COVID-19 Omicron Surge About To Peak In Arizona: Analysis
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ARIZONA — The omicron coronavirus surge may peak soon in Arizona, according to health experts, offering a glimmer of hope for Americans as the COVID-19 pandemic approaches the two-year mark.
Optimism that the majority of states will see a peak in omicron variant cases by mid-February is guarded, however, clouded by fears that another variant may take its place.
An NBC News analysis of Department of Health and Human Services data shows that COVID-19 cases are trending downward in 24 states. As of Sunday, the report said, numbers declined to 706,000 average cases per day from a peak of 825,000 on Jan.15.
On Jan. 20, average hospitalizations peaked at nearly 160,000, though it takes a few days for hospitalization trends to catch up with daily infection trends, NBC explained.
"You never want to be overconfident when you're dealing with this virus," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, said Sunday on ABC's 'This Week." The coronavirus, he added, has "surprised us in the past," but he nevertheless expects a peak in most U.S. states by mid-February.
"Things are looking good. We don't want to get overconfident," Fauci reiterated, "but they look like they're going in the right direction right now."
In Maricopa County, as of Tuesday, the 7-day total of confirmed cases per 100,000 was 1,970, while the Viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity rate was 38.8 percent for the previous 7 days, according to statistics compiled by the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on the Protected Public Data Hub.
As far as hospital utilization, the county had 84 percent of its inpatient beds occupied —22 percent of those by COVID patients — and 77 percent of its ICU beds occupied —27 percent by COVID patients. There were no ventilators in use by COVID-19 patients.
In Pima County, as of Tuesday, the 7-day total of confirmed cases per 100,000 was 1,748, while the Viral (RT-PCR) lab test positivity rate was 33.5 percent for the previous 7 days, according to the HHS.
Pima County had 92 percent of its inpatient beds occupied —19 percent of those by COVID patients — and 79 percent of its ICU beds occupied —28 percent by COVID patients. There also were no ventilators in use by COVID patients in Pima County.
World health officials sounded similar optimism Monday with predictions that the omicron wave could give way to a new, more manageable phase of the pandemic.
The rapid drop of cases in most U.S. states follows a pattern seen in the United Kingdom and South Africa, with researchers predicting a period of slow spread in many countries by the end of March.
The World Health Organization issued a statement Monday anticipating an end to the "emergency phase" of the pandemic this year, and said the omicron variant "offers plausible hope for stabilization and normalization."
Fauci and Dr. Hans Kluge, the WHO's Europe regional director, both cautioned against complacency.
New coronavirus variants are almost certain to emerge, they said. But with vaccinations, new drug therapies, and testing and masks during surges, the world could reach a less-disruptive level of the disease in which the virus is "essentially integrated into the general respiratory infections we have learned to live with."
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
This article originally appeared on the Phoenix Patch
