A deal to free Navalny was in the works before his death

If the Kremlin did kill Alexei Navalny, why now?

The Russian opposition leader’s allies have offered their answer to the question that has hung over his death, alleging that President Vladimir Putin had the jailed dissident killed to thwart an imminent prisoner swap that would have freed him — and two Americans.

Five sources told NBC News that a deal to free Navalny was in the works, although the swap was not thought to be imminent when Navalny's death was announced on Feb. 16. Two of those sources, who were not authorized to speak publicly, said the mooted deal would have included reporter Evan Gershkovich and former Marine Paul Whelan.

Two U.S. officials said that Washington had not directly discussed the idea with Moscow. One said that Putin may have found out that it was under discussion by U.S. and German officials.

The news added to mounting intrigue as Navalny's funeral emerged as a new flashpoint, with his team saying Tuesday that it had been unable to find a venue in Russia willing to hold the event.

Talks with Germany

In a video message published Monday, a close Navalny ally alleged that Putin had the Kremlin critic killed in prison because he was close to being released with two unnamed U.S. citizens in exchange for Vadim Krasikov, a Russian hitman jailed for life in Germany for the brazen murder of a former Chechen militant.

“Alexei Navalny could have right now, today, been in this seat,” Maria Pevchikh said of the alleged swap in the video. “This is not a figure of speech. This could and should have happened.”

She said she had been told the night before Navalny died that discussions to release him were in the final stages. But Putin ultimately decided he did not want to go ahead with the deal out of personal “hatred” for the politician, she added.

Pevchikh did not provide evidence to support her account.

A Western official told NBC News that no formal offer had been made, but that early discussions involving an exchange for Navalny and U.S. citizens were underway. A Western diplomat also said that after two years of talks Germany had agreed to a coordinated trade where Navalny would be released, as well as Gershkovich and Whelan, in exchange for Krasikov.

The deal began to come together before German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Washington on Feb. 9, but was pushed further during White House meetings between the German leader and President Joe Biden, according to the diplomat.

"It looked like Navalny might be in the cards, but no one was counting on it," the Western diplomat said. "The timing was unclear."

A source familiar with the talks told NBC News there had been progress on a swap deal involving Navalny and the Americans, but that it had not completely come together at the time of Navalny’s death.

Krasikov is highly valued by Putin, who has tried to get him back for years. The U.S. had tried to get Germany to release him in a trade for WNBA star Brittney Griner and Whelan, but Germany refused, the source said. Eventually, the Biden administration traded Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who was jailed in the U.S., for Griner.

But the Russians drove a hard bargain, insisting that the exchange had to include only two people, so Whelan was left behind, according to the source.

The difference this time, the source said, was that Navalny had a connection to Germany — where he underwent treatment after a poisoning attempt in 2020 that he blamed on the Kremlin — and trading Krasikov for him could be justified to the German public.

The German government would not comment on the alleged talks, and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that he was not aware of any swap arrangements.

Putin alluded to Krasikov in an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson earlier this month, when asked about the possibility of releasing Gershkovich. Putin called Krasikov a “patriot,” without referring to him by name.

But some observers have raised doubts about the Navalny team's account of Putin thwarting a deal to free him. It’s not clear why the Russian leader might have agreed to such a swap involving Navalny only to “murder him at the last moment to avoid this exchange,” said Sergey Radchenko, a historian and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

A funeral and a flashpoint?

For days after Navalny's death in a remote penal colony north of the Arctic Circle, his family and allies were denied access to his body. His mother, Lyudmila, said she was threatened with the possibility that his body would not be returned at all unless she agreed to a secret funeral.

Navalny’s body was finally returned on Saturday, and his spokesperson, Kira Yarmysh, suggested the focus would now shift to his funeral, saying they were looking for a venue for a “public farewell” by the end of this week.

But on Tuesday, Yarmysh said they had been struggling to find a venue, with some sites refusing because they are fully booked or as soon as Navalny’s name is mentioned. “In one place, we were told that the funeral agencies were forbidden to work with us,” Yarmysh wrote on X, as she pleaded for suggestions of places to hold the event.

It’s unclear what a funeral for the opposition leader could look like as Russian authorities wage a crackdown on dissent not seen since the Soviet era.

It’s also not clear if Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, would be able to return to Russia for the funeral after her direct accusation that Putin had killed him and her vow to continue his work.

Hundreds of people were detained in the days after Navalny’s death for simply laying flowers in his honor at memorials around Russia. The editor of a Moscow weekly newspaper that published a spread on Navalny’s death with his smiling photo on the cover told Reuters the edition was nearly entirely confiscated.

Thousands of people may want to come out to say their final goodbye to Navalny, threatening the kind of mass protest that Russian authorities have sought to stamp out.

Even a peaceful procession of thousands of people could create bad optics for the Kremlin, just weeks ahead of a presidential election that Putin is guaranteed to win.

A close Navalny ally on Tuesday encouraged Russians to heed the late activist’s call to protest the election by appearing at the ballot boxes at noon on March 17. “It doesn’t matter what they will do — who they vote for or if they ruin their bulletins — the important thing is to get there and see each other. That way they will carry out Navalny’s last wish,” Leonid Volkov said.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com