Dan Wiederer: How Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles will navigate the NFL combine to get the most out of the No. 1 pick

The hotel lobbies in downtown Indianapolis are filling up quickly and the corridors inside the Indianapolis Convention Center are beginning to bustle. This, Chicago Bears fans, is where the magic is happening this week. In central Indiana, off Exit 114 of Interstate 65. Inside the beehive at the NFL scouting combine.

It’s all beginning to swirl like the strong late-winter winds — the curiosity and chatter, the rumors and realities.

In these lobbies. In these corridors. At restaurants. At bars.

Inside Lucas Oil Stadium. At the train station adjacent to the Crowne Plaza. Near the Starbucks off the second-floor escalator at the JW Marriott.

As the kids on social media like to say, #iykyk.

This could become a landmark week for Bears general manager Ryan Poles, crowned in Chicago as the unofficial emcee of the 2023 NFL offseason. Poles pulled into Indianapolis with, to put it bluntly, the goods. Namely, he has the No. 1 draft pick plus an elevated credit line — nearly $100 million in salary-cap space — to take into free agency in two weeks.

It’s an exciting time for the 37-year-old GM, who has a last-place roster to overhaul, a promising young quarterback to support and an abundance of resources to help him chase his grandest offseason goals.

Over the next six days, Poles will have to rely on his eyes and, perhaps more important, his ears to help set the franchise’s direction. He is now on the clock and also on his toes.

So, about that No. 1 pick …

That’s the question Poles should be ready for and eager to entertain from his brethren in the GM fraternity. Because it will be coming from many directions, most likely from quarterback-needy teams considering a climb to the top of the draft board to nab their guy.

Think Houston Texans GM Nick Caserio. Or the Indianapolis Colts’ Chris Ballard — with the nudging, perhaps, of owner Jim Irsay. Think Scott Fitterer of the Carolina Panthers or maybe even Dave Ziegler of the Las Vegas Raiders or Mickey Loomis of the New Orleans Saints.

The consensus short list of quarterbacks possibly worthy of the top pick: Alabama’s Bryce Young, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. Florida’s Anthony Richardson isn’t far behind.

A lot of things will begin coming into focus this week. As one league executive not in the hunt for the top pick said: “Things are going to start revealing themselves. That chatter about the No. 1 selection is already beginning. Ryan is in a great spot. Now? Just be patient. That’s all he needs to do. Be patient. Teams need quarterbacks. And teams will almost certainly fall in love with one of these guys.

“If you’re the Bears, you just hope one of these prospects is legitimately worthy of being the No. 1 pick and that you have multiple teams hungry enough to move up there.”

This week will serve in part as a test of Poles’ ability to be a slick and effective auctioneer.

We have one future first-round pick on the table. Do I hear two? Do I hear two? Do I hear a couple of second-round selections mixed in?

Trade winds

This is the Bears’ big chance, Poles’ opportunity to use the much-celebrated consolation prize of a 3-14 season to assemble a gift basket of draft selections he then could turn into building blocks of a championship team. Those efforts will intensify here during a demanding and eventful combine week.

Until further notice, Poles should view every trade-back scenario as intriguing. Even the hint of a proposal within casual conversation should catch his ear. Privately, the Bears should be hoping one quarterback at the top of this draft class separates from the others.

The popular opinion in league circles is that Young — with an impressive combination of arm strength, instincts and playmaking proficiency — has the best chance to do so, even with well-documented concerns about his stature.

It would benefit the Bears if Young emerged from the pre-draft process as the clear-cut top dog at the sport’s most important position. That would create leverage that wouldn’t exist if the quarterbacks at the top of the board were lumped together in many teams’ eyes.

Consider the Texans, for example, who would have little incentive to spend valuable draft capital to trade up from No. 2 if they value multiple quarterbacks similarly — or if Caserio decides to delay his big quarterback dice roll until 2024.

