COVID-19 infections appear to be headed downhill in Ventura County after months-long climb

New data show COVID-19 infections are declining in Ventura County after rising much of the summer.

California Department of Public Health metrics posted Friday show an average of about 26 infections a day per 100,000 county residents, compared to a daily rate of nearly 32 a week ago. The percentage of PCR tests coming up positive fell to 13.1%, down from 15% two weeks earlier.

The data doesn't prove the surge of infections has ended, cautioned Rigoberto Vargas, director of the Ventura County Public Health Department. Transmission is still being driven by highly contagious subvariants but the trend may be finally headed downhill.

"I don’t want to say we’re out of the woods," Vargas said. "It’s still high even though we’re trending in the right direction."

The county remains in the highest of three tiers for COVID-19 risks in a weekly ranking by the U.S. Centers for Disease and Control Prevention. But the region barely missed moving down a notch and could make that jump within a week depending on COVID-19 hospitalization levels, Vargas said.

Admissions continue to hover on a relatively low plateau, rising or falling slightly each day. On Friday, 64 people with COVID were being cared for in hospitals countywide, compared to 70 patients a day earlier. The levels are far less than peaks hit in January in an omicron surge that subsided and then was reborn, this time driven by subvariants.

The local metrics mirror a statewide trend that suggests the current surge is diminishing, said George Rutherford, epidemiologist at UC San Francisco.

"The smart money says its going to stay down for about three months or so, and we’ll get a kick with the winter," he said.

The virus will likely continue to ride a rollercoaster of surges and lulls though it may also cause less severe illness and fewer deaths, Rutherford said.

Schools are reopening across Ventura County but the activities trigger no special COVID concerns regardless of whether students and staff wear face coverings, Vargas said. Masking indoors on campuses is no longer being urged by public health with decisions left up to individuals.

"I think schools are much safer than a year or two ago," he said.

Federal COVID-19 guidelines have also been loosened, including downplaying the emphasis on social distancing. New recommendations call it "just one" component of protection.

Quarantine guidance is also changing. The CDC previously said if people who are not current on their COVID-19 vaccinations come into close contact with a person who tests positive, they should stay home for at least five days.

The agency now says quarantining at home is not necessary, but it urges those people to wear a high-quality mask for 10 days and get tested after five.

Vargas praised the new recommendations.

"We're entering a different chapter of COVID, more into the endemic stage," he said. "We’re going to learn how to adapt and co-exist."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tom Kisken covers health care and other news for the Ventura County Star. Reach him at tom.kisken@vcstar.com or 805-437-0255.

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This article originally appeared on Ventura County Star: Ventura County's COVID-19 infections appear to be sliding downhill