COVID will lurk on every cruise ship

Recent reports of COVID-19 infections aboard cruise ships — along with simple math — suggest that it will be nearly impossible for any cruise line to return to the seas without the coronavirus lurking.

All vaccines are less than 100% effective, so chances are strong that at least some passengers will be infected among the thousands aboard even “fully vaccinated” voyages.

Chances of more severe outbreaks are even greater in light of a court ruling Friday in favor of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who wants to stop cruise lines from requiring vaccinations.

Cruise lines faced with infections will have to perform a delicate balancing act of preventing the virus’ spread while minimizing inconveniences to uninfected passengers and crew members.

Failure to succeed on either front could spark a public relations nightmare and diminish consumers’ confidence in cruise lines’ abilities to protect passengers, experts say.

Looming over the industry’s resumption is a shared desire of industry workers, health officials and passengers to avoid a replay of the gut-wrenching drama of spring 2020, when outbreaks turned numerous ships at sea into disaster zones.

Bob Jarvis, a law professor at Nova Southeastern University, says the industry should expect infections to occur on every ship.

“There will be fewer on some, and greater numbers on others,” he said. “It’s really going to be a game of Russian Roulette. Variables will include: How big is the ship? How many are vaccinated? How old is the ship? What kind of ventilation system do they have and how aggressive will crew members be in making sure people are wearing masks, distancing, etc?”

CDC instructions point the way

Each cruise line has a detailed set of instructions from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that would guide how they respond to onboard infections. Whether they will have to follow those instructions is not known. On Friday, DeSantis and Attorney General Ashley Moody were handed a preliminary victory in a lawsuit the state filed against the federal government in April seeking to invalidate the CDC’s authority to sideline the cruise industry and dictate terms of its return to service.

A federal judge in Tampa granted the state’s request for an emergency injunction setting aside the CDC’s authority as of July 18, but left intact its regulations for resuming operations as a “non-binding ‘consideration,’ ‘recommendation’ or ‘guideline.’” The injunction did not settle the lawsuit, which is expected to continue well past the time when cruise lines plan to resume voyages this summer.

Cruise lines have a month to decide how or whether to continue to follow the CDC’s blueprint. Reached on Friday, a Carnival Corp. spokesman said the company was reviewing the court ruling. Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line spokespersons did not respond to requests for comment.

The CDC developed the guidelines last fall and tweaked them this spring after the vaccine became widely available. They spell out cruise lines’ responsibilities for preventing spread of infections, including setting up onboard testing facilities and having plans to transport infected patients to local hospitals near ships’ home ports.

Recent revisions rolled back some of the strictest rules for cruises that sail with at least 95% of passengers vaccinated but kept infection response criteria intact.

The severity of infections will trigger various levels of response, ranging from quarantining passengers in staterooms if only a small number are infected to canceling cruises and returning to homeports if an outbreak reaches a high threshold.

Disclosures of just a handful of positive tests aboard three ships provoked concern throughout the cruise and travel industries over recent days. On Tuesday, Royal Caribbean International postponed planned sailings of its new Odyssey of the Seas megaship out of Port Everglades after eight out of 1,400 crew members tested positive. The crew members had been vaccinated but tested positive before the 14 days it takes for the vaccines to be considered fully effective.

Earlier in June, a fully vaccinated American couple tested positive aboard a Celebrity Cruises ship out of St. Maarten. That couple did not show symptoms but were quarantined for the remainder of their cruise. A few days before that, an MSC Cruises ship sailing the Mediterranean offloaded two unvaccinated, asymptomatic passengers in Italy after they tested positive.

“There’s no doubt there will be COVID cases on ships” as cruise lines resume operations from Florida ports and elsewhere over the coming weeks, said Michael Winkleman, a Miami-based maritime attorney. “July is critically important for the entire industry. They’re going to be under a microscope. It’s important for them to get it right.”

If they get it wrong — if an outbreak infects enough passengers that a ship will be forced to cut its voyage short and return to its home port — “there’s a chance that all voyages could be canceled for the rest of 2021,” Winkleman said.

Vaccine mandate seen as vital

As Winkleman sees it, DeSantis holds the key to success or failure.

The Republican governor is so far refusing to carve out an exemption for cruise lines to his executive order and subsequent law barring businesses from requiring proof of vaccinations.

Eager to assure passengers that they will be safe, cruise lines have signaled that they would prefer to relaunch with vaccination requirements, at least until COVID-19 is no longer a global health threat. But DeSantis, critics say, is more eager to please his political base, which includes a disproportionate number of people who refuse to get vaccinated.

DeSantis has presented his vaccine passport ban as necessary to preserve individual liberty, prevent discrimination on the basis of vaccination status, and protect individuals’ rights to keep their medical histories private.

His intransigence on the issue could provoke confrontations with the industry’s global leader, Carnival Cruise Line, along with Celebrity Cruises and Norwegian Cruise Line — all of which have announced vaccination requirements for upcoming voyages scheduled to depart from Florida ports.

Celebrity Cruises’ Celebrity Edge is scheduled to be the first to test DeSantis’ decree when it departs Port Everglades on June 26 with fully vaccinated passengers, before Friday’s court order takes effect.

Carnival plans to require vaccinations for sailings of its new ship Mardi Gras on July 31 and Carnival Magic on Aug. 7 from Port Canaveral and for Carnival Horizon on July 4 and Carnival Sunrise on Aug. 14 out of Miami. A limited number of exemptions will be granted for children and other guests who are not eligible for the vaccine.

