Danger in trading star players

As the Vikings look to move forward, there will be numerous questions about the roster. There are multiple stars on both sides of the ball that are creeping up in age and are paid large percentages of the cap. With a team like the Vikings that is in flux, you can go in a myriad of directions.

When you start to consider trading star players, a lot of things need to be considered, mainly what the return is for those players. If they are older, it is much easier to justify moving on without worrying about whether the capital you receive will be worth the star you are giving up. In this piece, I will be taking a look at trading star players and the danger in doing so.

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Success stories in trading away stars

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The Vikings have a long history of major trades. Within those big trades, they have been involved in two where the sellers got a return that ended up being fair compensation. Before we discuss those trades, It’s important to know what I’m constituting as a fair return.

A fair return is not only getting the proper amount of capital back for the star player, but it’s also how you use said capital. That statement is where the real conversation begins.

The Vikings came out looking great with the Stefon Diggs trade just two offseasons ago. They traded the disgruntled star receiver Diggs to the Buffalo Bills for first, fifth and sixth-round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft and a fourth round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. They were able to take those picks and find an All-Pro receiver in Justin Jefferson and likely the starting strong safety in Cam Bynum with the fourth round selection. Hitting on the picks that you receive is incredibly important because you need to replace the star player that you are trading away.

The other success story had the Vikings on the opposite side. The infamous Herschel Walker trade was made with a lot of conditions in it. The Vikings traded five players to the Cowboys, all with picks that wouldn’t be obtained if they had kept them. Because Jimmie Johnson was only interested in the picks, it was why he claimed he committed “The Great Train Robbery,” and it built the foundation of three Super Bowl championships. Those picks ended up turning into future Hall Of Famers Emmitt Smith and Russell Maryland, along with Darren Woodson, Kevin Smith and Alonso Highsmith. Hitting on the picks you get from trading away a star player can build a championship roster, but that’s the key: you have to hit.

Failures in maximizing draft capital

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Over the past few seasons, we have seen a few mega trades where the team trading away a star player has come out on the losing end. The reason they came out behind is more so due to the draft capital not turning into talent. There are two trades that come to mind where we saw two teams trade mega stars on defense where they failed to turn the capital into great assets. The Raiders traded Khalil Mack to the Bears, and the Jaguars traded Jalen Ramsey to the Rams.

The Bears acquired:

-Khalil Mack
-2020 second round pick (Cole Kmet)
-2020 conditional seventh round pick (Arlington Hambright).

The Raiders acquired:

-2019 first round pick (Josh Jacobs)
-2019 sixth round pick (traded)
-2020 first round pick (Damon Arnette)
-2020 third round pick (Bryan Edwards)

The Raiders got an average starting running back and receiver while also being forced to cut their first-round cornerback in Arnette. The Bears got an all-pro EDGE rusher that completely changed their defense and nearly propelled them to a long playoff run. This is the prime example of failing to take advantage of your draft capital. The Jaguars in the next example don’t fare a whole lot better.

The Rams acquired

-Jalen Ramsey

The Jaguars acquired

-2020 first round pick (K’Lavonn Chaisson)
-2021 first round pick (Travis Etienne)
-2021 fourth round pick (Jordan Smith)

This is a little less certain with how the Jaguars will fare long term, but Chaisson hasn’t been the most impressive and Etienne hasn’t played a down due to a foot injury that kept him out during his entire rookie season.

The biggest danger in these trades is setting your team back upwards of a few years, as the Raiders would likely be contending for AFC West titles instead of fighting for a wild card berth. The Jaguars might still be in a state of poverty due to their management issues, but they would have arguably the best cornerback in the game on their roster as a building block.

What would Danielle Hunter bring back?

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Danielle Hunter is arguably a top-five pass rusher in football. While he is entering his seventh season in the NFL, Hunter is only 27 years old and just entered the prime of his career. Moving on from a player of that caliber is not a decision that can be made easily, nor taken lightly.

As I discussed above, it’s all about capitalizing on the return. Over the last five years, we have seen an increasing number of star players get traded for large returns. The Bears trading for Mack and the Rams trading for Ramsey have been big hits for the team acquiring star players, and the jury is still out on the trades of Jamal Adams, Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford. The only trade in recent memory where both teams arguably won was the Diggs trade to Buffalo.

If the Vikings do decide to move on from Hunter, what kind of capital could be coming back for him? It would be something similar to the trades we’ve seen above with at least a first-round pick coming to the Vikings. The one caveat that we don’t know at this point is how teams will view Hunter’s health history. He will be two years removed from major neck surgery and one year removed from a torn pectoral muscle when he suits up Week 1 of 2022. When looking at potential trade partners, two things must be considered: need and capital. One team stands out in that aspect and that is the New York Jets.

Reports have already circulated that they are open to moving the 10th overall pick and have had a major need at edge rusher since the departure of John Abraham over ten years ago. What could a package for Hunter look like?

Jets send

-10th overall pick
-35th overall pick
-Conditional 2023 third round pick (moves to a 2nd with 12+ sacks)

Vikings send

-Danielle Hunter
-2023 fifth round pick

I believe Hunter is worth multiple first round picks, but I have my doubts that he will get that kind of return due to his recent injury luck. With that return, what could the Vikings’ first four selections look like?

-10: Purdue EDGE George Karlaftis
-12: Cincinnati CB Sauce Gardner
-35: Nevada QB Carson Strong
-46: Oklahoma DT Perrion Winfrey

This haul would give the Vikings a QB of the future, a talented EDGE rusher to groom, a stud cornerback and a disruptive three-technique tackle to put next to either Michael Pierce or Dalvin Tomlinson. Regardless of who the Vikings end up selecting, they need to hit on the selections received from whoever acquires Hunter.

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