A critical moment for Ukraine in the sky. What is being decided now? - opinion
Russia created an "elite" aviation group for attacks on Ukraine. British intelligence reports that the group will consist of at least one squadron of Su-24 and Su-34 fighter-bombers, as well as attack helicopters. It will differ from typical aviation units that tend only to be outfitted for a single broad goal. Instead, they are moving to mixed units.
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Now, in anticipation of our offensive, all their forces are aimed at striking ground targets. If such units are being formed, they will differ slightly from regular aviation units. The Su-34 is a modern fighter-bomber. Su-24s are old, and we have the same ones. Then there are the helicopter squadrons. All of this is aimed at supporting ground forces - either in defense, or perhaps they will try to organize some attacks somewhere in the Donetsk region. Air superiority will be a secondary concern.
How can this affect the course of the war? Just as the PMC Wagner influenced the course of the war. There were just "meat" attacks, and now there will be that meat, but packed in this can - the canned "meat" will fly.
What will it look like?
Pilots were loaded into planes fueled to go in one direction
Recently, I received documentation on the latest Russian aircraft radio equipment. Su-34s will conduct electronic suppression of our air defense. They will stay far from the front line. Su-24s with reservists on board will do more direct bombing. Our missiles will not have to choose their targets; they will hit everyone. No harm to Russians because the planes are old, and the pilots will not have to receive large pensions. Young people will take too long to train, but there are ready-made fools who can be launched as kamikazes. Just like during the Volkssturm, when the youngest and oldest were taken. It doesn't make sense to give planes to the youngest-they will just crash them before reaching the front. But the oldest can be used instead.
It was the same in Japan. Pilots were loaded into planes fueled to go in one direction, and the chassis was left on the ground for the next kamikaze.
The Russians still have to introduce the old innovations.
Read also: What Does the F-16 Mean For Ukraine? — opinion
If pilots are offered a steering wheel and some family problems...money is always needed. If the amount is enough, then they will stay on the wheel. These are the sorts of people who will be recruited.
We shot down a "Wagnerite," an aviation major general, colonels, and majors. The question of whether they had a sound mind will be answered because you understand: what remains of them is no longer subject to analysis.
Russians have ample opportunities to find pilots. They have not had such catastrophic losses of personnel as the ground forces. Colonels, lieutenant colonels, and majors flew into battle in February and early March. Because of the belief in "victory in three days," they rushed to the opportunity to win medals and log combat flight hours. They flew; they were chased. Then we shot down captains and senior lieutenants. After that, everything returned to its place.
They've now replenished their numbers. They have rotated. They have different units all the time. Those based near Ukraine are always deployed as full regiments. One or two squadrons represent other regiments, with occasional rotations. Remember the MiG-31 in Belarus? Two arrived, and two left. It's the same with squadrons. We periodically hear about non-combat losses in Russian military aviation - something or someone crashes. Previously, they had three or four, maybe five crashes a year, but in 2022, there were ten.
If we get F-16s, two trends will grow. First, someone will try to deflect by damaging the aircraft. And secondly, cases similar to the four downed planes in Belgorod will continue. If F-16s are in the sky, then every Ukrainian plane that takes off will be an F-16 in the minds of the Russians. It is not easy to distinguish between them by sight. Disputes will begin between the air defense, which orders to shoot down everything in the air, and the Air Force, which says that they received the wrong identification signal. Their problems will continue to grow.
In September 2022, the results were summed up as such: every fourth bomber crew and every third assault aircraft crew was shot down, and most pilots either died or were captured. It is not inspiring, nor does it instill confidence.
If an F-16 shoots down a Russian plane that crashes into Russian territory, will there be a problem? Not really. Firstly, we were not there. Secondly, a damaged plane can glide quite far. And thirdly, hitting air targets is fine; we only made promises about ground targets on Russian territory. So the Russian plane on a combat mission to strike Ukraine is an entirely free and clear military target. Our allies will have no objections to this. But if we strike, for example, an airfield in Belgorod or somewhere in the Krasnodar Territory, then they will tell us that they did not agree on this.
This is about overcoming a critical moment. A competition is going on now: whether we run out of missiles and the Russians will dominate our sky, or our allies will supply us with new anti-aircraft missile systems. Russia's dream of dominating our sky will remain a "fruitless delusion."
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If we quickly obtain the F-16, they will allow us to destroy enemy missiles using small-range aviation missiles, and sometimes just onboard guns. This means we will save our old Soviet-made anti-aircraft missile reserves to cover some of the most critical targets. We will not spend them as we do now on every drone, every Shahed, and every missile that flies into our territory. Most of them will be destroyed by a fighter. Meanwhile, the X-101 costs $3 million, while the Sidewinder air-to-air missile fired from the F-16 costs $300 to $400 thousand. We get 100% of two types of medium and short-range missiles for the F-16, whatever the agreements are. We'll get them because these missiles can't strike ground targets. In four months, our pilots have to master radar control, missile firing, and air combat tactics for a new type of aircraft. In four months, they will learn to fly in simple meteorological conditions, even if not in complex meteorological conditions: flying along a route, takeoffs and landings, and some minimal maneuvers.
When we were told about four months, this is what they meant. Advanced aerobatics will not be included in this course. I'm not even talking about some tactical maneuvering, flights in pairs, taking off in teams, taking off in formations, strikes on ground targets, the tactics of air battles, and breakthroughs of air defenses. All this was a separate list. Not everything, but at least some of these need to be mastered. Training must include aviation technical personnel - 10 ground personnel per aircraft, plus combat control officers. All pilots must also know English perfectly, including slang. I hope they will master this level, but it will also take some time. We have a critical moment of days - not months.
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