COVID-19 cases show rise in New Mexico, but doctors see a new ballgame

May 12—The new coronavirus is becoming a different beast from the menace it once was, New Mexico physicians said Wednesday.

The numbers remain disconcerting. State COVID-19 cases and deaths have edged up recently, and hospitalizations at Christus St. Vincent Regional Medical Center in Santa Fe also have ticked upward this week.

COVID-19 has affected lives for more than two years and cut a deadly swath through the state and nation.

In New Mexico, about 7,600 people have died. Nationwide, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Wednesday the number of deaths is a few thousand shy of 1 million.

Regardless, doctors said Wednesday, the disease is transforming into an "endemic," or a more regular, part of life — troublesome, but more like the flu than the terror that has afflicted the world.

Dr. Denise Gonzales, an Albuquerque-based medical director with Presbyterian Healthcare Services, said vaccines and therapies, plus the milder nature of the BA.2 subcategory of the omicron variant, suggest to her there will be no more surges like that of late 2020.

"That was a particularly terrible wave because we didn't yet have vaccines," she said.

The CDC's daily update Wednesday showed cases rising nationwide, hospitalizations rising somewhat and daily numbers of deaths flat or declining a bit. Omicron and its subvariants are the primary culprits.

Gonzales said learning how COVID-19 behaves as an endemic disease will take a few years. For instance, she said, will it be seasonal or year-round?

Dr. Theresa Ronan, medical director of quality at Christus St. Vincent Regional Medical Center, agreed COVID-19 appears headed toward a more regular status. "And this is a route that viruses sometimes take," she said.

But COVID-19 is good at defying predictions. Christus St. Vincent, for example, reported a disturbing number Wednesday. A couple days last week no patients required hospitalization because of COVID-19, Ronan said. On Wednesday, eight were being treated for the virus.

"The trend is not in the direction that we want to see it," she said. "I'm a little hesitant to use the term 'surge' right now." She said another subvariant called BA.2.12.1 is causing concern.

Nevertheless, Dr. Jagdish Khubchandani of New Mexico State University questioned the likelihood of a big wave ahead.

"There may not be a major lethal surge soon like the one we had with the Delta variant," Khubchandani, a physician and public health professor, wrote Wednesday in an email.

Weekly statistics indicate a distinct rise in cases in New Mexico, although cases aren't viewed by some experts as a reliable indicator of trends, in part because home tests frequently aren't reported.

Dr. David Scrase, the leading health official in the state, has said hospitalizations are a better measure.

The state's weekly epidemiology report said New Mexico saw 1,764 cases in the preceding seven days as of May 9, up from 1,372 the week before. Hospitalizations, though, stood at 33 over the week ending May 9, down from 43 the previous week.

Three deaths came in over a 14-day stretch May 9, down from six over the same period ending May 2. But the daily report from the state Wednesday showed 13 new deaths.

Khubchandani said people should stay vigilant against the disease. He recommended staying current with coronavirus vaccinations and wearing an N95 mask, especially for those who who are older, have compromised immune systems or who live around people in those categories.

"We also need sustained attention from leaders and mass media for greater public awareness," Khubchandani said.

The state reported the CDC continues to monitor the omicron variant of the disease in particular. The state Health Department said omicron, first identified in New Mexico in December, makes up almost all laboratory-studied cases with a "rising trend" in the BA.2 subvariant.

Studies indicate vaccines and vaccine booster doses remain effective at preventing transmission, severe illness, and death caused by omicron, the CDC and Health Department said.

Presbyterian's Gonzales said the same strategies work against the flu and COVID-19. Wash hands thoroughly and frequently; socially distance from others; isolate if you have symptoms.

Gonzales said she started to enter a grocery store without a mask a week ago. She felt uncomfortable doing so, she said, and masked up.