'Delicate dance': Here's how Republican candidates might target Trump during the second GOP debate

WASHINGTON — Republican presidential candidates get another chance Wednesday to do something many of them have been reluctant to try: attacking Donald Trump.

While going after the frontrunner is a time-honored tradition in presidential races, most of the GOP candidates taking the stage at a debate in California have largely soft-pedaled criticism of the former president.

The basic reason: Challengers don't want to alienate the many Republican voters who have backed Trump in the past, voters they'll need if they are to somehow wrest the GOP presidential nomination away from him in 2024.

"You don't go after Trump frontally to appeal to those people," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

So most of the Republican debaters at the Ronald Reagan presidential library in Simi Valley, California, are expected to continue going after him sideways – arguing Trump represents the Republican Party's past, without mentioning that he faces as many as four criminal trials in 2024.

Taking on Trump

As with the first Republican debate last month in Milwaukee, Trump will be absent. The ex-president, saying he doesn't want to give opponents free shots at him, is instead traveling to Michigan to speak with supporters in a battleground state. It's also the epicenter of the ongoing United Auto Workers strike, where workers are protesting the nation's largest auto companies.

But that doesn't mean GOP presidential candidates won't target Trump during Wednesday's debate. In fact, some Republicans have questioned the low-key strategy, saying candidates will have to go after Trump directly if they want any hope of catching him in the polls.

That group includes one of Wednesday's debaters, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

"I’m the only one who will take Trump on," Christie said on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.

Christie has even vowed to change his campaign schedule to follow Trump if he doesn't participate in future debates.

“Wherever he goes, I’ll go. And we’ll wind up talking to each other one way or another," Christie told Fox News’ “MediaBuzz.”

The challengers and Trump

Christie will share the debate stage with candidates who have been more reticent to criticize Trump over his criminal charges, or much else.

They are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

The Republican candidates have preferred to draw contrasts with Trump on issues, for the most part. For example, DeSantis has more often critiqued Trump's record on the border wall with Mexico and federal spending.

But DeSantis, Scott and others have more recently cited Trump for his evolving comments on abortion access. The officials have argued that Trump's position on abortion isn't strict enough for a swath of Republican voters, while the former president has warned that GOP candidates shouldn't stress flat-out opposition to all abortions.

Pence has long criticized Trump for pressuring him to overturn their 2020 election loss to President Joe Biden. But more recently, Pence has questioned Trump-style "populism," calling for a more traditional conservative platform linked to GOP icons, such as former President Ronald Reagan.

During the first debate in Milwaukee, Haley also took a measured approach to argue that voters who aren't sure which candidate to support in 2024 might turn against Trump in a general election.

"We have to look at the fact that three quarters of Americans don’t want a rematch between Trump and Biden," Haley said. "And we have to face the fact that Trump is the most disliked politician in America. We can’t win a general election that way."

Pursuing the 'Maybe Trump' voters

Wednesday's debate will boil down to what Republican political consultant Liz Mair called a "delicate dance" for the GOP challengers. They must define differences with Trump, while elevating themselves and avoiding making voters mad.

"Mostly, they're afraid to attack him because he's more popular and more well-known they are," Mair said, so their messages have to be more about them than him.

Pollsters and political analysts pointed out that the two Republican candidates who attack Trump the most − Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson − also have high unfavorable ratings among GOP voters. Hutchinson failed to qualify for the debate stage because he didn't garner enough support in Republican polls.

As the nation approaches the 2024 race, Republican voters can be broken down into three basic groups, according to Ayres.

There are "Never Trump" voters who make up about 10-to-15% of the electorate; "Always Trump" voters who are around 35% of the party and "Maybe Trump" voters who have the biggest share at 50-to-55% of the GOP vote.

Many of the "Maybe Trump" voters are willing to consider one of the other candidates, but they also don't want to be insulted or mocked for their past support of the ex-president. Ayres said that's why challengers have to be careful in dealing with the Trump factor.

"You can separate yourself from Trump without attacking him," Ayres said.

What could change the Trump dynamic?

But will the dynamic between Trump and the rest of the Republican field change during Wednesday's debate? Maybe, maybe not.

Political analyst Lara Brown, author of "Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants," said challengers will need the support of many past Trump voters if they are to become competitive, and they don't want to alienate them.

"As a result, the candidates are mostly talking about his electability problem in the general election rather than any of the other serious issues," Brown said.

Some Republicans "are concerned that if they hit him too hard or cut too close to the bone," Trump supporters will "cancel" them out of the party altogether," she warned.

Trump's counterattacks

Even as they try to gain ground on Trump among Republican voters, the former president's GOP rivals may also hesitate to publicly criticize him during Wednesday's debate because they don't want to risk Trump hitting back at them.

Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur and likely the most pro-Trump candidate in the 2024 race, did challenge the former president over his administration's failure to overturn former President Barack Obama's health care law.

“My friend Donald Trump promised us: repeal and replace Obamacare," he said. "Eight years later, did it happen? No, it did not. It is a false promise if it is contingent on Congress.”

That drew a strong rebuke from Trump aide Chris LaCivita, who said on X "Here’s a guy itching to be punched."

Trump, who has often launched personal attacks against his opponents, in recent posts on Truth Social criticized some of his opponents as "Sloppy Chris, Lyin’ Mike Pence, Nikki “Birdbrain” Haley, (and) Ron (“Dead Campaign”) DeSanctimonious."

But despite all of these risks, from tempting Trump's own counterattacks to alienating his loyal voters, if Republican candidates are going to confront him, they have to make the move soon. Brown noted that candidates will probably have to be more aggressive with Trump at some point because the Iowa caucuses, the first state-level election of the GOP primary, are rapidly approaching on Jan. 15.

"It would not be surprising to me if things became more contentious and more confrontational regarding Trump," during Wednesday's debate, she predicted.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will Republicans target Donald Trump during the second GOP debate?