Deadly wildfires in the Smokies have left scars. Here's why people are in harm's way

The deadly wildfires that devastated Great Smoky Mountains communities in recent years were traumatic, economically disastrous events for families and business owners.

The November 2016 Chimney Tops blaze burned 15 square mile and killed 14 people in Gatlinburg. The March 2022 Wears Valley fire burned about 3,500 acres and wreaked financial havoc as homes and businesses were destroyed.

The conditions that led to the fires, however, are rare occurrences in the lush forests of East Tennessee. As horrible as it was to have two extensive wildfires in six years, experts say it's not necessarily an indication that our fire risk is growing.

But preparing as if our risk is on the rise, especially in the face of climate change, will save lives.

IN IMAGES:How Sevier County residents are rallying after 2022 wildfires destroyed Wears Valley homes

Why aren't major wildfires typical in Tennessee?

Eastern Tennessee has long been mostly immune to the conditions that lead to the type of large-scale wildfires that have destroyed huge swaths of western states.

East Tennessee is protected by a number of factors, including its terrain, vegetation and typically high humidity, explained Tennessee Division of Forestry spokesman Tim Phelps.

In the West, wildfires often spread through “crowning,” where the fire gets into the tops of the trees and spreads quickly. Here, Phelps said, hardwood trees don’t carry fire that way.

“Most are creeping ground fires, the leaf litter layer,” he said. “Typically we keep most fires to an acre or less, most times.”

Tennessee’s driest period tends to be in October and November, Phelps said, but noted, “It’s not unusual to have a couple of large spring fires, we’re talking 100 acres. Last year was unusual, compared to the last five years, but it was not historically unusual.”

The state had a really bad fire season in 2016, with almost 100 fires a day going at the worst point of the season.

“Conditions can get bad here, and our capacity can get tested,” he said.

Since 2016, Phelps said, Tennessee has had record low numbers of wildfires. The historical data shows the number of fires since 1960 is definitely trending downward, he said, adding, “Which is a good sign.”

Forecasting for this year shows a normal wildfire risk.

“We have had adequate and well-timed precipitation, it has kept the ground pretty moist,” he said.

Could climate change make Tennessee more vulnerable to fires?

Regional drought and wildfire risk assessment is not always clear as global temperatures rise, according to experts like Jeff Prestemon, a U.S. Forest Service researcher.

Prestemon has conducted a lot of scientific predictions on climate change and its effect on wildfires. In this region, he said, human-ignited wildfires aren't as big of a risk because of better suppression tools, but lightning-ignited fires could increase.

When all the human and forest factors are pulled together, models show a decline in overall wildfires in East Tennessee. Increased rainfall from climate change is a driving factor.

In comparison to the coastal South regions, Appalachia is not a particularly fire-prone landscape. For one, Prestemon said, it's wetter here.

But droughts like the one that fueled the 2016 fire are rare but can be repeated, Prestemon warned.

"We don't know where, we don't know when, but it's not impossible," he said. "We don't have enough experience with that to know what the future will bring. That's the challenge that requires more science."

Because the Smokies are one of the most popular tourist destinations in the country, fatalities are a huge concern. With higher population densities, a lot more people are exposed to fire danger.

"In Gatlinburg, there were a lot of people in harm's way," he said.

Damage to buildings is a huge concern as well. U.S. Forest Service data shows Sevier County's mountain cabins and businesses have a "very high" wildfire exposure rate. That means a vast majority of homes are directly adjacent to flammable vegetation, increasing the chances they'll be destroyed when a fire breaks out.

What can residents do to decrease wildfire risk?

Any wildfire risk is worth taking seriously. Prestemon said there's room to improve rules around using fire-resistant materials in construction, upgrading evacuation notification systems and mapping out more efficient evacuation routes.

"What we do know is that wildfire prevention works," Prestemon said. "To the extent you can prevent human ignited fires from happening, you will be better off."

Phelps said education is a key, especially as more people build cabins in the woods. Every new construction project puts people into spaces where wildfires can and will break out.

“We live with fire and we have to understand that,” he said. “We encourage landowners to exercise some tips and tricks to protect their own structures (such as) keeping flammable debris off decks and keeping firewood stacked away from the house.”

Liz Kellar is a public safety reporter. Email lkellar@knoxnews.com. Twitter @LizKellar. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Smokies likely to be spared climate change wildfire woes