Deegan leads Davis by single point in Jacksonville mayor race, UNF poll finds

Donna Deegan barely leads Daniel Davis by 1 percentage point in the race for mayor as they plunge into the final month of an intense campaign where voters say crime is far and away the biggest problem facing Jacksonville, according to a University of North Florida poll.

The UNF poll put Deegan's support at 48% followed by Davis at 47% in a runoff race that will be decided May 16.

The contest is a "razor-thin race" that will likely come down to whether Republican voter turnout outpaces Democrats as it has in recent city elections, said Michael Binder, faculty director of the UNF Public Opinion Research Lab.

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"Even though we came out with Donna up a point, I think Davis might have just the slightest of advantages, and I say that because what he needs to happen is the Democrats not really showing up, kind of like they haven't the last couple of elections," Binder said.

Conversely, he said if Deegan's campaign can close the gap in turnout, she can benefit from the deep name recognition she has with Duval County residents from her time as a news anchor and founder of the Donna Foundation and its annual marathon.

"She's going to need people knocking on doors, but if she does and they show up, she's in a really good spot," Binder said.

The release of the poll comes four days before voters will have a chance to see Deegan, a Democrat, and Davis, a Republican, face-to-face on the same stage Thursday at UNF during a televised debate moderated by Action News Jacksonville anchors John Bachman and Tenikka Hughes.

In the first election in March, Deegan lead a seven-candidate field by capturing 39.4% of the vote. Davis, who is president and CEO of JAX Chamber, came in next with 24.7%. Davis has consolidated support from Republican voters who previously had split among four Republican candidates in March.

Deegan likewise has Democratic Party voters unified behind her, and she held a lead among non-party affiliated voters, the UNF poll showed.

In tight countywide contests, the Republican Party has typically been able to turn out more voters than the Democratic Party. In the March election, Republicans accounted for 44.3% of voters compared to 41.8% for Democrats. Binder said the ability of Davis and Deegan to energize their supporters will be critical for who prevails in the run-off.

Poll 'drives home' that crime is voters' biggest concern

Crime remains the biggest issue on voters' minds. Binder said compared to previous polls that gave respondents a list of issues and asked them to identify what was most important to them, UNF left it an open-ended question about what they think is Jacksonville's biggest problem.

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Forty-seven percent said it is crime followed by 8% citing housing costs and 7% saying it is education.

"Crime has been at the top of the list for a while, but this really drives home how big an issue this is for Jacksonville voters," he said.

In two other countywide contests on the May 16 ballot, Republican candidates have the lead but more voters are undecided than in the mayor's race.

Jason Fischer, a Republican, gained 47% support and Joyce Morgan, a Democrat, captured 45% in their tight race for property appraiser.

In the City Council At-Large Group 5 race, Chris Miller picked up backing from 45% of respondents and Charles Garrison, a Democrat, was at 38%.

Binder said the poll shows a "significant portion of likely voters who aren't sure who they'll vote for in these races, and they have the potential to shake things up."

In a tease of the mayoral debate at 7 p.m. Thursday at Lazzara Performance Hall at UNF, the poll offered a chance for respondents to submit a question they want the candidates to answer. The moderators will ask selected questions during the debate that will be televised on WJAX-TV and WFOX-TV.

Binder said respondents submitted about 400 questions for consideration in the debate.

He said that with two candidates on stage rather than seven candidates who fielded questions during a first election debate at Jacksonville University in March, he will be watching whether Davis can improve his performance so he appears more comfortable than he did at JU.

Binder said the other factor is whether either candidate makes a gaffe or delivers a "home-run one-liner" that gets replayed for days on local news and shapes the narrative of the campaign going forward.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: University of North Florida poll: Jacksonville mayor race tightens