated in involvement in the coup.

Let’s figure it out together.

From the point of view of the political situation, Niger is a rather unstable country in an unstable region. In addition to the jihadist attacks, there is a civil war (on the national-tribal principle) in neighboring Mali and Chad. The president of Chad in 2021 was assassinated in a battle with FACT rebels. Burkina Faso saw two military coups in 2022.

, in addition to gold and nickel. But a significant part of the deposits has yet to be explored and developed due to the problematic political situation. And those companies that enter, as a rule, operate under the robust force cover of PMCs.

In the case of Niger, there was an attempt by President Bazoum to find partners among the countries of the "democratic world." But he could not get significant military or financial support for the first year of work – political consultations, discussion of reforms - yes. Practical projects to stabilize the situation have only been discussed and could have begun in the next year and a half.

On the other hand, in the last two years, Russia's presence has intensified. And the well-known PMC "Wagner" was responsible for the "security" and "development" of Russian business. Let's take the neighbors of Niger:

Libya: The activities of PMC "Wagner" on the territory controlled by General Haftar (the border with Niger, among others);

Chad: Two military coups, where, as a result of the last one, forces with experience of cooperation with PMC "Wagner" came to power (and the Russian PMC itself has claimed participation in the coup);

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Mali: PMC "Wagner" fights on the side of some warlords (who agree to cooperate with the government);

Benin: President Patrice Talon openly states that the government has the right to use foreign PMCs, naming PMC "Wagner" as an example;

Nigeria: PMC "Wagner" protects the oil and gas production business of subsidiaries of "Rosneft" and "Gazprom." However, they share the "security business" with Lukoil-controlled PMC "Lukom-A" in this country.

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The only country without a clear presence of "Wagnerites" was Algeria.

In addition, the Prigozhin-controlled company Lobaye Invest operates in all of these. This is a "legal cover" for Prigozhin's business. Militants are hired through it. But the same company creates joint ventures with local leaders to explore and extract minerals. The essence of the work I described in the text about PMC "Wagner" is that in January 2023: the work on exploration is paid from the funds of local elites and, in part, from the Russian Federation (as a rule, with the money of state corporations"). The beneficiary is Prigozhin.

If a deposit allows commercial production to begin, it begins with the above-mentioned financial mechanism. The minerals extracted are sold through Prigozhin's companies in Africa and the UAE.

After obtaining proof of the economic feasibility of extraction, the created joint venture "suddenly" goes bankrupt. A new one is made, where Prigozhin's structures are replaced by structures affiliated with one or another state corporation (most often in the sphere of interests of the Sechin-Alekperov and Kovalchuk groups).

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Finally, it is worth mentioning the radio station Lengo Songo, which began broadcasting in the CAR, but in recent years has established more than 15 branches in various countries of the region and broadcasts in national languages. I emphasize: not state languages, but national languages - the languages of particular national groups. As a rule, its "campaign" in the region coincides with the arrival of the mentioned company Lobaye Invest in one or another country.

Thus, the situation for President Bazoum of Niger was extremely difficult. Russian mercenaries were active in almost all neighboring countries, and the influence of the Russian Federation was expanding. Lobaye Invest "entered" Niger as an investment company two years ago. At the same time, potentially strong Western partners were inclined to express rather moral support and deep concern.

The coup was bound to happen. And it did happen.

What does all this mean?

The date of the coup is, in some ways, indicative. Against the backdrop of the Russia-Africa summit, the president of a country that had defiantly refused to participate in the event was overthrown. Russian propaganda and diplomacy in contact with local elites will use this fact to some extent.

In the case of an anti-Western policy of the new leadership of Niger (not necessarily pro-Russian, it can be "pro-China," for example), we have a demonstration of the Kremlin's claims to participate in the politics of developing countries far from the borders of the Russian Federation. That is an attempt to reassert its geopolitical ambitions. And also a new field for blackmail by destabilizing an already turbulent region. That is, scaling the confrontation from the war in Ukraine to issues of coexistence with the EU and the U.S. globally. The Kremlin has already tried to do this at the initial stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war. It is enough to recall Syria in 2015 and Libya in 2015-16.

What happened is also an important signal from the point of view of assessing the future of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his business (it is not only about PMCs). Russia does not have enough forces to enter the region using legal structures. It does not have PMCs capable of replacing PMC "Wagner" in the region, either. That is, Prigozhin demonstrates his "need" for the Kremlin (and Putin personally) and his ability to "solve problems." Once again, it is not only about the power component: remember the media, mining business, and political technologists.

If Prigozhin's involvement took place, this would also be a powerful signal to local elites - the Wagner group is still active and can afford large-scale operations.

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And finally, this is another financial backing for Prigozhin's empire. Russia desperately needs titanium (until 2022, most of the raw material was obtained from Ukraine) and uranium. The scheme with additional exploration and extraction may work. As for Prigozhin directly, Niger has quite large deposits of gold. This metal is often used by the "Wagnerites" as a means of payment for their work. Bullion bars are taken out of the country and converted into a suitable currency in, for example, the UAE.

Does this indicate that "Prigozhin has succeeded?"

Not exactly. There was most likely no direct force participation of PMC "Wagner" mercenaries in the coup. At least, the forces of the "core" of the PMC, consisting mainly of natives of the Russian Federation and some European countries, were not involved. Local mercenaries, perhaps, but the regional press speaks about this option only as one of the probable ones. In addition, the military fought against several warlords with whom the PMC "Wagner" cooperated. Therefore, it may be more about common tactical interests with the Russians rather than strong "allied" ties.

Therefore, even with the country's new authorities, much will depend on the events of the coming months. In particular, the readiness of Western countries to stabilize the situation in the region (or at least to communicate with the junta), as well as the position of China, which may also enter Niger, leaving Russia little room for maneuver.

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In any case, the dialog on the future of Niger between global players will not begin before winter. At the same time, Russia expects to start consultations on the war in Ukraine. Success in Niger will not create a fundamentally new position for the Kremlin - Russia is gradually losing influence, and the "Niger success" will only slow down this process. But failure will be another demonstration that the Kremlin is no longer as assertive as it used to think it was.

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