How should Cristobal’s first two UM seasons be viewed? Vastly different arguments offered

Politics aside, there’s no more polarizing topic in South Florida than how to view the first two years of Mario Cristobal’s tenure as Miami Hurricanes coach.

First, let’s start with the few facts that most of us should be able to agree on.

On one hand, Cristobal has dramatically augmented the talent from what was left behind by Manny Diaz. UM’s top-seven-rated 2023 recruiting class was very much as advertised, highlighted by immediate impact players Rueben Bain, Francis Mauigoa and Mark Fletcher Jr.

And the 2024 class — currently 26 players strong — is ranked between 11 and 14 by recruiting sites.

On the other hand, the bottom-line results — 5-7 last season, 7-5 this season — have been disappointing, the offense was underwhelming for several games before a strong close to the season, and the clock-management issues and overall handling of late-game situations have sometimes been exasperating, questioned on multiple occasions by game analyst Tim Hasselbeck and others.

At least the regular season ended on a positive note, with a decisive win at Boston College. Having a winning record, with a bowl game remaining, is meaningful.

So how should Cristobal’s first two seasons be viewed?

Two reasonable observers can disagree vehemently about that, as exemplified by this Twitter/X exchange between WPLG 10 sports director Will Manso and his friend Jorge Sedano, an ESPN play-by-play man and a former South Florida broadcaster.

Their back-and-forth over multiple days — following the loss to Louisville and before the win against Boston College — offered an interesting glimpse into the compelling case that both sides can make. (We’ve edited for brevity and added words such as ‘a’ and ‘the’ to make the exchange more readable).

Manso: “The Canes fall to 6-5. They were a kneel-down away from 5-0. This season hasn’t been progress, no matter what anyone says. Getting talent is one very important thing. Putting that talent in the best position to win is pretty important, too. UM has lots of work to do.”

Sedano: “Agree they have work to do. That’s inarguable. But they got destroyed in games last year. Non competitive. They have been in every game this season and are going to a bowl. You guys underestimate the rebuilding down to the studs of the house. The freshman are their best players.

“Louisville brought in a QB that knew the system [because] he played for the coach at Purdue. I had them earlier this season. He taught them the offense and is basically another coach. Plus, their schedule has not been very hard.”

Manso: “Miami’s schedule hasn’t been that tough either… Duke, UNC had some bad losses and scoring 6 at NC State. Point is, time [being] needed to fix a program has changed. Recruiting is a big part of it, but not like before now with the portal. It takes a combo of both and good coaching.”

Sedano: “Duke lost games [because] their likely NFL QB got hurt. UNC is also better than Miami, and NC St has a great D & a tough place to play. This isn’t a weak ACC. CFB in general is incredibly competitive this season and the ACC is no different.”

Manso: “I guess the point is those teams have found ways to navigate through the same issues (injuries, bad officiating, solid opponents) and outperform Miami. At some point we have to stop making UM seem like they’re under a different set of circumstances while getting the same results.”

Sedano: “Maybe [because] they’re a better team than Miami? I know nobody wants to admit that. But UM isn’t some talent factory the last 15 years. Finally have freshmen that look the part. This isn’t a quick fix. Also, people already forgot Mike Norvell had 3 & 5 wins his first 2 seasons at FSU.”

Manso: “What Norvell has done should be commended. Not normal. It’s hard. As far as Miami, you watch those games and think those teams are that much more talented than UM? NC St? Duke? Even Louisville? I’m sorry I don’t agree. Most losses this season weren’t because of the talent gap….

“CFB has changed from those days. I’m not giving up hope Mario can turn this around. But saying hey, ‘we’re losing small’ is one hell of a drop off in the standard at UM. That’s some Cam Cameron sounding BS.

“‘They’re losing closer games’ being the comeback that people give me doesn’t exactly strengthen the case of progress. They also beat Georgia Tech by 3 TDs last year and lost to them this season.

“I don’t measure progress by ‘closer than last year’s losses.’ And it’s okay if you do. But what I do see is a team that’s 2-5 in the last 7 games [before the Boston College win] and those wins were in OT. Last season they finished 3-4 in their last 7. Feels the same to me. Not getting better as the season goes on.

