COVID cases, hospitalizations are rising in NJ, but will new variant cause a surge?

After months of very low activity, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are rising in New Jersey, mirroring a national trend as a new variant has begun spreading globally and locally.

But the number of New Jerseyans getting severely ill or dying from the virus remains very low compared to the post-holiday surge in January, Health Department data shows.

Still, some public health experts are concerned. Perry Halkitis, dean of the Rutgers School of Public Health, said the latest data makes him worried over where New Jersey is "heading with COVID-19 in the next two months."

"Given these trends and that the updated booster is not available until October, serious concerns exist about even greater spread in the foreseeable future," Halkitis said.

A new variant called "Eris" has been blamed for a rise in COVID in parts of the globe.

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Eris − a nickname given to the EG.5 subvariant of Omicron − has become the most prevalent strain in the U.S. in recent weeks but only at 17% of cases. according to Centers for Disease Control estimates.

In New Jersey and New York, it accounted for 16% of cases from July 23 to Aug. 5 making it the second-most common variant in the region. There were at least 18 variants circulating in both states during those two weeks.

Weekly positive cases in New Jersey have more than doubled in a month to 1,580 in the week ending Aug. 5 − the highest since April 1, according to state data.

While those numbers may continue to increase especially when school resumes next month, Health Department officials don't expect a significant surge or any strain on hospitals from a wave of COVID admissions, said Nancy Kearney, a department spokeswoman.

One reason for the increase "is that the newest variants are more contagious and better able to evade our immune responses," Kearny said. "Vaccine protection does wane over time, which is why we continue to encourage residents to stay up-to-date."

COVID hospitalizations in New Jersey were at 260 on Monday night, the highest total since late April. But the number of COVID patients in intensive care was 23. Only five were on ventilators among 69 of 70 hospitals reporting.

In contrast, the annual surge following the December holidays caused a high of 919 in intensive care on Jan. 11 and 78 on ventilators on Jan. 15.

COVID deaths have been in the single digits for all but three weeks since late March. During the post-holiday surge, there was an average of 52 deaths a week in January.

As with the entire pandemic, the elderly and those with underlying health conditions have been getting sick more than younger, healthier individuals, Kearney said.

As of Aug. 3, COVID transmission was low in all of New Jersey's 21 counties as it has been since late March, according to the latest Health Department report.

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: COVID cases of Eris variant rising in NJ, will surge follow?