Crisis of insubordination grips Russian military command as commanders face dismissals, arrests – ISW

The Russian military command finds itself embroiled in a crisis of insubordination that could have far-reaching implications for the occupying army. Speculations regarding dismissals, suspensions, and potential arrests of commanders from highly trained units within the Russian Federation are circulating within the pro-war community in Russia.

These revelations stem from a recent assessment by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on July 16.

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According to experts at ISW, the Russian Ministry of Defense has initiated the removal of commanders from some of the most combat-ready units and formations of the Russian Armed Forces, with indications of an expedited process. The following reports from Russian sources have been highlighted:

• General Colonel Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, recently confirmed his own dismissal.

• Major General Vladimir Seliverstov, commander of the 106th Guards Airborne Division, has reportedly been dismissed, but no official confirmation has been made.

• On July 15, personnel from the 7th Guards Mountain Airborne Division (VDV) released an audio message, alleging that Major General Alexander Kornev, commander of the 7th VDV Division, was dismissed by the Russian military command in early July.

• Major General Ramil Ibatullin, commander of the 90th Tank Division (Eastern Military District), and his two unnamed deputies, are potentially facing arrest, although no confirmation has been provided, and dates of events remain unspecified.

• Pro-Kremlin war correspondents speculate that Colonel Sergei Karasov, commander of the 31st VDV Brigade, may also face dismissal.

• Reports from Russian sources indicate that the Russian Ministry of Defense might be preparing to arrest Lieutenant General Mikhail Teplinsky, commander of the Russian Airborne Troops (VDV).

ISW has not yet confirmed the dismissals of Seliverstov, Kornev, or the arrest of Ibatullin, “although these claims follow a pattern similar to that of previous claims of command changes that have proven true,” the analysts note. They also report that the aforementioned accounts pertain to Russian units involved in defensive and offensive operations on strategic fronts in Ukraine, including Zaporizhzhya Oblast and the flanks of the Bakhmut direction, as well as areas further west in the Kremlin-controlled Luhansk Oblast (specifically where the 90th Tank Division is attempting offensive actions).

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According to ISW analysts, it is speculated that in most instances, commanders are being dismissed or suspended due to signs of insubordination, which appear to be spreading among certain soldiers. Particularly, in an alleged audio recording purportedly distributed by fighters from the 7th VDV Division, Russian military personnel threaten to withdraw from their positions in the occupied Kherson Oblast if the Russian Ministry of Defense arrests VDV commander Mikhail Teplinsky or poses a threat to his life.

If the authenticity of this audio is verified, it effectively signifies a threat of widespread desertion by Russian military personnel defending Teplinsky.

Teplinsky himself has previously set a precedent for acts of insubordination, which are now being observed within the Russian army. This pertains to the winter of 2023, when the Russian Ministry of Defense attempted significant personnel changes within the Armed Forces to replace commanders who were unwilling to subordinate themselves to Shoygu and Gerasimov during the invasion of Ukraine. Teplinsky was one of those commanders, and he was suspended in January following a likely altercation with Valery Gerasimov regarding the involvement of elite VDV forces in aggressive “meat-grinder” attacks in Donbas.

Later on, Teplinsky publicly voiced his dissatisfaction and implied the responsibility of the higher command, following which he was reintegrated into operations in Ukraine.

The consistent disregard for the chain of command within the Russian command structure by the Kremlin has likely hindered Sergei Shoygu and Valery Gerasimov in their efforts to suppress defiance and establish complete control over the Russian army in Ukraine.

ISW highlights that Putin consistently bypassed or disregarded the established command structure, often directly contacting lower-ranking commanders in the hopes of achieving swift success on the battlefield.

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Throughout the war, the dictator effectively undermined the authority of Shoygu and Gerasimov, especially as military failures on the front line tarnished their reputations.

“Putin fostered an environment where military personnel, officials, and even Russian ‘war correspondents’ circumvented Shoygu and Gerasimov to present their own interpretations of the current state of the war and recommendations on how to proceed to Putin,” recalls ISW.

Overall, the supreme commander’s attempts to solicit the opinions of subordinates who oppose the senior military leadership are seen as “problematic but not an uncommon phenomenon” in armies. However, the allowance of a quasi-commander like Prigozhin to conduct his own military campaign without subordination to the formal chain of command is deemed “extremely rare and severely undermines the authority of the official military leadership,” according to the analysts.

In general, Putin has effectively made the Russian Ministry of Defense a scapegoat for all Russian military failures, burdening Shoygu and Gerasimov with a reputation of incompetence and repeated failures that they are unlikely to overcome, the analysts emphasize.

ISW also presents several conclusions and assumptions regarding the hypothetical “rebellion” of several high-ranking commanders in the Russian army:

• Russian commanders are likely spreading relevant narratives among Russian military personnel on the front lines in order to protect themselves from punishment for insubordination by the Russian Ministry of Defense. This includes drawing attention to the risk of dismissal or arrests of commanders, which further increases the potential for widespread demoralization.

• Russian veteran and ultranationalist communities are actively defending the “defiant” commanders, intensifying defeatist discussions that can directly impact the morale of Russian military personnel.

• The current crisis within the Russian command structure and its consequences for the morale of the Russian Armed Forces are likely to worsen Russian capabilities to conduct crucial tactical offensive operations in southern Ukraine. The flexible defense strategy, where the first echelon slows down the movement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the second echelon counterattacks from prepared defensive positions, may be affected. However, problems with command and control in the Russian army could potentially lead to a lack of cohesion among defensive units, especially as the Ukrainian forces attempt to advance along the seams of the Russian defense.

• The ongoing crisis within the Russian command structure poses a broader threat of demoralization for Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine. The disputes over insubordination and command changes are likely to gain attention from a widening internal audience, as the Russian ultranationalist “war correspondent” community closely monitors and disseminates these events.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sections of the front in the past day and reportedly achieved limited success.

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Geolocated footage published on July 15 indicates that Ukrainian forces made limited progress northwest of Staromykhailivka (9 km south of Velyka Novosilka) on the border of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya oblasts.

According to Major Valerii Shershen, spokesman for the Ukrainian Tavria Task Force, Ukrainian forces advanced 1 km in an unspecified area in the Berdyansk direction.

The General Staff of Ukraine also reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued counteroffensive actions in the Melitopol direction, located west of Zaporizhzhya Oblast.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar stated that Ukrainian troops continued to advance in the area of Bakhmut and defended new positions on the flanks of Bakhmut from Russian attacks. Some Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces liberated Zaliznyanske (13 km north of Bakhmut), parts of heights near Klishchiivka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut), and a fortified area west of Andriyivka (10 km south of Bakhmut).

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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine