This crazy Arizona congressional race is turning into the 'Hunger Games'

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On Monday, state Sen. Anthony Kern announced he’s running to represent the northwest Valley in Congress.

Wednesday saw the return of ex-Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned six years ago just ahead of a House investigation into the ethics of propositioning your female aides to carry your baby.

On Thursday, it was Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma, a conservative underdog in his own district given that he’s not part of the America First crowd.

Then there are the itinerate politicians, Abe Hamadeh of Scottsdale and Blake Masters of Tucson, who parachuted in two weeks ago when Rep. Debbie Lesko announced her retirement.

Two carpet baggers, a fake elector, a former congressman with a sizable ick factor and an traditional Republican who faces an uphill slog (because he's a traditional Republican).

I’m picturing the “Hunger Games,” where the last guy standing scores a congressional seat for life

Hamadeh remains the frontrunner

Abe Hamadeh greets the audience at Kari Lake's announcement rally at Jetset Magazine in Scottsdale on Oct. 10, 2023.
Abe Hamadeh greets the audience at Kari Lake's announcement rally at Jetset Magazine in Scottsdale on Oct. 10, 2023.

Before you ask about Democrats, this is a solidly Republican district. No Democrat has won here since Bob Stump in 1980 and he became a Republican shortly thereafter.

Hamadeh starts out as the frontrunner, as Kari Lake quickly decreed that this Scottsdale resident was just the ticket for representing the northwest Valley.

Of all the MAGA losers in 2022, Hamadeh was the least loserish, having lost the attorney general’s race by just 280 votes.

But his candidacy reeks of an annoying ambition to just get elected to something, anything. The ink on Lesko’s retirement announcement wasn’t even dry when he jumped in, apparently abandoning a plan to challenge Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell.

Masters will have deep pockets

Blake Masters leaves after speaking with tribal leaders during a meeting organized by the Inter Tribal Association of Arizona at the Sheraton Grand at Wild Horse Pass at the Gila River Indian Community on Oct. 27, 2022.
Blake Masters leaves after speaking with tribal leaders during a meeting organized by the Inter Tribal Association of Arizona at the Sheraton Grand at Wild Horse Pass at the Gila River Indian Community on Oct. 27, 2022.

Masters, at least, had the grace to wait a few days, though he likely should have spent those days in the district. His campaign announcement video looked like it was filmed on his home turf, more than 100 miles from the voters he seeks to represent.

Masters, like Hamadeh, has solid name ID having run for the U.S. Senate in 2022. He’s already snagged endorsements from Reps. Paul Gosar and Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, a fellow acolyte of Republican megadonor Peter Thiel. He can likely reach into some deep pockets to fund his campaign.

But like Hamadeh, Masters has no record to run on because he’s never been elected anything.

Franks has a record but he also has some explaining to do, about how he came to be pestering female subordinates to serve as a surrogate mother.

The ewww factor is strong with this one.

Toma can stand on a strong record

Arizona House Speaker Rep. Ben Toma, R-Glendale, waits to start the opening session of the 56th Legislature in Phoenix on Jan. 9, 2023.
Arizona House Speaker Rep. Ben Toma, R-Glendale, waits to start the opening session of the 56th Legislature in Phoenix on Jan. 9, 2023.

Kern lives in the district, but it’s difficult to see how a fake elector who ignored the will of the people in 2020 could actually become the will of the people in 2024. I look for him to announce that after prayerful consideration, he’s decided Arizona really needs him in the Legislature.

That leaves Toma, who lives in the district and has a solid conservative record, having spearheaded the drives to create a flat income tax and universal school vouchers.

What he doesn't have is one of those rockin' Make America Great Again hats.

He does have Lesko's endorsement, though. And he seems likely to land all the local mayors — Surprise, Peoria, Glendale — along with Maricopa County Supervisor Clint Hickman, who has deep roots in the West Valley.

The downside for Toma will be time and money. Time, because he’s got a day job as House speaker.  And money, because chances are he doesn’t have any.

Doug Ducey, a fundraising machine and no admirer of the MAGA movement, could come to his aid, given Toma’s role in helping the former governor pass his signature achievements.

Not all Republican strategists, however, are optimistic about Toma’s chances.

“I think Hamadeh and/or Masters will run him over,” one longtime consultant told me. “I could be wrong but I think it will be tough.”

Still, my money’s on Toma, assuming he's hungry enough to put up a fight.

If ever the Republican Party is going to escape the clutches of the far right …

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter at @LaurieRoberts.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Republican race for CD8 is turning into the 'Hunger Games'