COVID-19 in retreat, but Austin health officials looking at BA.2 variant for surge risk

Austin and Travis County coronavirus cases remain low this week following the spring festival season, with the number of COVID-19 inpatients in local hospitals staying below 50 for the past two weeks.

Austin Public Health on Friday reported that 38 people were hospitalized with the coronavirus. Of those, five were being treated in the intensive care unit and two were on ventilators. Local data for the weekend will be released Monday afternoon.

More: When will COVID-19 be over? How Austin doctors, scientists predict the future of pandemic

The area had four times as many people in the hospital early last month — 164 on March 1 — and about two times as many, 84, as recently as March 14.

Those being treated in the ICU for COVID-19 hit a pandemic record high of 237 last year on Aug. 22, while the number of those on ventilators hit a pandemic record high of 174 on Aug. 29. At that time, the community was in the grip of the highly transmissible delta variant of the coronavirus.

The community transmission rate, which tracks new cases per 100,000 people over seven days, is another key indicator health leaders monitor to best predict upcoming surges. That number was 60.2 on Friday — a decrease from 73.7 recorded on Monday and 66.6 logged on Wednesday.

More: Flu is back in Central Texas. Here's how to avoid getting sick.

The COVID testing positivity rate was 8.5% on Monday, 8% on Wednesday and down to 7.8% by Friday.

"As we've seen, COVID-19 outbreaks ebb and flow based on the virus's adaptability," Austin Public Health leaders said in a statement Friday. "Local metrics declined to low levels last spring before the delta wave hit back hard."

Austin Public Health leaders continued in the statement that the COVID-19 variant known as BA.2 now accounts for 77% of infections statewide.

And, "while this version causes mild disease for those who are not considered high risk, it's more transmissible," the statement said. "We're working on new projections to determine how many people may be hospitalized if we have a surge caused by BA.2."

Texas health officials on Friday recorded 920 people in the hospital for COVID-19 statewide, down from 931 the previous day. Since April 1, the state has reported the fewest number of Texans in the hospital in at least two years.

Austin Public Health recorded a rolling seven-day average of new daily hospitalizations of 6.4 on Friday. The number, used consistently since the spring of 2020 to gauge the risk of disease spread in the community, started the week at 6.7.

More: Austin Public Health does away with local COVID stages, aligns guidelines with CDC

The Austin area's highest seven-day average for new daily hospital admissions during the pandemic was 129, reached earlier this year on Jan. 19, when the omicron variant of the coronavirus fueled a surge in cases and hospitalizations.

The average, until last week, helped Austin Public Health determine its risk-based guidelines. Residents since the start of the pandemic became very familiar with the agency's stages, which ranged from Stage 1, when disease spread was least likely, to Stage 5, when people were most at risk of catching the virus.

Austin and Travis County residents were excited late last month about the possibility of finally reaching Stage 1 for the first time in pandemic history, but then the method of tracking stages was tossed just as hospitalizations neared the Stage 1 threshold.

Instead of moving the area to Stage 1, Austin Public Health adopted the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's method of tracking cases.

Both the CDC and Austin Public Health now categorize the COVID-19 risk levels into low, medium and high levels of disease. Austin and Travis County on Friday were in the low category.

Latest Austin Public Health recommendations

Last month, Austin Public Health lifted all COVID-19 orders because of the low number of transmission rates in the Austin area.

Still, the agency published recommendations regarding what practices residents should adopt dependent on if transmission is low, medium or high at the time.

Austin Public Health divides its guidelines into two types of people:

• People up-to-date in their COVID-19 vaccines (fully vaccinated and boosted, if they qualify for a first booster, or now a second booster if they are 50 or older).

• People who are at risk because of their personal health situations or not being up-to-date in their vaccines.

Precautions include wearing a well-fitting mask, washing hands and practicing social distancing.

For people up-to-date with their COVID-19 vaccines:

Low: Taking precautions is optional when gathering, dining and shopping.

Medium: Precautions are optional when gathering, dining and shopping. But wear a mask when social distancing is not possible.

High: Use precautions when gathering, dining and shopping.

For people who are at risk:

Low: Precautions are optional when gathering, dining and shopping.

Medium: Use precautions when gathering, dining and shopping.

High: Use precautions when gathering, dining and shopping.

Vaccine locations in Austin and Travis County

Saturday, April 9

George Morales Dove Springs Recreation Center: 9 a.m. until 12 p.m. at 5801 Ainez Drive in Austin. Vaccine: Pfizer (5+ years), Moderna (18+ years)

Del Valle Opportunity Center: Time: 9 a.m. until 2 p.m. at 5301 Ross Road in Del Valle. Vaccine: Pfizer (5+ years)

Dailey Middle School: 9 a.m. until 2 p.m. at 14000 Westall Street in Austin.Vaccine: Pfizer (5+ years)

Webb Middle School: 9:30 a.m. until 12:30 p.m. at 601 Eest St. Johns Avenue in Austin. Vaccine: Pfizer (5+ years)

El Rancho Grande: 10 a.m. until 2 p.m. at 4604 Teri Road in Austin. Vaccine: Pfizer (12+ years)

La Moreliana Market: 10 a.m. until 2 p.m. at 5405 South Pleasant Valley Road #E in Austin. Vaccine: Pfizer (12+ years)

Travis County Constable Precinct 4 Office: 10 a.m. until 4 p.m. at 4011 McKinney Falls Parkway in Austin. Vaccine: Pfizer (5+ years)

Old Sims Elementary Gymnasium: 11 a.m. until 3 p.m. at 1203 Springdale Road in Austin. Vaccine: Pfizer (5+ years), Moderna (18+ years), Johnson & Johnson (18+ years)

PREVIOUS COVERAGE: Masks at SXSW could be key to seeing record pandemic lows in Austin COVID cases, health leaders say

Sunday, April 10

Travis County Constable Precinct 4 Office: 10 a.m. until 4 p.m. at 4011 McKinney Falls Parkway in Austin. Vaccine: Pfizer (5+ years)

Monday, April 11

African American Youth Harvest Foundation: 9 a.m. and 2 p.m. at 6633 U.S. 290 #303 Austin. Vaccine: Pfizer (5+ years), Moderna (18+ years)

La Mexicana Market – Rundberg: 5:30 until 8:30 p.m. at 834 East Rundberg Lane in Austin. Vaccine: Pfizer (12+ years)

La Mexicana Market – Stassney: 5:30 until 8:30 p.m. at 5717 South I-35 Frontage Rd. C-180 in Austin. Vaccine: Pfizer (12+ years)

Poco Loco Supermercado – Cameron: 5:30 until 8:30 p.m. at 6305 Cameron Road in Austin. Vaccine: Pfizer (12+ years)

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: COVID-19 in retreat in Austin, but officials watch BA.2 for surge risk