Cristobal expecting annual improvement, more roster changes. And what’s realistic for UM

Since his hiring, Miami Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal has declined to offer a timetable for how long it will take to transform the Hurricanes into a national championship contender.

But he offered some insight during a private discussion with several former Canes players and teammates at UM’s recent alumni weekend. He conveyed an expectation of steady, annual improvement, and that seems reasonable.

According to one of those former players, Cristobal told them that the Canes will be better in 2023 and real good in 2024.

The former player said Cristobal turned his back and mumbled when referencing 2025, but that former player said their takeaway was that the Canes could be championship contenders in 2025, provided they put together two more recruiting classes like the most recent one.

And Cristobal was blunt in a sideline interview with ESPN’s Pete Thamel after the spring game, saying UM’s roster could look “significantly” different in August. “I’ve been very fortunate to have coached and played for some very good coaches, and that blueprint has stood the test of time. To make that blueprint work, we still have to enhance the caliber of talent on our roster.”

UM has added one transfer so far (Oklahoma cornerback Jaden Davis) and has offers out to more than a dozen others, with the focus on defensive tackles, more defensive backs and receivers. A UM official said the Canes have no offers out to transfer quarterbacks but are monitoring the portal.

UM aced the 2023 class — adding elite talent on the offensive line, two really good running backs, two speedy receivers and three talented pass rushers, plus help at multiple other positions.

They’re up to seven nonbinding commitments for 2024, with one four-star prospect (receiver Chance Robinson) the most ballyhooed of the group.

UM remains very much in the mix for a bunch of top 150 players. Four top-150 defensive line prospects attended the spring game, including Texas-based five-star edge rusher Colin Simmons and Chicago-based five-star defensive tackle Justin Scott.

Cristobal’s track record as a recruiter suggests he will lure top talent.

But anyone expecting an immediate jump from five-to-seven wins to 10 wins is probably overly optimistic.

“Where are the elite playmakers, other than Kamren Kinchens?” said one UM source who has watched closed practices this spring. “We need electrifying players, difference-makers. The roster still has big holes.”

The source noted — and I don’t dispute this — that UM is simply decent at cornerback and receiver and defensive tackle, has no proven high-end running back, and has questions at linebacker and tight end.

Backup quarterback also is a concern; two UM sources said that while Jacurri Brown is improved, his accuracy remained uneven this spring. That was the case in the spring game.

I’m cautiously optimistic that UM could jump from five wins to perhaps seven or eight because:

1). The offensive line is much better with the additions of guard Javion Cohen (Alabama) and center Matt Lee (UCF).

2). Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson will do a better job than predecessor Josh Gattis in maximizing the talents of Tyler Van Dyke and the offensive playmakers.

3). Linebacker should be better with the addition of Washington State’s Francisco Mauigoa and the expected growth of Wesley Bissainthe.

4). A few of the second-year players, led by Nyjalik Kelly, seem ready to take another step.

In my view, there are also eight wild cards that could swing the win total by two, three or four games:

1). If Van Dyke can get back to his 2021 form, that could conceivably get UM to nine wins.

2). If Leonard Taylor can take a jump from good to Gerald Willis-2018-type great, that would make a big difference.

3). If safety James Williams becomes as good as Kinchens and evolves into a legitimate five-star difference maker.

4). If two receivers among Jacolby George, Xavier Restrepo, Brashard Smith and Colbie Young become as productive as, say, Charleston Rambo during the 2021 season. George, Restrepo and Young were very productive this spring.

5) If tight end Elijah Arroyo, who hasn’t played since a September injury, can become as impactful as Brevin Jordan was.

6). If a handful of a dozen-plus key first- or second-year players can become impact players immediately, that would make an enormous difference.

That group includes three running backs (freshmen Mark Fletcher and Christopher Johnson and second-year player TreVonte’ Citizen, who’s coming off a major knee injury); freshman right tackle Francis Mauigoa (who spent most of spring with the first team); freshmen receivers Nathaniel Joseph and Robby Washington (Joseph was dynamic in the spring game); tight end Jaleel Skinner; young passer rushers Rueben Bain (the most impressive of the early arrival freshmen on defense) and Kelly; and a young corner from a group including Chris Graves and incoming freshmen Damari Brown and Robert Stafford.

7). If UM can land a legitimate No. 1 or 2 wide receiver in the transfer portal and a run-stuffing defensive tackle to replace FSU-bound Darrell Jackson and two more rotational defensive backs.

8). If Jalen Rivers or Zion Nelson (knee still a question) can give UM very good play at left tackle. Rivers is probably better at guard than tackle, but unless Nelson returns to health or five-star freshman Samson Okunlola takes a big jump this summer, Rivers might be the best option to start the season.

That’s a lot of wild cards, a lot that must go right after a year in which the Canes lost by 42 to FSU, 30 to Clemson, 26 to Pittsburgh, 24 to Duke and 14 to Middle Tennessee State.

And it tells you why Cristobal, during a private moment with former Canes players, is making no promises of greatness in 2023.

I could see some Canes fans being angry if UM enters November at 5-3 after these first eight games: Miami (Ohio), Texas A&M, Bethune Cookman, at Temple, Georgia Tech, at North Carolina, Clemson and Virginia.

Some advice: Set modest expectations. Otherwise, you’ll be setting yourself up for disappointment during year two of what seems more like a four-year plan to get the Canes back to championship contention.