COVID surge predicted for early March

Keri Gordon, Tahlequah Daily Press, Okla.
·3 min read
40

Feb. 23—The days of social distancing, face masks, and quarantining may be over, but COVID is here to stay.

Researchers at Oklahoma State University developed a new method of predicting surges of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, using genomic surveillance.

According to a news release from OSU, Dr. Pratul Agarwal, assistant vice president of research and professor of physiological sciences in the OSU College of Veterinary Medicine, and his colleagues combined their skills in bioinformatics, data analysis, and software engineering to create a framework for real-time genomic surveillance.

"They collaborated with experts from Dr. Shozeb Haider's team at the University College London School of Pharmacy to make this possible. The resulting information is now being shared in the form of a pandemic preparedness dashboard and alert system aimed at providing medical personnel and the general public time needed to prepare for an influx of infectious disease cases," the OSU news release stated.

Dr. Agarwal's team can forecast COVID-19 surges at least two to four weeks before they occur, and they've predicted every surge since last fall.

According to a COVID-19 surge watch, the latest observation since Jan. 30 indicates a possible surge in three to four weeks.

Scientists use genomic sequencing to identify variants. Viral specimens are collected from a portion of people who test positive for COVID-19, and after a test is determined to be positive, additional time is required to prepare and sequence the viral specimen, and then analyze the sequence data, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Dr. John Galdamez, Cherokee Elder Care executive medical director, internal medicine, who chaired the City of Tahlequah Crisis Task Force, has said COVID-19 is here to stay, just as influenza has been around for centuries.

The Oklahoma State Department of Health reported an increase of COVID-19 cases in statewide since Jan. 26, with 159 new cases in Cherokee County, plus one death.

OSDH reported on Feb. 23 that 4,784 cases were active. The Provisional Death Count from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for Health Statistics was 17,887.

The seven-day rolling average for the number of new cases was 318. Oklahoma has now listed 1,284,450 total cases since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020.

On Feb. 23, Cherokee County was listed by the OSDH as having logged 17,492 positive cases since the pandemic started. The total number of deaths for the county now stands at 166; it hasn't increased in a few weeks.

The CDC reported Thursday that the level of community transmission for Cherokee County now stands at the low level, or the "green zone."

As of Feb. 23, the OSDH reported 6,727,892 doses of vaccine have been administered, with 2,392,271 series completed.

Residents can register at vaccinate.oklahoma.gov to receive a notification when they are eligible to schedule a vaccine appointment. For more information, visit https://oklahoma.gov/covid19.htm.

To view the COVID-19 surge predictions, visit http://pandemics.okstate.edu/covid19/.