Data shows voters who disapprove of Trump are likely to support any Democratic opponent — even if they don't like them either
The Democratic Party looks like it might get a boost from voters who disapprove of President Trump, even if they don't love the eventual Democratic nominee either, The Economist's G. Elliot Morris writes.
Morris notes that one of the dominant narratives in 2016 was that the election was swung by voters who disliked both Trump and his competitor Hillary Clinton but who wound up begrudgingly siding with Trump when all was said and done. Now, though, it looks like the reverse might happen, regardless of who gets the nod to challenge Trump.
For example, Economist/YouGov polls over the last month have shown that candidates who don't approve of Trump or Democratic frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden would vote for Biden by a 60-point margin, while the numbers for other top contenders like Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are similar.
Suggests that the narrative that people who disapprove of Trump might vote for him anyway is kinda BS. Indeed, only 2% of them say they'll vote for Trump next year (vs 4% of approvers who say they'll vote Dem). The real Q is whether disapprovers will vote 3rd party or stay home.
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) December 28, 2019
For voters who seem to think the 2020 election is shaping up to be a "lesser of two evils" showdown, it looks like — as of right now, at least — they'd prefer a new face in the White House.
Trump disapprovers are mostly going to vote for whoever isn't Trump, & the marginal differences by candidate (we're talking .5-1% on vote share) are pretty darn small and impossible to disentangle from other socio-political factors (ie racial conservatism, immigration attitudes).
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) December 28, 2019
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