Crime rates have spoiled past Savannah Council reelection bids. Will trends matter in 2023?

This is the City Talk column by Bill Dawers, a longtime contributor to the Savannah Morning News.

Crime in Savannah has posed difficult questions about city policies, funding and personnel for decades.

And crime has often proved a potent political issue, especially in 1991 when Susan Weiner won the mayor’s race against longtime incumbent John Rousakis and again in 2015 when challenger Eddie DeLoach denied Edna Jackson a second term as mayor.

In that 2015 race, crime was a prominent issue down the ballot as well, with impacts on several aldermanic races.

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It’s unclear at this point how much Savannah’s chronic crime problems will affect the elections in November, but the numbers suggest that we are unlikely to see a repeat of the dynamics from 2015.

According to the crime statistics through March 11 as reported by the Savannah Police Department, the city has had just one homicide in 2023. That’s down from six homicides year-to-date in 2022 and seven for the same time frame in 2021.

Other violent crimes have been reported in similar numbers for this year as last year. There have been 15 reported rapes so far in 2023 compared to 17 for the same period in 2022, but it’s worth keeping in mind that sexual assaults are underreported. There have been 51 total robberies reported this year compared to 55 last year.

The 159 reported aggravated assaults so far in 2023 are on par with the number reported in 2022, although the assaults this year have been more likely to involve guns. The increase in gun violence suggests that the decline in homicides might be due to chance.

There were 879 Part 1 property crimes reported in Savannah through March 11 compared to 869 as of the same date in 2022.

Mayor Van Johnson and other incumbents could cherry-pick crime data as they campaign for reelection, but there’s not much political upside in pointing out that crime is just as bad this year as it was last year.

Of course, crime is measured by more than simple numbers.

Savannah Police Chief Lenny Gunther has seemed to inspire more confidence since taking over as interim chief last July and becoming permanent in December, but there could be lingering political repercussions from the tenure of his predecessor Roy Minter. City officials seemed to keep Minter on board for too long after concerns about understaffing and dissatisfaction among officers.

Savannah voters have still not received enough information about the death of William Zachary Harvey in police custody in 2021 or the police shooting of Saudi Arai Lee in 2022. Harvey’s family recently filed a $12 million lawsuit against the city and various city officials.

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A recent late-night shooting at Congress and Jefferson streets raised further questions about safety in the City Market area, which saw a spate of violence last year.

As election season gears up, residents will be asking candidates hard questions about the crime trends, about specific cases and about the general effect of crime on Savannah’s culture and identity.

Challengers will no doubt try to use these issues against Mayor Van Johnson and other incumbents, but they might struggle to convince a cynical electorate that they have viable solutions.

Contact Dawers at @billdawers on Twitter and CityTalkSavannah@gmail.com.

This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: Savannah crime trending down in election year may impact results