Norwegian Cruise Line also plans to require vaccinations for passengers boarding its Norwegian Gem in Miami on Aug. 15. Norwegian’s CEO has threatened to move its ships out of Florida if a vaccination requirement is not allowed.

Vaccination requirements are seen by cruise lines, federal health authorities and a majority of avid cruisers as the safest way to resume operations. Because most people who test positive after being fully vaccinated suffer minimal effects, the likelihood of a widespread outbreak of sickness and possible death on fully vaccinated cruises is considered very low.

If trouble does erupt, it will most likely happen aboard ships sailing without vaccine requirements, Winkleman and others argue.

Amy Powell, an attorney representing the CDC in the lawsuit filed by Florida, told the judge in a recent hearing that the CDC has data indicating that transmission rates aboard cruise ships are five times greater than elsewhere.

Royal creates deterrents

Royal Caribbean International recently avoided a showdown with DeSantis by announcing it will not require vaccinations for ships departing Florida, though it strongly encourages guests to get vaccinated.

Anyone determined to sail without being vaccinated should prepare for additional costs and hassles that won’t be required for vaccinated guests, the cruise line announced.

Unvaccinated guests 16 and over will have to undergo three COVID-19 tests. The first must be taken no more than three days before sailing and show proof of a negative result. The second must be taken when checking in at the terminal. The third must be taken onboard prior to returning home. The second and third tests will be taken by a third party testing vendor hired by Royal Caribbean and will increase each traveler’s trip cost by $136.

That means if a family of four adults want to travel together and none are vaccinated, it will cost the family an extra $544. Tests for children ages 2 to 15 will be “complimentary,” according to the cruise line’s website.

Once on board, the inconveniences will continue. Onboard venues and events will be available for vaccinated guests only. “We’ll do our best to create opportunities for all guests to enjoy their time with us,” Royal’s website pledges.

Vaccinated passengers won’t be required to wear masks in bars, lounges, restaurants “or at events designated for vaccinated guests only,” it says. Unvaccinated passengers will be required to dine in a designated area of the ship’s main dining room. They will also be required to maintain social distancing “especially when interacting with those outside of their traveling party.”

Trouble is most likely to erupt aboard unvaccinated cruises, said Jim Walker, a Miami-based maritime attorney and author of the blog Cruise Law News.

Onboard infections among unvaccinated guests are certain to occur and “many will involve serious cases where the guests receive critical emergency care,” he said.

“Going to sea with unvaccinated passengers creates an unreasonable danger, not only to those who choose to be unvaccinated, but also residents of the port communities where the ships call,” particularly in destinations like the Bahamas, Dominican Republic and Mexico with substantially lower vaccination rates than the U.S., he said.

Separating vaccinated and unvaccinated passengers onboard the same ship could lead to “absolute bedlam,” Walker said. “There will be an inevitable clash along political lines between vaccine skeptics/COVID-19 skeptics/COVID-19 deniers and people who are fully vaccinated and believe in the common good of becoming vaccinated to break the spread of the virus and support the CDC protocols.”

Some travelers not concerned

But while industry watchers voice concerns about potential infections, travel agents say the customers they talk to trust that the cruise lines will do the right thing.

“I have had very few clients voice concern,” said Chris Caulfield, owner of CruiseOne in Croton-on-Hudson, New York. “Most of my clients just want to cruise again and know the cruise lines will provide a safe experience.”

Jennifer Walker, owner of Jennifer Walker Travel in Washington, Illinois, said her clients are more concerned about their ability to cancel or change their trip without penalty, where they might get a COVID-19 test outside of the U.S., and what happens if they test positive outside the U.S.

“They aren’t asking me whether the crew of a ship, or the staff at a resort hotel are 100% vaccinated, or if their fellow guests are,” she said. “They aren’t asking me how frequently cleaning is done, or with what products. They assume that if the business is in operation, they are complying with current cleaning requirements.”

Steward Chiron, who runs a discount travel booking site called The Cruise Guy, says some clients voice concerns about sailing on ships without vaccination requirements. “I’ve seen people switch ships and cruise lines to be on fully vaccinated sailings,” he said.

A majority of clients who book trips through Laurel Brunvoll’s Unforgettable Trips agency in Gaithersburg, Maryland, “are happy if they hear that vaccinations are required, but there are those who do not want mandatory vaccination requirements,” Brunvoll said.

Others will wait and see

Yet-unknown numbers of experienced cruisers say they are happy to remain on the sidelines for now and see how it goes.

“Cruising now is just too risky,” said Kathleen Staat of Mesa, Arizona. “I cannot afford to take the chance that I might be denied boarding a cruise ship if I test positive, even though I have been vaccinated.” At the same time, “I cannot afford to take the chance that I could be denied entry back into the U.S.”

Porsha Davis of Lanham, Maryland, said she plans to cruise in the future but feels this year is way too soon. “Even a small number of passengers testing positive still poses a risk to my health, she said. Cruise lines, she said, should not allow unvaccinated travelers on board “as there is no way to guarantee they will keep masks on and practice social distancing.”

Antonio Ruiz of Greenville, Pennsylvania, however, said he’s ready to go — next year.

“There is some concern,” he said, “but with my wife and I both being vaccinated and having a good supply of N95 masks and Lysol, the concern for us is minimal. We also always have a balcony, which would help should the ship go into lockdown.” Ruiz and his wife are booked for a cruise in September 2022.