COVID rise may be coming to Ventura County; timing and size remain unknown

The COVID-19 rise emerging on the East Coast and in Europe is likely headed to Ventura County, but the timing, trajectory and magnitude is anyone's guess, Ventura County Health Officer Dr. Robert Levin said Friday.

"We don't know if we're going to get a knuckleball, a curveball or a fastball," he said.

Levin said the pattern of previous surges indicate the rise in hospitalizations in places like New York and New Hampshire, as well as the emerging wave overseas driven by a mixture of variants, will move west.

"History tells us it will," he said.

Currently, COVID activity sits at a "low plateau" in the county, Levin said. The case rate — a daily average of 5.9 infections per 100,000 people — is the lowest since May. At least 23 people with COVID were receiving hospital care across the county as of Thursday, less than half the number two months ago.

Only one COVID patient in the county required an intensive care unit.

"I think we’re low enough that people are significantly more relaxed about COVID," Levin said. "I don’t know if that’s a good thing or not. I think people need the mental break but I think there are still precautions people should be taking."

People should still consider wearing masks in public indoor places, Levin said. When they're sick, they should stay home until they test negative and symptoms subside.

Local doctors urged people to get vaccinated and boosted. Levin said demand for the bivalent boosters, tailored for omicron variants of the virus and released locally in September, started slow but has picked up in recent weeks as news circulates of a possible winter rise in cases.

Eligibility for the boosters expanded earlier this month to people 5 years of age and older. People who want boosters need to have their primary vaccinations and be at least two months removed from their last dose.

Several doctors in local emergency rooms and primary care offices said COVID cases have diminished but have not disappeared.

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"We had two months where it was everywhere," said Dr. Uldine Castel, a Ventura family physician. She said the pace has decreased significantly in the last two weeks.

Dr. Jim Hornstein, also of Ventura, said his COVID cases have slowed to about one or two a week. He still cautions his patients about the risks of virus on international flights, cruises and trips to cities with reputations as COVID hot spots.

Dr. George Yu, a Camarillo pulmonologist who has treated COVID patients since the pandemic began early in 2020, contended the uptick has already begun and will get worse because of the surge emerging in Europe.

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He predicted the coming wave will spread at an alarming pace similar to the omicron surge a year ago, hitting many people who have evaded infection for nearly three years.

"You will meet the virus," he said, noting the chances of severe illness and death fall dramatically for people who are vaccinated and boosted. People at higher risk of severe illness should also ask about Paxlovid or other treatment as soon as they test positive, Yu said.

In addition to COVID, flu has also arrived early. Hornstein said he started seeing cases of influenza A in September — the earliest in his 35 years as a doctor.

Levin said the county's first flu-related death of the season was reported earlier this month. He declined to reveal any details because of patient confidentiality.

He and other doctors urged people to get their flu shots.

Gov. Gavin Newsom announced on Oct. 17 California's COVID state of emergency will end Feb. 28, nearly three years after it began. The declaration delivered the authority for vaccine mandates and stay-at-home orders. It also allowed the state to enter into nearly $12 billion of contracts with test facilities and others.

Levin declared a health emergency in Ventura County on March 12, 2020. That declaration mirrors many of the provisions in the California proclamation and will likely be rescinded when the statewide action ends, said Rigoberto Vargas, county public health director.

Nearly all COVID restrictions have already been removed. The declaration stays in place in part because it helps qualify the county for federal aid related to COVID. The eligibility would end in many cases when the state's emergency order expires, Vargas said.

"We would be aligned with the state," he said.

CalMatters contributed to this report.

Tom Kisken covers health care and other news for the Ventura County Star. Reach him at tom.kisken@vcstar.com or 805-437-0255.

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This article originally appeared on Ventura County Star: COVID-19 rise may come to Ventura County after 'low plateau'