COVID-19 risk still low, but Austin sees slight rise in hospitalization numbers

Austin Public Health for the sixth consecutive day reported a slight increase in one of its three main key indicators — the weekly rolling average for new daily hospitalizations — that help the agency track potential signs of a coronavirus surge.

Austin and Travis County had a rolling seven-day average of new daily COVID-19 hospital admissions of 7.9 on Friday, up from the average of 5.4 reported Sunday.

The county's highest seven-day average for new daily hospital admissions during the pandemic was 129 on Jan. 19.

Despite the small uptick in the hospitalization average this week, the risk of coronavirus spread in the Austin area is still considered to be low, according to Austin Public Health's updated guidelines.

On March 29, the agency created new risk-based COVID-19 guidelines that now align with ones the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention set in February.

In those guidelines, an area's COVID-19 situation is categorized into low, medium and high levels of disease. The recommendations are based on the level of disease spread and hospital resources, set on a county-by-county basis. They also are based on personal risk factors.

Austin Public Health leaders said this week that they will continue keeping a close eye on virus spread as they urge residents to get tested for COVID-19 and to wear masks when traveling ahead of upcoming graduation ceremonies and Mother's Day.

"We're going to have multigenerational groups gathering where people who are immunocompromised and at risk for severe COVID are going to be present," Dr. Desmar Walkes, Austin-Travis County health authority, said this week. "We need to do what we know to protect them."

The Austin area, according to the new guidelines, would not shift from the low to medium category unless one of the three key indicators spiked above their new recommended thresholds.

The first key indicator Austin Public Health continues to monitor in its new guidelines is the community transmission rate, which tracks new cases per 100,000 people over seven days.

The community coronavirus transmission rate on Thursday, the most recent data available, was 57.69, up from 24.33 reported Monday.

If there are 200 or more new cases per 100,000 people, then Austin and Travis County would automatically be in the medium or high level.

For the weekly rolling average of new daily hospitalizations, the Austin area would move from the low to medium category if there are between 10 and 19.9 new admissions. The CDC also uses data from many Central Texas counties like Hays, Bastrop and Williamson to determine the shift in stages.

The third key indicator, the percentage of staffed inpatient beds occupied by COVID-19 patients over seven days, was 1.1% on Friday. That number would need to be higher than 10% before health leaders would consider shifting to a higher category under its guidelines.

Austin and Travis County on Friday had 33 people in the hospital with COVID-19, according to Austin Public Health data.

Of those hospitalized, five of them were in Austin-area intensive care units. That number hit a pandemic record high of 237 on Aug. 22.

Having zero patients on ventilators was a significant accomplishment from the pandemic record high of 174 set on Aug. 29. No patients on ventilators were reported for three consecutive days.

Austin Public Health and Travis County health officials have reported 1,525 total deaths from COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic.

What precautions should I be taking right now?

Austin Public Health divides its guidelines for the low, medium and high categories into two types of people:

• People up-to-date on their COVID-19 vaccines (fully vaccinated and boosted, if they qualify for a first booster, or now a second booster if they are 50 or older).

• People who are at risk because of their personal health conditions or not being up-to-date on their vaccines.

Precautions include wearing a well-fitting mask, washing hands and practicing social distancing.

For people up-to-date with their COVID-19 vaccines:

Low: Taking precautions is optional when gathering, dining and shopping.

Medium: Precautions are optional when gathering, dining and shopping. But wear a mask when social distancing is not possible.

High: Use precautions when gathering, dining and shopping.

For people who are at risk:

Low: Precautions are optional when gathering, dining and shopping.

Medium: Use precautions when gathering, dining and shopping.

High: Use precautions when gathering, dining and shopping.

"At all levels, people can wear a mask based on personal preference, informed by their personal level of risk," Austin Public Health said in a statement Friday. "People with symptoms, a positive test or exposure to someone with COVID-19 should wear a mask."

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Austin COVID risk remains low; here's what precautions to take