Odds to win Daytona 500: From Kyle Larson to Travis Pastrana to Conor Daly, pick a winner

Austin Cindric last year and Michael McDowell the year before. Two Daytona 500 champs few people saw coming.

If you follow NASCAR, you don’t need these examples, but for the casual fan, occasional reminders are needed to reinforce the notion that anyone — as in ANYONE — can win Sunday’s Daytona 500.

Daytona and its sister track Talladega, where horsepower is throttled in the name of safety, the fields are equalized and, in many ways, this becomes the Right Place/Right Time 500.

Yes, some racers have the big-race experience as well as the marquee-team advantages, and therefore park toward the north side of the odds board. But it’s a tenuous parking spot, with a rude uprooting just one flinch away.

So all we offer here are educated hunches, but more importantly, let’s try to point you toward a potentially solid payday.

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The favorites: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott among the favorites; we're avoiding them

Kyle Larson +1000, Ryan Blaney +1200, Joey Logano +1200, Chase Elliott +1200, Denny Hamlin +1300, William Byron +1400, Kyle Busch +1400

Welcome to the Heartbreak Hotel. This is where easy money goes to die.

Denny Hamlin has won three Daytona 500s, Joey Logano has won one, and everyone else listed here has either won at Daytona or Talladega.

Except the guy at the top, Kyle Larson. Might want to avoid him, and this is a very rare week when you’ll read those words.

Give me this group and you take the rest of the field, and I’m OK with my chances. But you see enough of Daytona and you know this is likely a fool’s errand. There are bigger potential payoffs below. Let’s snoop around.

Near favorites: You gotta like this group, especially Bubba Wallace at 18-to-1

Ross Chastain +1600, Bubba Wallace +1800, Brad Keselowski +1800, Tyler Reddick +2000 Austin Cindric +2000, Alex Bowman +2000

The defending champ has improved from his prerace spot in the mid-pack to the upper third this year. The man he beat by inches last year — Bubba Wallace — is sitting here and definitely should be. Even before Bubba stepped into fancier equipment, he was a constant threat at Daytona/Talladega.

You like those odds of between 16- and 20-to-1 with everyone in this group.

My goodness, Kevin Harvick at +2500?

Kevin Harvick +2500, Christopher Bell +2500, Aric Almirola +2500, Ryan Preece +3000, Ricky Stenhouse +3000, Martin Truex Jr. +3000, Daniel Suarez +3000, Chris Buescher +3000, Chase Briscoe +3000, Austin Dillon +3000

In the words of the late, great Jerry Reed, “Lord, Mr. Ford!”

At first blush, you wonder how Kevin Harvick landed down here among the mid-pack of favorites. The guy has two Daytona wins, including the 2007 Daytona 500. He’s also won at Talladega.

But some more digging tells you those two wins came in 87 career starts. Not a great percentage. So, hell, maybe he belongs at 25-to-1. But remember, this is his last go-round in the 500, so maybe he’ll try to thread a late-race needle he might otherwise skip.

Gotta like Austin Dillon at this payout, too.

That 0-for-71 record at plate-races suggests you look beyond Truex.

More potential bargains at +3500, including Michael McDowell; Jimmie Johnson makes the board, but Justin Haley at #4000 raises an eyebrow

Michael McDowell +3500, Erik Jones +3500, Justin Haley +4000, Jimmie Johnson +4000, Ty Gibbs +5000, Noah Gragson +5000, Harrison Burton +5000, AJ Allmendinger +5000

Maybe you wouldn’t put $100 on McDowell to hopefully catch lightning again in order to win $3,500, but a sawbuck for a shot at $350? Why the hell not?

Same goes for Jimmie, by the way. He's not exactly driving a team of mules, you know.

But the real sleeper here is Justin Haley. Yes, his one Cup win came at Daytona but it was a rainy-day fluke. Hang your hat on his Xfinity record at Daytona and Talladega — all four of his series wins have come at the two superspeedways.

Kick the tires on Corey LaJoie and Todd Gilliland

Zane Smith +10000, Todd Gilliland +10000, Corey LaJoie +10000, Travis Pastrana +10000, Ty Dillon +15000, Riley Herbst +15000

LaJoie knows how to sniff his way to the lead pack, and don't turn your back on Gilliland. Remember, he was battling for the lead on the last lap of Thursday's second Duel before getting bounced to seventh. Almost literally, but he made the night's best save.

Those two are the best opportunities in this pack, and frankly, given the payoff, there are far worse places to toss your spare change. If you find a place taking top-10 and/or top-5 picks, you might want to consider Ty Dillon.

Just kidding . . . you should definitely consider Ty Dillon.

Conor Daly among the longest of long shots

Cody Ware +50000, B.J. McLeod +50000, Conor Daly +50000

Remember a few minutes back when you were told anyone entered could win the Daytona 500?

Well, that’s still true, but a whole lot has to go right — and for a long time Sunday — for anyone at this end of the board to get an unimpeded peak at the checkers.

Quick, someone do some digging and find the odds of a 37-car pileup in front of this trio.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Daytona 500 odds: NASCAR picks from Ryan Blaney to Travis Pastrana