Coupa Software Stock Is Estimated To Be Modestly Overvalued
- By GF Value
The stock of Coupa Software (NAS:COUP, 30-year Financials) is believed to be modestly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $274.16 per share and the market cap of $20.1 billion, Coupa Software stock appears to be modestly overvalued. GF Value for Coupa Software is shown in the chart below.
Because Coupa Software is relatively overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be lower than its business growth, which averaged 30.9% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 29.33% annually over the next three to five years.
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It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. Coupa Software has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.39, which is worse than 83% of the companies in Software industry. The overall financial strength of Coupa Software is 4 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Coupa Software is poor. This is the debt and cash of Coupa Software over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. Coupa Software has been profitable 0 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $541.6 million and loss of $2.6 a share. Its operating margin is -30.75%, which ranks worse than 79% of the companies in Software industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of Coupa Software at 3 out of 10, which indicates poor profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Coupa Software over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Coupa Software is 30.9%, which ranks better than 88% of the companies in Software industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is -22.5%, which ranks worse than 88% of the companies in Software industry.
One can also evaluate a company's profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Coupa Software's ROIC is -7.00 while its WACC came in at 10.34. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Coupa Software is shown below:
In closing, the stock of Coupa Software (NAS:COUP, 30-year Financials) appears to be modestly overvalued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is poor. Its growth ranks worse than 88% of the companies in Software industry. To learn more about Coupa Software stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
