After deadly Kabul bombing, another ISIS-K terror attack deemed likely in Afghanistan

WASHINGTON – Specific, credible terrorist threats from ISIS-K to U.S. troops and civilians fleeing Afghanistan continued Friday after Thursday's devastating Kabul airport attack, which killed 13 American service members and dozens of Afghans, according to the Pentagon.

Senior Pentagon officials have indicated more suicide attacks, by individuals with explosives strapped to their bodies or bomb-laden vehicles, are among their primary concerns.

But ISIS-Khorasan aspires to more than suicide attacks, according to a former senior military intelligence official familiar with the group. Downing an aircraft filled with troops or evacuees is the type of horrific, spectacular attack they aspire to, said retired Army Maj. Gen. Mark Quantock, who oversaw military intelligence for U.S. Central Command.

"They represent an extreme threat to our evacuation mission," Quantock said.

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Marine Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the head of Central Command, which oversees operations in Afghanistan, said intelligence indicates "extremely active threat strains, against the airfield."

McKenzie and Quantock assessed ISIS-K's most likely attacks.

Suicide bombs

Thursday's horrific attack started with a suicide bomber detonating explosives amid a crowd of Afghans at the airport's Abbey Gate and the U.S. troops searching them before they enter the airfield. More ISIS-K terrorists followed with gunfire, Army Maj. Gen. William Taylor, the director of regional operations for the Joint Staff, said Friday. The military refers to multiple enemies using different weapons as a "complex attack," a hallmark of ISIS-K and other terror groups. In such attacks, terrorists seek to kill as many as possible by the explosion and gunning down those responding or fleeing.

"We also know they aim to get a ... vehicle-borne suicide attack in if they can," McKenzie said. "From a small vehicle to a large vehicle, they're working all those options. Then we have just seen their ability to deliver a walk-in. A vest-wearing suicide, a suicide attacker."

Quantock estimated ISIS-K's strength at no more than a few thousand fighters. They are drawn from disaffected al-Qaida and Taliban members who believe their leaders are insufficiently militant or that they have made accommodations with the United States and Western nations, he said. They are seasoned fighters.

"Their proficiency comes from years of fighting before joining ISIS-K," Quantock said. "They likely have a stable of suicide bombers ready to go. ISIS-K has intent and capability – a lethal combination."

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Rocket and mortar attacks

Hamid Karzai International Airport represents a tiny island of U.S.-military secured land in a teeming, chaotic city. About 5,000 evacuees, and a similar number of American troops, were on the airfield Friday along with cargo jets and planes. Rockets or mortars fired by ISIS-K or other militants could cause widespread casualties, damage aircraft and harm the airport's single landing strip.

The Taliban have taken responsibility for securing Kabul and the rest of Afghanistan. They would form the first line of defense against a team setting up a rocket launcher. The military does have a variety of spy planes overhead to monitor suspicious activity, McKenzie said. Those include MQ-9 Reaper drones, which provide surveillance and can unleash Hellfire missiles on targets.

On the airfield, there are systems to repel rocket attacks, he said.

"We know that they would like to lob a rocket in there, if they could," McKenzie said. "Now we actually have pretty good protection against that. We have our anti-rocket and mortar system, the gun systems...that are pretty effective against these kinds of attacks. We have them well-positioned around the boundary of the airfield. We will be in good shape should that kind of attack occur."

Anti-aircraft fire

McKenzie indicated terrorists have fired at U.S. military aircraft without affecting them, attacks he said were expected to continue.

"The safety of our aircraft coming in and out is of paramount importance," he said. "Because obviously you have the opportunity there to – for 450 or more people to die if you have a significant mishap with the aircraft. We know that ISIS would like to get after those aircraft if they can."

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Military aircraft have self-defense systems, he said. Those include setting off flares that can redirect heat-seeking missiles. More vulnerable are the charter aircraft and commercial planes that lack such defenses, he said.

Quantock echoed McKenzie's concern about attacks on evacuation flights.

"My concern would be surface-to-air missiles," Quantock said, adding that he had no knowledge that ISIS-K possesses the sort of portable weapons that can bring down a plane. Quantock also expressed concern about large-caliber automatic weapons being fired at planes on landing and takeoff.

The only thing that seems certain now is that Thursday's attack will embolden ISIS-K terrorists to try again.

President Joe Biden was told Friday that “another terror attack in Kabul is likely, but that they are taking maximum force protection measures at the Kabul Airport,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement.

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Other targets possible

Douglas London, a former top CIA counterterrorism chief for Afghanistan and Pakistan, said he feared that ISIS-K could launch more attacks against soft targets such as hospitals and schools, as it has in the past. “IS-KP has very effective and resilient cells in Kabul that have been very active in 2021,” said London, using the U.S. spy agency’s term for the Islamic State’s Khorasan Province offshoot.

Ali Chishti, a Pakistani counterterrorism expert who just returned from Kabul, said he has confirmed local reports there that the Taliban killed as many ISIS-K members as possible during recent jail breaks in different parts of Afghanistan.

“The instructions came right from the top, as Talibs think ISIS-K would be their greatest threat,” said Chisti, who has been monitoring ISIS-K since it launched in Pakistan about five years ago. He said the attack on Kabul's airport could have been directed as much at the Taliban as U.S. forces, and predicted more bloody and imminent ISIS-K attacks against both.

“Desperate times,” Chisti told USA Today. “As for ISIS-K, the more desperate they get, they would come up with different forms of terrorism, whereas suicide bombing and mass shootings would be the tool [used] inside Afghanistan and in Pakistan.”

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: ISIS-K: another terror attack deemed likely in Afghanistan