Democrat Donna Deegan leads Daniel Davis in latest UNF poll for Jacksonville mayor's race
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Donna Deegan holds a solid 17-point lead in the race for Jacksonville mayor, according to two recent local polls.
The University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab released its latest poll Wednesday morning, just weeks after St. Pete Polls released its own poll – both showing Deegan, a Democrat, leading in the seven person race.
Daniel Davis, a Republican, followed Deegan in each poll, at 20% in UNF’s and 17.5% in St. Pete Polls released Feb. 13.
“Donna Deegan is the clear frontrunner in a crowded field that looks poised to go until May,” Michael Binder, PORL director and UNF professor of political science, said. “That said, 31% of Republican and 24% of Independent voters are still undecided, and that means it could still be anyone’s race.”
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With the March primary election rapidly approaching, UNF poll asked 531 registered, likely voters about a series of issues ranging from the mayor’s race and Confederate monument removal to the success of the Jaguars.
When asked which issues they felt to be most pressing, 37% of UNF poll participants voted crime, followed by education, the economy/jobs and housing costs all at 12%.
UNF polled 292 Democrats and 239 Republicans, and St. Pete Polls included 207 Democrats and 199 Republicans, both polling people of varying races, ethnicities and ages. The results were then weighted to be more representative of the voting population of Duval County.
Deegan in the lead for mayor’s seat
Both polls showed former television news anchor Deegan solidly in the lead for mayor at 37% in the UNF poll and 35% in St. Pete Polls, but around 20% of the voters in both polls had not decided who to vote for.
Davis, president of JAX Chamber, followed in both.
Closely following in succession were Al Ferraro, Audrey Gibson and LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber at 8%, 7% and 5% in the UNF poll.
Ferraro and Cumber both serve on the Jacksonville City Council. Gibson previously represented the county as a member of the state Senate.
Omega Allen, a construction contractor, and Frank Keasler, a Jacksonville lawyer, followed at around 1% each in the UNF poll.
If no individual candidate earns at least 50% plus one vote in March, the two top vote-getters will go to a runoff in May.
The UNF poll asked voters who they would support in that scenario.
Against Davis, the poll showed support for Deegan at 48% to 39%, with 12% undecided.
Against Cumber, the poll showed support for Deegan at 53% to 30%, with 14% undecided.
Against Ferraro, the poll showed support for Deegan at 51% to 35%, with 12% undecided.
Voters stayed largely among political lines in all three cases.
At-Large City Council seats still largely open
For the current City Council, voters were almost evenly split over how much they approved of its progress. For the next council, some races are still up in the air.
The poll showed 45% of participants approved of the job the current council is doing – with only 5% strongly approving – compared to 46% who disapproved – with 19% strongly disapproving.
The poll did not delve into each of the individual races for the next City Council, but it did ask respondents about the three at-large seats still up for grabs. Two incumbents already won their seats by being unopposed at qualifying.
More:Field for Jacksonville City Council elections set, with some races already decided
For at-large group 1, current City Council President Terrance Freeman, a Republican, held a 16-point lead over his Libertarian challenger Eric Parker.
Freeman had heavy support among Republicans with 69% supporting him, but Democrats so far swung toward Parker with 35% support. But 43% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans had not decided who to vote for.
Meanwhile, current Republican council Vice President Ron Salem held a slim 1-point lead over his Democrat challenger Joshua Hicks, with 18% of voters still unsure of their choice.
Of Democrats, 75% said they planned to vote for Hicks. Conversely, 76% of Republicans said they would vote for Salem.
The six-person race for group 5 showed Democrat Charles Garrison in the lead at 16%, followed by Republican Chris Miller and Democrat Nashon Nicks both at 14%.
The race has become more competitive in recent weeks after Garrison filed a lawsuit against Nicks to remove him from the ballot due to questions regarding his residency, Jacksonville news outlet The Tributary reported.
Question of Confederate monuments still dividing voters
In what Binder called the “contentious” debate over the removal of Confederate monuments, the vote was close.
The issue has arisen again in recent months – with heated back-and-forth exchanges among members of the public during City Council meetings and mounting rallies for removal.
The poll showed 51% of the voters surveyed opposed their removal from public spaces, while 45% supported removal. The breakdown rested heavily on political party and race.
More:Jacksonville City Council promises but doesn't deliver on deciding fate of Confederate monuments
Of the Democrats polled, 79% supported removal while 83% of Republicans opposed it.
Of likely white voters, 32% approved of removal – compared to 78% of Black and 56% of Hispanic participants who approved.
Do you ‘DUUUVAL’?
The city may be split over whether they shouted ‘DUUUVAL’ this year – 48% said yes compared to the 50% who said no – but surveyed voters altogether felt favorably about the Jaguars’ progress this year.
The poll showed 84% of the participants felt it was important for the city to have an NFL franchise. Additionally, 84% of respondents approved of Doug Peterson’s job as a coach, and 86% approved of Trevor Lawrence’s job as a quarterback.
Still, they remained hesitant toward fully taxpayer funded stadium renovations.
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The poll asked if voters would support the city spending up to $750 million on renovations, to which 61% said no. The poll did not ask if voters would support the city paying for a smaller part of the improvements.
The exact cost of renovations has not been solidified, but it is likely a question for the next mayor and City Council.
“After a winning season, it’s not entirely shocking to see such high approval for the Jaguars and it’s clear that voters care quite a bit more for Trevor Lawrence and company than any of our elected officials,” Binder said.
“With the Mayor’s office and City Council seats up for grabs next month, it will be interesting to see how the new administration, whomever it may be, handles potential stadium negotiations.”
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: UNF releases election poll on mayoral race, confederate monument, city council
