David Carr: In Super matchup, Chiefs might have the answers — and the X-factor

There are a lot of angles in this Super Bowl matchup between the 49ers and Chiefs. Schematically, it’s interesting on both sides of the ball and for both offenses and defenses.

But the one thing that we know we’re going to get from the 49ers is their run game and then play-action off of it because that’s what makes that offense go. They rely on it more than any offense in the league.

The 49ers will need to establish that run game, and coach Kyle Shanahan is as creative as anyone with how he designs runs. He gives his guys advantages with leverage to where they don’t necessarily have to beat their guy every time. They have to make sure they use the proper technique, and if the 49ers get that they’re going to be in position to have some big runs.

They’ve consistently found ways to run the football against loaded boxes and have some pieces in play that can cause some issues.

A defense has to know where George Kittle is, it has to know where Kyle Juszczyk is, it has to know where Emmanuel Sanders is.

They all present different problems for a defense.

Shanahan will show a traditional play-action pass concept that a defense will have seen from the 49ers on film 100 times, but then there’s always a little wrinkle in there. That wrinkle is usually one of those three or four players who are involved in the pass concept. The 49ers will make everything look exactly the same, and then they’ll have a double move off it or they’ll have the complete opposite route off of it and it will throw the defense.

But the Chiefs could have answers, and the X-factor.

Kansas City has struggled a bit against teams that can run the football — the Chiefs had that stretch toward the middle of the season where teams had some success rushing it at them and they lost four of six games.

But I think with Chris Jones back on the defensive line that solidifies things up front, and schematically Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been in this situation before.

He has been in the big game. He has won the big game with the Giants. He knows how to devise a plan, even with limited ability.

I don’t think the Chiefs defense is near what San Francisco’s defense is, but schematically Spagnuolo can do things to shut down a run game a little bit and play good coverage in the back end.

Tyrann Mathieu is his wild card. Spagnuolo can utilize him in a lot of ways down in the box or covering a guy like Kittle.

I think Spagnuolo will have a good plan. I don’t think that’s going to be a weakness at all, so it will come down to making plays.

Jimmy Garoppolo has made some clutch throws on third downs and he has made some big throws in the fourth quarter when he has needed to — he did it against the Saints and the Rams.

But the problem is the 49ers haven’t asked him to do it a lot. He threw the ball eight times last week against Green Bay while running back Raheem Mostert was churning out 220 yards and four touchdowns on 29 plays.

With the Chiefs, if their run game gets stuffed two plays in a row and it’s third-and-10, Patrick Mahomes will make a big throw and get a first down.

I don’t know that San Francisco has that explosive ability as much as Kansas City, and Mahomes also has that X-factor in play.

The thing I always go back to is the speed of the Chiefs. San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has said the same thing. He said it looks like they took an Olympic 4 x 100 meter relay team and put them in pads. It’s hard to defend that.

They’ve got Travis Kelce and as big as he is, he can run. They’ve got Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman. They have Sammy Watkins and to say he’s their fourth weapon on offense, that’s staggering.

That speed is hard to prepare for and with what Mahomes can do in those situations where he takes a drop and keeps shuffling back and still makes big throws 30 yards downfield and on the money, I don’t know how any team can defend that consistently.

They’re trying to score on every play. They don’t throw the football for 4 yards; they’re looking for big plays.

But San Francisco will know all of their concepts. The 49ers have that pass rush with Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner.

Green Bay had a hard time with that pass rush — a lot of teams do. If you’re playing a team like the 49ers and think the quarterback is just going to be able stand there and let routes develop … I don’t know if that’s the best way to go about it.

They’ll have a plan and they’ll be dialed in.

The two best teams made it and that’s a good thing because sometimes, we don’t get that. A team will get hot at the right time and find itself in the Super Bowl, but then it runs out of steam, gets blown out and everyone just starts looking for the commercials and the halftime show.

Not this time, though. I think this will be a great game.

David Carr is a former Fresno State quarterback, NFL No. 1 draft pick and Super Bowl champion. Now he’s an analyst for the NFL Network and writing a weekly column in collaboration with The Bee’s Robert Kuwada. The column is sponsored by Valley Children’s Hospital.