“There is no ‘built to last’ anymore in CFB. The portal changes things every year. You have to build each year to win in that year and then keep guys. Cases every year of programs winning quickly and losing quickly.”

Sedano: “Will, I watch and do games for this conference nearly every week. They are better because their best players are vets. That’s not a small thing in CFB…

“My point on Norvell is you would’ve been even more indignant about UM if they had those results in [Cristobal’s] first two seasons. You need real talent. You also need that talent to have actual experience. That’s why FSU popped. Smart portal additions and great recruiting….

“Look at the bodies of Fletcher, Bain and Francis Mauigoa. We haven’t seen those types of 18-year-old bodies/talent at UM in many years.”

Manso: “They also had the ACC rookie of the year two years ago [Tyler Van Dyke] and how’d that work out? Again we’ll agree to disagree, but it’s amazing to me how this is standard at UM, but cases all over [the] country where new coaches win early.

“Again, we hold UM to some mythical standard of how tough it is to win and build where examples [of quick fixes are] everywhere. But the coach at Louisville goes and gets a vet QB for his system, as you explained, and it’s like poor UM. I think Mario will figure it out, but this was a bad season for him.”

Sedano: “Francis Mauigoa, Mark Fletcher & Rueben Bain are freshmen and look like they can play in the NFL tomorrow. There haven’t been 18 yr olds at UM like that in a very long time.”

Manso: “We all saw it. And I still have belief if we revisit in four years this program will be in better shape with his help. But that’s not the point of anything I said originally. This season was not [a] big step forward. It’ll be remembered for not kneeling and the season falling apart after that.

“Now he needs to learn from his mistakes, find a QB, figure out his staff and win games next season, not lose close ones…

“You wanna kid yourself and say this stuff feels different because they have one more win, then go ahead. And what happened at 4-0? Oh yeah, the ‘not kneeling,’ which derailed the season. 2-5 since then. You can call that progress. I call it a similar disappointment and much falls on the coaching staff.”

Sedano: “Imagine how you would feel about [Southern Cal coach] Lincoln Riley? They paid him $30 million more than Mario and got similar results with the reigning Heisman winner [quarterback Caleb Williams]. But you guys would have jumped at that. On the same day the Georgia Tech game happened, Riley had multiple blunders in succession during the end of regulation vs Arizona. But none of you were awake to watch it…

“This isn’t that hard. They went from a style that didn’t value winning lines of scrimmage to a regime that demands it. You couldn’t go more polar opposite in both schemes and body types of what those schemes demand. The archetype now is what the top teams in the country have. Big, tough, athletic bodies.”

And on and on it went, deep into the night.

Manso, after the BC win, said he was impressed by Cristobal’s tone and honesty in a state-of-the-program interview with WQAM’s Joe Rose and added: “This offseason is huge, but if handled well, they could make a big jump next year.”

So who’s right? In my view, both. I view 7-5 as a disappointment because for all of its talent deficiencies, Cristobal was inheriting a 7-5 team, not an 0-12 team. Moving to nine wins in year two didn’t seem unreasonable.

Sedano makes sound points about the good work that Cristobal has done with the roster. And it’s too soon to come to any grand conclusions about his regime.

The question is when should wins supersede the feeling of ‘progress’ for the UM administration and most of the fan base? Year 3? Year 4?

Sedano, who doesn’t speak for all Cristobal supporters but probably reflects the view of many of them, said:

“Year 3 should be a 9-plus win regular season. Year 4 should be an ACC title. They beat Clemson [who still has one of the best defenses in the country] and were in a game on the road with FSU with a QB who had no business being in those games [Emory Williams]. If the QB play is simply adequate they’ll be just fine moving forward.... Let’s revisit this after four seasons. I saw up close what he did at Oregon. Two PAC 12 titles & a 3rd appearance.”

Cristobal isn’t going anywhere, not with a 10-year, $80 million contract. But barring major injuries to several of their best players, this needs to be a 9 or 10 win team next season for anyone to feel good about the direction of the program.

That’s why Cristobal must emerge from the offseason with something better than merely a functional FBS quarterback and with impact additions at need positions, just as Matt Lee, Javion Cohen and Francisco Mauigoa were this season.

That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it’s a start. And Cristobal’s elite recruiting skills give him a good chance to enter 2024 with a Top 25 caliber roster.