Defense & National Security — The West braces for a renewed Russian offensive

Ellen Mitchell
·6 min read
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After facing a string of setbacks nearly a year into its war on Ukraine, Russia is planning another major offensive to make up for its losses on the ground and justify its heavy human cost at home.

We’ll share what intelligence analysts and researchers think will happen and when, plus more on the grim outlook coming out of the World Economic Forum’s meeting in Switzerland and the details of a Navy plane crash in Alabama that forced two pilots to eject.

This is Defense & National Security, your guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. For The Hill, I’m Ellen Mitchell. A friend forward this newsletter to you?

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Here’s what Russia’s new offensive might look like

Intelligence analysts and researchers largely agree there is a major offensive brewing in Russia, likely to be launched in Ukraine sometime in the winter or early spring.

  • Still, there is no clear picture of what that will look like and whether Moscow has any real hope of retaking the momentum given Ukraine’s determined resistance and Western backing.  

  • “We have no doubt that the current masters of Russia will throw everything they have left and everyone they can muster to try to turn the tide of the war and at least postpone their defeat,” Ukrainian President Voldymyr Zelensky said in an address earlier this month.

Warnings: Last month, Ukrainian Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, warned Russia is amassing some 200,000 troops for “another go at Kyiv,” in an interview with The Economist, though analysts said an attempt to take the capital was unlikely.

And over the weekend, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released an analysis suggesting Russia is planning a major push in the next six months to “regain the initiative and end Ukraine’s current string of operational successes.”

Possibilities: ISW laid out a list of possible actions the military could take, including an offensive to take complete control of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, launching an effort from ally Belarus in the north or preparing to defend against and exploit a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Donbas.

The most likely course of action is for Russia to seize control over the Donbas, made up of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, both of which share a border with Russia and were among four provinces illegally annexed by Moscow late last year.

A continuation: John Herbst, the senior director of Eurasia affairs for the Atlantic Council, said any Russian offensive over the winter or early spring will likely be part of an effort to take complete control of the Donbas.

  • “The most likely thing is what is continuing in Donbas will continue more,” he said. “That’s the easiest thing for them to do.” 

  • Ukraine also expects any new, major Russian offensive to occur in the Donbas.

Read the full story here

UN secretary-general: World in ‘sorry state’

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said at the World Economic Forum’s meeting of world leaders and corporate executives Wednesday that the world is in a “sorry state” as it faces challenges ranging from climate change to the war in Ukraine.

“I’m not here to sugarcoat … the sorry state of our world. We can’t confront problems unless we look them squarely in the eye. And we are looking into the eye of a Category 5 hurricane,” Guterres told the crowd at the Swiss ski resort of Davos.

A ‘perfect storm‘: Guterres described the “perfect storm” now plaguing the planet, including the economic slowdown and a looming recession, global warming and an ecosystem meltdown, and conflict like the war in Ukraine.

The secretary-general has long sounded alarms about the deadly climate crisis and the existential threat of nuclear weapons, and his address to the annual World Economic Forum meeting underscored the urgency of the compounding issues that are “piling up like cars in a chain reaction crash.”

“Several parts of our planet will be uninhabitable. And for many, it will mean a death sentence,” Guterres said of the world’s rapid warming, deriding Big Oil as a business model “inconsistent with human survival.”

Deepening divides: It would be difficult to solve these variegated crises even in a peaceful and united world, Guterres said, but the world now faces “the gravest levels of geopolitical division and distrust in generations,” evidenced not just in the Ukrainian conflict but in “the decoupling” of the U.S. and China along the East-West divide.

No short-term solutions: Ukraine has been a key focus of the Davos talks, and Guterres wasn’t optimistic that an end to the war is in sight, predicting that peace will be hard to accomplish in the short term.

Read that story here

NAVY TRAINING PLANE CRASHES IN ALABAMA

A Navy training plane crashed in southern Alabama on Tuesday, forcing the two pilots aboard to eject.

The T-6B Texan II aircraft, which took off Tuesday morning from Naval Air Station (NAS) Whiting Field, Fla., crashed near Naval Outlying Landing Field Barin in Foley.

Limited details: The Navy instructor pilot and student aviator in the plane were forced to eject at around 10:50 a.m. local time, with only minor injuries reported, according to NAS Whiting Field public affairs.

The cause of the crash was not immediately known, and the incident is under investigation.

A most deadly year: The Navy in 2022 had 17 Class A manned aviation mishaps — incidents in which someone is killed or that involves damages of $2.5 million or more — up from 10 mishaps in 2021, according to Naval Safety Command data.

The 2022 number reflects the service’s highest total Class A manned mishaps since 2014’s 15 mishaps.

Read the rest here

ON TAP FOR TOMORROW

  • Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will hold a joint press conference with German defense minister in Berlin.

  • The Center for Strategic and International Studies will host a virtual discussion on a new report: “North Korea Policy and Extended Deterrence,” with retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former U.S. Forces Korea commander, at 10 a.m.

  • The Center for Strategic and International Studies will also hold a talk on “Sanctions and the Russian Economy,” at 10 a.m.

  • The International Institute for Strategic Studies will hold a conversation on “The Recalibration of Saudi Foreign Policy,” at 10:30 a.m.

  • The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments will hold a virtual talk on a new report: “Chinese Lessons From the Pacific War: Implications for PLA Warfighting,” at 11:30 a.m.

  • The Atlantic Council will host a virtual discussion on “Strategic threats in Latin America and the Caribbean,” with U.S. Southern Command head Army Gen. Laura Richardson, at 12:30 p.m.

WHAT WE’RE READING

OPEDS IN THE HILL

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