COVID-19 vaccine data from VAERS misrepresented (again) to overstate risks | Fact check

Nate Trela, USA TODAY
·5 min read
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The claim: COVID-19 vaccines kill one in 1,000 recipients

An Aug. 6 post on Substack attempts to prove COVID-19 vaccines are deadly.

“VAERS data is crystal clear: The COVID vaccines are killing an estimated 1 person per 1,000 doses (676,000 dead Americans),” reads the headline on a post by Steve Kirsch, a prominent skeptic of COVID-19 vaccine safety.

The post was shared more than 1,000 times in two weeks on Facebook according to CrowdTangle, a social media analytics tool.

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Our rating: False

The post uses anecdotal data to draw baseless, sweeping conclusions about the causes of unverified deaths. The post also contains assumptions about underreporting and causes of death that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says are incorrect.

Through May 2023, just nine deaths had been linked to COVID-19 vaccines, all from rare blood clots associated with a vaccine that hasn't been available in the U.S. since that same month.

Data doesn't prove causation

The claim relies on data in the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, or VAERS, which collects anecdotal reports that anyone can enter. USA TODAY has repeatedly debunked claims based on VAERS data.

“VAERS was designed to detect rare – sometimes previously unobserved – adverse events, and changes in reporting patterns, which might indicate a potential safety concern,” John Su, a CDC medical officer, said through an agency spokesperson. “If such a concern is detected, data from more robust surveillance systems can be used to determine if an adverse event is associated with a given vaccine.”

Experts note the design of the system makes it impossible to draw conclusions about causation using it alone, and it carries a disclaimer to that effect on its site.

The disclaimer notes reports are unverified, so the volume of reports "cannot be interpreted as evidence of a causal association between a vaccine and an adverse event."

Kirsch, a former technology entrepreneur, says in the post that VAERS reports are verified but the website for downloading data files from the system specifically says some reports may be unverified.

The post’s claim that deaths after vaccination are being vastly underreported – by a factor of as much as 50 – in VAERS is also incorrect, Su said. He acknowledged that could conceivably be in the ballpark for minor adverse effects, such as a rash after a shot. A study showed less than 1% of some minor adverse events are reported to passive systems like VAERS.

But he noted that another study found as many as 76% of suspected serious adverse events are reported.

“Death is not a minor adverse event. Death is a serious adverse event,” Su said.

And, of course, reports of an event occurring after vaccination do not mean the vaccine caused it, Su noted. A person dying in a car crash after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine would be counted as an adverse event even though the two are clearly unrelated. The CDC investigates reports of deaths after vaccinations to determine if the vaccine could be a cause.

Fact check: Ivermectin still not FDA-approved as COVID-19 remedy

Kirsch questioned why a disproportionate number of deaths reported to VAERS for all vaccines came after COVID-19 vaccination. But Su said there are a number of possible explanations.

Simply being in the middle of a pandemic created greater awareness and attention to the vaccines and possible side effects, Su noted.

In addition, healthcare providers who administer COVID-19 vaccines signed agreements that required reporting of all deaths that occur after COVID-19 shots, regardless of whether the vaccine was suspected to be a cause of death. Su pointed out this is not required with other vaccines.

After the COVID-19 public health emergency was declared over in May, the CDC stopped updating counts of selected adverse events after vaccination. As of that time, it had only linked nine deaths to COVID-19 vaccines, all from rare blood clots associated with the Janssen vaccine. That vaccine has not been available in the U.S. since May.

Numerous studies have demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective, preventing the disease and carrying no greater risk of mortality for non-COVID conditions.

USA TODAY reached out to Kirsch for comment but did not immediately receive a response.

Lead Stories also debunked this claim.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: COVID-19 vaccine data grossly misrepresented in post | Fact check