Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions: Who do NFL experts pick to win playoff game?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have a losing record, but they've also got two things the Dallas Cowboys wish they had: Tom Brady and home-field advantage.
The 8-9 Bucs are the fourth team since 2010 to make the playoffs with more wins than losses. Two of those teams — the 2010 Seahawks and the 2014 Panthers — won their home game in the wild-card round. The other — the 2020 Washington Football Team — lost a close game to Brady and the Bucs, the first win in Tampa's run to the Super Bowl.
Brady has passed for 4,694 yards this season, good for third in the NFL, but the 45-year-old had to throw a league-high 733 passes to get there. He's still got a strong complement of receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin with Leonard Fournette and rookie Rachaad White at running back.
But that's nothing compared to the weapons at Dak Prescott's disposal on the other side. With Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield and Ceedee Lamb, the recently added T.Y. Hilton and tight end Dalton Schultz running routes, Dallas (12-5) has plenty of ways to attack the Bucs defense. However, Prescott has thrown 11 interceptions over the past seven games, and the Cowboys have not won on the road in the postseason since 1993.
These two teams met in the season opener, when Brady and Evans hooked up for the only touchdown in a 19-3 win.
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Who will advance to the NFC divisional playoffs? NFL reporters and analysts weigh in with their picks:
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Buccaneers 24-20
The Cowboys have marched sloppily into the playoffs with Dak Prescott continuing his interception streak. They have become dependent on playing on a lead so they can get their running game rolling and tee off with their pass rush. They have the capacity to pour it on and run away, but close games aren't their strength.
The Buccaneers will work to stay in it early with their run defense and some key third-down stops. They also had great success running on Dallas in the Week 1 meeting and Tom Brady has been sharper with the downfield passing game of late with more help with his receivers. Mike McCarthy's team is headed for more early playoff disappoint against a sub-.500 team, albeit one with the GOAT at quarterback.
John Breech, CBS Sports: Buccaneers 20-17
On paper, this game feels like a mismatch, but Tom Brady doesn't believe in paper so I'm going to ignore the talent disparity and just go with the team that I trust more right now and that's the Buccaneers.
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Buccaneers 19-16
Tom Brady has 47 career playoff games. This one will be number 48. Win or lose, it’s quite possibly his last game in Tampa. The Cowboys, meanwhile, look like they peaked too soon. Why are they favored?
Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Cowboys 34-28
Not surprisingly, no quarterback has more playoff victories (35), touchdowns (85) or passing yards (12,720) than Tom Brady. In fact, no quarterback is even close. But, after what everyone has seen this season, this version of Brady is not the same as that one. It would be easy to say never count out any team with Brady at quarterback in the postseason. But it might be easier to point out the Cowboys have lost 10 of their past 13 playoff games, including four of their past five.
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Cowboys 21-20
This game is about the Cowboys. They are the up-and-down team that has shown a top-five scoring offense and defense, rarely at the same time. The Bucs have shown neither, a remarkably consistent defense that makes the opposition work and a Tom Brady offense that relies on short passing and converting on third-and-3. They haven't played well for more than a quarter at a time all season; why start now?
I'm not worried about Dak Prescott's meltdown in Week 18 and the Cowboys' odd effort in that game. I am worried about the Cowboys defense springing leaks at cornerback, linebacker and defensive tackle. Will Dan Quinn be confident enough in his personnel to mix up the Cowboys' looks snap-to-snap? Will Brady give Micah Parsons a chance to get the passer? I'm taking the Cowboys because their average game is better than the Bucs', but there's also only one team here with championship experience. I don't feel good about picking either team.
Bill Bender, Sporting News: Cowboys 28-24
Tom Brady got the Buccaneers to the playoffs, albeit with a 8-9 record. Both of these offenses struggled down the stretch, and Dallas averaged just 75 rushing yards the last two weeks. Tampa Bay has been hit or miss against the run, and the offense has been hit or miss most of the season. The Buccaneers have scored more than 23 points only one time in the last eight games. There is more pressure on the Cowboys here, and there is always the chance for a vintage Brady performance. Unless Dak Prescott implodes with turnovers, Dallas will advance to the divisional round.
Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Cowboys 20-16
The Cowboys’ performance in Week 18 didn’t inspire a lot of confidence, but I expect them to play well enough to beat a Buccaneers team that didn’t inspire a lot of confidence all season.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Cowboys 27-21
The Cowboys looked awful in losing their finale to the Commanders, but really what were they playing for with the Giants resting players against the Eagles? Nothing. So erase that game, even if Dak Prescott looked bad. The Bucs got into the playoffs with a losing record, and they have issues. It's easy to sit here and say Tom Brady will turn it on in the playoffs. But I don't see it. Not against that Cowboys front. Prescott will play better for the Dallas offense to get them into the next round.
Jovan Alford, Sporting News: Buccaneers 24-20
It's hard to know what to expect in this game with Dak Prescott struggling and the Buccaneers seemingly underachieving all season. However, we like Tampa Bay to get the win in prime time. It will likely come down to the fourth quarter, which is Tom Brady time. Brady is battle-tested and knows what it takes to will his team to a win. Prescott hasn't played great lately, and it is hard to see him flipping a switch on the road. Take Tampa Bay and the points.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Bucs vs. Cowboys predictions: NFL experts pick NFC playoff game
