New data about Sacramento voting trends in the March election are deeply troubling | Opinion
It appears that only a small sliver of Sacramento is poised to shape the direction of the city by bothering to vote by March 5. One of the most wide-open races for mayor hasn’t yet engaged voters in this election, and that is beyond troubling.
The bipartisan voting data firm Political Data, Inc. (PDI) has selected the city of Sacramento as one of California’s political places to watch by following mailed-in ballot activity in the city. Precinct by precinct, PDI is merging votes tallied with known demographic information about those voting.
The findings are both fascinating and sobering.
Opinion
Out of more than 270,000 ballots mailed to voters at the beginning of February, only 9% had been returned by Tuesday. That conforms with an earlier prediction by PDI Vice President Paul Mitchell that California was on path to the lowest voter turnout in primary history.
With less than a week before election day, the only Sacramentans who seem to care are those on Medicare. About 21% of voters 65 or older had returned their ballots, and an abysmal 3% percent of voters under 35 had bothered to vote by the beginning of the week. That disparity is astonishing.
Meanwhile, about 10% of Democrats had voted by the beginning of the week, compared to 12% of Republicans.
Latino votes this election cycle continues a years-long trend of low participation. Comprising nearly 20% of all registered voters, Latino ballots represent only 13% of those mailed in so far. The participation of Black voters is also lower than average so far this election.
As for those who are voting, they are older, whiter and perhaps richer.
One indication of the wealth factor is a voting precinct (340042605) in the heart of East Sacramento’s “Fab Forties” neighborhood. Here lives a relative hotbed of political activity, as nearly 22% had voted by Tuesday. The neighborhood is in City Council District 4, where incumbent Councilwoman Katie Valenzuela and challenger Phil Pluckebaum are waging spirited campaigns.
There are four prominent candidates in the race for mayor: Epidemiologist Flojaune Cofer, former State Sen. Richard Pan, current Assemblyman Kevin McCarty and former City Councilman Steve Hansen. The low March turnout will determine the candidates left standing for the November runoff.
Come March 6, we’ll have a better sense of how Sacramento voted, but we know in similar detail why Sacramentans chose not to vote.
It’s not hard to guess why.
The presidential primary is a foregone conclusion in California. For so many of us, this is an uninspiring choice.
Moving the presidential primary up to March instead of June has failed to give the state any greater voice in the nation’s nomination process. It has also damaged democracy along the way: With ballots arriving in the mail in early February, Sacramentans have had precious little time to study up on the candidates. The March election is the political version of speed dating.
Too many of us care too little about our future to vote. Our disinterest in governance is a growing threat to our democracy. And it’s even more threatening when our youngest voters leave their futures to their parents and grandparents.
There are so many reasons to vote. In Sacramento, we have a pivotal race for mayor and the hotly contested District 4 council race. Regionally, some key state legislative seats are up for grabs. Statewide, the future of the state’s mental health system hangs in the balance with the outcome of Proposition 1.
Our votes directly shape the future of Sacramento. There is still time for your voice to be heard.