Poles also will have to remain conscious of how far he’s willing to trade back, still hoping to leave the first round with a headliner in this year’s draft class who hopefully could be Sharpied into the Bears depth chart as a difference-making starter for the rest of the decade.

Said one league GM: “You start simple: What’s your No. 1 need? And if there’s a potential game-changing prospect right there at the top of this class at that position, you might not want to go too far down.”

That may be as important as anything in the Bears rebuilding efforts, the need to bring true standouts into the mix. Therefore an awareness of the talent drop-off points in this year’s draft will be vital.

But many around the league see this as a wide-open draft, not top-heavy by any means and with a ton of perceived value on Day 2. That should offer the Bears a longer leash to trade down if so desired and perhaps even a push to target Day 2 selections in trade negotiations.

“Get as much draft capital as you possibly can,” the GM said. “This feels like a year where you can get a group of really good players on Day 2 and early into Day 3. So get as many of those guys as you can.”

There’s also a growing buzz in league circles that the Bears — with Poles stressing his aim to remain disciplined with a long view of the team’s contention timeline — may be inclined to stockpile draft picks for 2024 without feeling driven to receive an immediate return on a trade of this year’s No. 1 pick.

NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah sees the Colts as the likeliest trade partner. To swap spots with the Colts at No. 4, Jeremiah suggests the Bears also might have to give up a 2024 fourth-round pick while netting the No. 35 pick this year plus first- and second-round selections in 2024.

But it’s the Panthers at No. 9 that Jeremiah believes would be the ideal team for the Bears to bargain with.

A drop from No. 1 to No. 9, Jeremiah estimates, could produce a deal in which the Bears get the Nos. 9 and 39 selections this year plus first-rounders in both 2024 and 2025.

“If you ask me what I would do, I would be hoping the Carolina Panthers want to pay that price,” Jeremiah said. “I’ll go down to 9 and I’ll take all those first-round picks. Now let’s go try and fill some of these needs.”

When is it all going down?

For those contemplating possible timelines for the Bears to deal away the No. 1 pick, it’s worth noting that over the past 10 years, there have been five trades engineered by teams climbing inside the top five to select a quarterback.

The earliest came on March 17 five years ago, when the New York Jets vaulted from No. 6 to No. 3, trading the Colts a trio of second-round picks for the opportunity to grab USC’s Sam Darnold.

Two years ago, the San Francisco 49ers made their big move on March 26, a nine-step climb from No. 12 to No. 3 that cost a third-round pick plus two future first-rounders. At the time, no one knew for certain which quarterback 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch had fallen hard for. It turned out to be Trey Lance, whom the 49ers selected after Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson came off the board. The Bears landed Justin Fields with their own trade up eight picks later.

In 2017, of course, the Bears waited until the first round began before they infamously became anxious and traded up from No. 3 to No. 2 to select Mitch Trubisky. The 49ers benefited from Ryan Pace’s eagerness that night, netting three extra selections in the deal.

File all that away with an understanding that Poles’ hard-and-fast deadline for making a franchise-changing trade won’t come until right around 7 p.m. on April 27. But starting this week, he should remain proactive in stimulating a market for that No. 1 pick.

Keeping an open mind

With significant internal belief in the long-term potential of Fields, the Bears likely aren’t in the market for a new QB1. But there’s also little harm in browsing.

That means Poles, his talent evaluation staff and a handful of Bears coaches will dial in on the quarterbacks at the top of this class — Young, Levis, Stroud and Richardson — this week and over the next couple of months.

Poles stressed in January that he wouldn’t veer from Fields unless he was “absolutely blown away” — either by a quarterback prospect in this class or by a head-spinning trade offer for Fields.

Still, it’s OK for the Bears to be open-minded to the possibility of being blown away during the vetting process of this year’s top quarterbacks. It’s also obligatory that Poles remain determined to squeeze the most out of the No. 1 pick, whatever that looks like.

That’s a mission Poles is fully aware of and ready to take on. The action intensifies this week.