COVID, flu and RSV in Oklahoma: We asked the experts about outlook for winter viruses
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COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have soared the past two winters, stoking concerns about a third winter surge as temperatures drop again this year.
And an early, intense surge of RSV coupled with rising flu cases has some experts concerned that Oklahoma could face a flare-up of all three viruses at once that will strain the health care system.
It’s difficult to predict just what will happen in the coming months, but there are precautions you can take to stay well this winter: Consider masking when you’re feeling under the weather, when you’re in crowded settings, or when you’re around someone who may be at high risk for serious illness, experts suggested.
Vaccinations are available to protect against COVID-19 and the flu, and it’s not too late to get them. While they may not prevent you from becoming infected, they’re effective at keeping you from getting seriously ill or dying.
Here’s what you need to know about where flu, COVID-19 and RSV stand now in Oklahoma, and what may be to come:
COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations in Oklahoma low for now
Symptoms can include: Fever, chills, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, sore throat, loss of taste or smell, muscle or body aches, and headaches.
Vaccines: COVID-19 vaccines are free and available at a number of locations, including booster doses updated to better match newer subvariants circulating.
Treatments: Oral antiviral pills, antiviral infusions, and monoclonal antibody treatments.
What to know about COVID-19:
Both in the community and inside hospitals, COVID seems to be at a relative ebb, said Dr. James Kirk, an infectious disease specialist with SSM Health St. Anthony.
Kirk said he expects that as cooler temperatures force people inside and people gather more during the winter months, COVID rates will increase in the community like other respiratory viruses. But it’s difficult to predict by how much, and how newly emerging COVID-19 subvariants might behave, he said.
Omicron subvariants BQ1 and BQ1.1 have taken hold across the United States, outpacing older omicron subvariants like BA.5 in much of the country, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Aaron Wendelboe, an epidemiologist and professor with the OU Health Sciences Center, has been tracking and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Oklahoma since the early days of the pandemic. His model shows COVID-19 cases increasing into the winter months.
The model takes into account the reproductive rate of the virus, which is how contagious it is, how long people have some immunity to the virus through infection and vaccination, as well as vaccination levels.
“But then, the big wildcard is the variants,” Wendelboe said. When the delta variant took hold, he had to recalibrate the model. Then he had to recalibrate again when the omicron variant emerged.
We can't predict whether a new COVID variant could change the way this winter plays out, experts say, but vaccinations, especially the updated COVID booster, can help people avoid serious disease.
Uptake of the updated COVID-19 booster, formulated to better match omicron subvariants, has been low across the country, and Oklahoma’s rate is lower than the national average: about 6.7% of the population 5 and older has received one.
Oklahoma's flu season likely to be busier, doctor says
Symptoms can include: Fever, chills, muscle aches, cough, congestion, runny nose, headaches, fatigue, cough and sore throat.
Vaccines: Flu shots are available at a number of locations including pharmacies and doctors’ offices. It’s not too late to get a flu shot this season.
Treatments: Antiviral drugs.
What to know about the flu:
It’s shaping up to be a busier flu season than years past: Oklahoma has seen flu positivity rise significantly in the past several weeks, reaching about 13% as of the latest update. There were 83 people hospitalized so far this season, including 11 last week.
Other states, including Texas and states in the southeast, are seeing very high levels of flu, according to the CDC. Oklahoma is seeing “moderate” flu activity.
Mask-wearing made a significant impact in keeping previous flu seasons largely at bay, said Dr. David Chansolme, medical director for infection prevention at Integris Health.
“As mask fatigue has worn on, we just aren't wearing masks like we were,” he said. “We'll probably see a little bit busier (flu) season.”
In previous winters, it’s been hard to predict how COVID, flu and other viruses will behave, and this year will likely be no different in terms of having to adapt, Chansolme said.
“You're still dealing with a lot of healthcare workers that are pretty tired from years past,” he said. “We're just gonna have to play the hand we’re dealt.”
RSV is hitting kids, hospitals hard in Oklahoma
Symptoms can include: Fever, runny nose, lack of appetite, coughing, sneezing and wheezing.
Vaccines: No vaccines exist for RSV, though scientists are working to develop them.
Treatments: No specific treatments exist for RSV.
What to know about RSV:
RSV, which stands for respiratory syncytial virus, has been hitting kids hard over the past several weeks. Oklahoma’s RSV positivity rate is still above 15%, significantly higher than it’s been at this point in past seasons.
In Dr. Erin Corbin’s office, she’s seen a major uptick in sick visits — for influenza A, RSV, and other respiratory viruses.
It could be a tough winter if those viruses continue to spread at high levels, said Corbin, a Mercy pediatrician.
“I've probably admitted or tried to admit more kids from my office in the last couple of months than I had in a year,” she said. “The problem is the hospitals are full … so kids who I would have typically been able to send straight over to the hospital to a bed are having to sit in the ER where they may or may not also have beds.”
Young children, particularly those under 2, tend to have the most severe RSV cases and can sometimes wind up needing to be hospitalized. Preparing for RSV cases to continue to rise, Oklahoma’s top health official recently announced that the state would allow hospitals to request using adult hospital beds for children.
What seems to be driving this year’s rough RSV season is lower levels of population-wide immunity, experts said. Because of mask wearing during the earlier years of the pandemic, children who might normally have been exposed to RSV weren’t.
“That's part of what's contributing to this big and bad RSV season this year,” less than a particularly nasty version of the virus, Wendelboe said. “I think it's more that people have ditched the masks. And so we're back to normal transmission patterns on top of essentially, two extra years of people not having population immunity against RSV.”
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: COVID, flu, RSV in Oklahoma: What we may see with viruses this winter
